Careful on the staking here, note the extra 1pt win.
This is a dire contest, and although Brandy Snapping is moderate herself, there is some suggestion that she might be overpriced here off a mark of just OR47. The selection ran an eye catching race last time out over twelve furlongs, pulling too hard off a moderate early pace over a trip which probably stretches her. She appeared to get tired before getting hampered, but stayed on quite well again towards the finish. Her best previous effort came over today's course and distance, and the drop back to ten furlongs looks set to suit her. Her effort over ten came last March, and that maiden form might just be a little better than what is on offer here, so there is hope given that she has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper since her last run. She is well drawn, fitness won't be an issue, and if she has enough ability to win a little race, conditions suggest that tonight's race might be the right one for her.
8.05 Kempton Captain Kendall 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
A short enough price so I've kept stakes to 4pts. Saying that, I make the selection a 15/8 shot here and I think he is a progressive sprinter, so I'm happy to support him against horses who look more exposed. The selection's last run came over seven furlongs at Lingfield, he saw plenty of daylight and probably wasn't suited by the step up to seven furlongs. He is well drawn tonight, and this race looks loaded with pace - I expect that to suit Captain Kendall down to the ground. We're taking the chance that the gaps come at the right time, but the handicap mark looks right and Adam Kirby, who has been nothing short of excellent this winter, takes the ride.
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Afternoon bets:
One selection for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow - details at 4.00pm.
2.00 Southwell Marshall Art 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 10/1 Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed) - WON
A wide draw was what you wanted yesterday and there is every chance today will be the same. A chance is taken here on Marshall Art, who has run here before and actually travelled ok when a 100/1 chance in a maiden but was completely outclassed in the end. He has decent recent form for Dave Evans, whose stable are having a fine winter, and his early speed and prominent style of racing are perfect for this course. He will need to get a good early position, but the 5lb claimer rode him last time out and was able to get him out early and sit on the lead - he was taken on for the lead over seven furlongs on that occasion, the drop to six should be no problem this afternoon. We'll cover the stake with a part each-way bet. He appeals as the bet of the card at Southwell.
Profit & loss: day: +38.50 / month: +39.00 / year: +94.31
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