Tuesday 5th February 2013

The return of Southwell today is particularly welcome for us, given how profitable it has been for us over the years. Hats off to all the staff who managed to get the meeting back on in what must have been difficult circumstances.

We have to selections for Tuesday.

3.40 Southwell Mazovian 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 11/1 Generally guaranteed)

Southwell is expected to ride Standard To Slow this afternoon, which will tend to bring course specialists to the fore and with only four of the nine runners here having won at Southwell, there is some value in how the market has been priced up. Mazovian is very interesting at double figure odds. The selection has a really good record here and represents a small trainer whose horses have been running very well this winter. He is back on a winning handicap mark, and although this is a higher class of race than he generally runs in, the top four in the weights look opposable. There is also some statistical suggestion that U.S.A. bred horses do even better when the going description contains the word "slow"; also horses carrying weights less than 8-07 in handicaps have a profitable record when the going is slow - Mazovian qualifies on that stat here. Noel Garbutt, who has won on the horse before, claims 7lb, and given that the horses' four wins have all come under claiming riders, it looks a shrewd move. With question marks about the ability of many of his rivals to handle prevailing conditions, the selection makes plenty of each-way appeal at the prices.

4.40 Southwell Mazij 3pts win @ 16/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Mazij is a bit of a moody mare who tends to throw in a shocker and follow it up with an easy win, with that in mind she is probably a "boom or bust" selection and as likely to finish last as first. She is a course and distance winner, however, and a quick look at her form will tell you she is much better in small fields. She likes to get her own way in front and as a relatively small horse, she doesn't seem to enjoy company or being bustled about between horses. A small field today should be right up her street, and if she can sit handy and stay out of trouble she might have a going day. The trainer's horses have been running better than market expectations just lately, and her last run wasn't as bad as the formbook suggests - she was still in the lead a furlong or so from home and was eased when her chance had gone. Anything 12/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +0.50 / year: +55.81