Tuesday 19th February 2013

Two races of interest for this afternoon.

3.25 Southwell

Abi Scarlet 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Imprimis Tagula 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

An interesting race, and while Light Burst might pick these up and carry them, I feel he is as likely to find little off the bridle or fail to act act the track - as such he makes no appeal as a horse with no fibresand experience. Piceno hasn't really done it this winter, and Flying Pickets seems to have one level he operates at, but he isn't much better than OR70 at his best. Abi Scarlet is a two time course winner representing Hughie Morrison, whose horses have an awesome record at this track. She hasn't run in 153 days, but Morrison is well capable of readying horses and she makes plenty of appeal at the prices. It is interesting she is kept in training off a mark of OR80, and connections presumably feel there is more to come, especially given she is quite lightly raced. The concern would be stall three, but if Hayley can stay well away from the rail she will have every chance.

Imprimis Tagula received a very "eye catching" ride last time, and has now become very well handicapped. A look at the video of his last race would basically suggest to me that it wasn't the day, and he has taken plenty of overnight support and betting even before 9am. This would be in line with the owner's general modus operandi and if Abi Scarlet doesn't land the spoils, I'd like to have something running onto Alan Bailey's horse too, with the stable having snapped a losing run just lately.

5.10 Southwell Follow The Flag 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Described by his trainer as "bone idle", Follow The Flag tends to do what Follow The Flag wants to do, but he is another who is well handicapped even on this winter's efforts. He has had excuses for his last two runs, and there is a strong suggestion today's race will be set up perfectly for him. Our Ivor and Miami Gator are highly likely to take each other on again, and if Follow The Flag is still travelling well in behind them down the straight, he can pick them up if he consents to run on. It is interesting his best Southwell form has been in small fields, and two non-runners leave us with the dead eight here which will suit him perfectly. A new jockey can sometimes work wonders for a old horse, and John Fahy rode a winner for the stable the other day and has been seen to good effect for most of the winter (10% strike rate, +18.74 l.s.p.). 

Profit & loss: day: -4.60 / month: -13.40 / year: +41.91