Saturday 30th March 2013

A brilliant week for us so far, no matter what happens today. We have two selections, no bets tomorrow so next daily e-mail will be on Monday.

2.55 Kempton Spifer 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A progressive animal from the Botti stable, who was unsuited by a slow pace last time out over ten furlongs here and just failed to reel in the winner who got first run. That horse went on to finish a close second in the Winter Derby, and is now rated OR101. Tinshu, who finished fourth, went on to finish fourth in the Winter Derby and the form of that race has a really solid look to it. The selection is a course and distance winner and looks very well handicapped off OR91 in light of his improving form. Adam Kirby has had a winter to remember and he takes the ride.

4.15 Doncaster Eastern Destiny 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 6/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, Independents, guaranteed) - WON

Eastern Destiny represents Richard Fahey, whose stable are in very good form - his turf horses are forward and most are fit enough to win first time up if good enough on the day. The selection is an improving filly who impressed with her attitude when beating Deia Sunrise at Chester, in receipt of weight. That filly reversed form next time out when the selection got no run, posting an RPR of 102 and is now rated OR97. the form looks strong and I'm inclined to forgive the selection that run on heavy ground where she had legitimate excuses. Given that she has only has seven runs and only two as a two year old (July debut) I would suggest she is a filly they have taken their time with who has yet to fully grow into her frame. I would suggest she can improve this season again and the booking of Tony Hamilton, who won on her under a good hold up ride at Chester (tactics I like at Doncaster) is a positive.

Profit & loss: day: +15.40 / month: +66.85 / year: +89.66

Thursday 28th March 2013

Another profitable day yesterday and March has been a decent month.

One race of interest this afternoon.

Our next bets will be on Saturday, but we may have an Aintree ante post or Saturday price alerts before then, notice will be given where possible.

4.20 Wolverhampton 

Ishikawa 3pts each-way @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Saint Thomas 1pt win @ Betfair SP (or take 22/1 guaranteed)

While a lack of pace worries me somewhat, I think Ishikawa is the best horse in this race and remains progressive. The race he was second in last time out is working out well, and his form and profile look stronger than that of the favourite Watt Broderick. I think he is a potential drifter on course and at 7/2 or better, is worth backing each-way. His profile is very solid and I think it is likely he'll be in the first three. Jockey Fergus Sweeney has ridden him to all four career victories and he takes the ride today. A handicap mark of OR74 is one he can win off judged on his last time out performance and he carries weight well (all four wins carrying 9 stone plus).

The potential fly in the ointment is Saint Thomas. He has a very good record fresh and represents the stable and jockey who won this race last year. Jim Mackie has his string in winning form and it would seem likely the selection will be tuned up given his previous form coming back from a break. The trip might be on the sharp side but at the prices he is worth having a saver on.

Profit & loss: day: +11.60 / month: +51.45 / year: +74.26

Wednesday 27th March 2013

Fairy Wing was an impressive winner yesterday and the 8/1 was a bit of a gift.

Two for this afternoon.

1.30 Lingfield Tenbridge 3pts each-way @ 7/2 (Bet 365, VC Bet, William Hill, Independents, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 6/1

There are two horses who could be considered progressive in this field, one is generally 11/10 and the other, Tenbridge is 7/2. The rest of these look very average and with Mary's Pet likely to set a decent gallop, I'm inclined to support Tenbridge each-way. She looks very well handicapped off a mark of OR52 based on her last run, headgear seems to be working and her stable have recently come back to form following a period in the doldrums. This looks a smart each-way bet at the prices.

5.15 Lingfield Thecornishcowboy 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

Was let down around Christmas following a busy period and resumed with two decent efforts, better than the bare result last time out when amateur ridden in a very messy race. The selection needs holding up and the booking of Graham Lee for the ride this afternoon looks a positive. The favourite might be very good in time but he is inexperienced and had the race fall in his lap last time out. The selection is the main danger in my view, I think he remains progressive and he is 9lb better off with Tingo In The Tale for a 1 1/2 length and short head defeat in December when the race didn't pan out for him (and it was at the end of a busy period). I make him a 5/1 shot here.

Profit & loss: day: +28.60 / month: +39.85 / year: +62.66

Tuesday 26th March 2013

One selection for Tuesday.

3.30 Southwell Fairy Wing 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

This price is based solely on the pounds and ounces merchants knowing that the selection takes his chance here off 9lb worse terms than when beating Thorpe Bay over six furlongs on Saturday. It fails to take into account a couple of factors, though. The selection was making his fibresand debut that day, and overcame the coffin box stall 1 draw over the six furlongs at Southwell - a feat not often achieved. He had no problem with the kickback, and looked a natural on the surface. He has won off higher marks than this, and it has to be said he didn't get the best of rides the other day - he was in front travelling well far too soon, but he really put his head down and battled for the win. A strong pace is likely today with Rambo Will and Spic N Span in the line up, and that will suit Fairy Wing perfectly. Martin Harley should simply sit in behind the leaders from stall five and make his challenge inside the furlong. He is four times the price of Thorpe Bay, and has won a handicap carrying 10-0 before so the fact that he carries 9-9 doesn't bother me. 8/1 looks very good each-way value.

Profit & loss: day: +27.60 / month: +11.25 / year: +34.06

Sunday 24th March 2013

One bet for this afternoon, in the Irish Lincoln.

