One for today.
3.15 Southwell Red Aggressor 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed where possible)
Clive Brittain's horses returning from an absence of 100 days or more have maintained an Actual versus Expected ratio of 1.19 (quite impressive, for those who aren't into statistics!) over the past ten seasons, and that alone is one reason to expect Red Aggressor to be tuned up for this return to action after an absence. He raced only twice last summer and clearly wasn't right, but previously kept much more exalted company than this, strong and all as this contest is. The selection retains a Lincoln entry, which is interesting, and it is interesting Clive has persevered with him. The trainer's horses traditionally go very well here, and sire Red Clubs' progeny boast an 18% strike rate at the track. Many of these look exposed, but although it takes a leap of faith to trust Red Aggressor off a mark of OR90, there are reasons to suggest he is big at the prices. I'd make him a 16/1 shot in this company and, with a good draw and the stable's preferred jockey interestingly taking his second ride of the year, double carpet is too big.
Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +0.00 / year: +55.31
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