Wednesday 20th February 2013

One selection for Wednesday evening.

7.30 Kempton Elna Bright 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

We've backed Elna Bright on both his last starts and I think there is good reason to go in again tonight. We took place money when he finished second at Lingfield in December, before he finished 9/10 after a break in one of the hottest sprint races run all winter at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago. The result doesn't tell the full story though, he tanked along at the head of affairs having drifted badly before the off. He may well have needed the race, and it is interesting he drops into the weakest company he has contested in in quite a while this evening, having dropped from OR86 to OR84 and become eligible for 0-85 handicaps. There isn't much pace on here but that doesn't bother me, the selection actually has plenty of form in small fields and when the pace hasn't been strong - the key is getting him to settle and using his finishing burst wisely. Jimmy Quinn has won on him, and provided the selection settles better here I think he will go close - he has the best speed figure at this track by some way, and the price of the favourite (11/8) looks crazy given he hasn't run at this trip since his debut (well beaten).

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Afternoon bet:

One selection for this afternoon. We may have an evening bet in addition, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.55 Doncaster Cocacabana 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

A handicap hurdle with sixteen runners, but one which looks higher on quantity than quality, and many of these have been either out of form or have questions to answer regarding current well being, and haven't been doing it on the track this winter. Cocacabana is one of a small number of exceptions. He made his debut for Peter Bowen in January and performed respectably, before staying on best of anything from off the pace on heavy ground, again at Ffos Llas, earlier this month in a stronger looking contest than this. He has always given the impression that better ground will suit him, and the transfer to Bowen - who specialises in spring and summer horses running on good ground - would seem to suggest the new trainer thinks there is room for manoeuvre off his current handicap mark on better ground. He is proven over three miles, and the way he stayed on at Ffos Llas would suggest a stronger pace at this trip, combined with good going, can bring about improvement. Having won in February and March of last year, I would suggest he is a spring horse and I think Bowen has him out a little early to rack up a couple of penalties and have some fun with him at the spring festivals. Anything in double figures is too big, and we'll play each-way.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -24.40 / year: +30.91