4.30 Curragh Ansaab 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ansaab was the only horse to really give Sharestan a race last year, and subsequent events have shown he had an impossible task - Sharestan is a good quality, improving Group 2 animal and was probably laid out for last year's contest. The selection has been lightly raced since, but it is likely connections have targeted this race for some time and I don't buy the recent quote that he has been "a little behind" - they said the same and punted him off the boards last year! I think the ground will be fine and his Curragh run after the Lincoln would suggest he is well handicapped off a mark of OR93. The negative might be a low draw, but I think the ground will be fine for him and in a year when the race doesn't seem to have a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper apart from Tandem who I don't fancy, I make him a 9/1 shot so anything in double figures represents decent value.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -16.35 / year: +6.46

Saturday 23rd March 2013

The weather has affected today's racing badly and we only have one remaining interest.

2.35 Southwell Ryedale Dancer 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 20/1 VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed)

A moderate filly but one by Refuse To Bend, whose progeny have an outstanding 29% strike rate at this course. The selection was having only her third fibresand start last time out when she showed up very well but was pressured hard on the lead. She also came from stall 1 that day which is a big negative at this track, because the surface next to the rail rides slower. On her previous start, she had run Upper Lambourn to two lengths and was probably a bit better than her finishing position. Stall eight this afternoon is a much better draw and she looks overpriced at the odds - she should be more like a 12/1 shot in my view and is well worth backing each-way.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -11.35 / year: +11.46

Friday 22nd March 2013

Today marks the start of the flat season and we move into an abyss in terms of knowledge of the form, and in terms of knowing what horses are fit, and important details like what  condition tracks are in and are there any potential biases that haven't yet been discovered. In previous years, we've tried to second guess these variables with a certain degree of success (and a certain degree of failure!), but I pointed out at the start of the year that there would be particular times of the year that our Betfair SP multiple horse betting method would come into its own, and this is one of them - in fact between now many of our flat bets will be based on it in the next couple of weeks or so before the form settles down. You're going to see a of bad favourites, unraced two year olds winning unfancied, unfit hotpots beaten, and such like. Where possible we plan to take advantage.

Today sees our first opportunity of such.

1.25 Doncaster

5pts split evenly between Fuel Injection, Mops Angel, Kraka Gym, Picks Pinta, Bridge Of Avon, Sleaford, Red Biba all @ Betfair SP

Today we get a soft ground Brocklesby, which while not unheard of does give punters in general a headache. The ability of these juveniles is obviously a complete unknown, as is their ability to act on the ground and their fitness. It's a given that Bill Turner and Dave Evans will have their representatives tuned up, but do you really want to be taking 4/1 about a horse in this field? Donny Rover looks the best on paper but he might have to go to the front from stall 17 and Doncaster is the hardest track statistically in the UK to win at having been in front one furlong from home. What we do know is that nine of the last ten Brocklesby winners have been amongst the ten oldest horses in the field, with most of the winners being in the top five oldest horses. I find it interesting that four of the five market principals fail this trend. On Betfair, Mops Angel, Fuel Injection, Sleaford and Picks Pinta are all 20/1+, yet they make up four of the oldest five horses in the field, along with the favourite Mick's Yer Man. The other longshots include Bridge Of Avon, a second entry for Mel Brittain who had a horse run third in this last year, Kraka Gym, who represents last year's winning stable, and the outsider of the bunch Red Biba.

It might well be the Bill Turner horse goes and wins, but make no mistake this is the time of year to take advantage of unknowns which have not been factored into betting markets and I think there is great value to be had by backing the bottom seven in the market here. My hope would be that none of them get backed off the boards towards the off, but that's the chance you take. We'll split our stake for a total of five points at Betfair SP, our only interest this afternoon. I would be quite confident of making a decent return from this method over the next couple of weeks. If you don't have a Betfair account, take fixed odds guaranteed.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -6.35 / year: +16.46

Wednesday 20th March 2013

Just the one for this evening.

8.45 Kempton Brimstone Hill 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Sporting Bet, Bluesquare, Stan James, Betpack.com, 888 Sport) - E/W  2nd

Hard to know why this has drifted apart from the fact that he steps back in trip this evening. Brimstone Hill looks progressive and has been really consistent this winter without getting his head in front. He steps back to a mile here and given that he tends to travel well, that might suit him and a stronger early gallop might bring him into contention at the business end of the race. He has run really well on his last two starts posting RPR84's each time, and a mark of OR79 looks fair as a result. Some of these are returning from absences and / or look exposed, the selection is a nice double figure price and on recent form, and with Togers Tale to potentially set a decent gallop, he looks a good each-way proposition.

Profit & loss: day: +4.00 / month: -1.35 / year: +21.46

Tuesday 19th March 2013

Two for today.

3.50 Southwell Jack Dawkins 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Jack Dawkins is in the form of his life and races over his ideal course this afternoon. He has recorded some very decent times on the fibresand, and for a horse in such good form I think the price discrepancy between him and Stand Guard is too great. I'd make the selection a 3/1 shot here and for that simple reason he must be backed. It could be an idea to trade out around 6/4 in running if you want to lock in a profit.

4.50 Southwell Follow The Flag 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Won the last time he raced over course and distance and with his ideal conditions of a smal field and wide draw, he should be able to run on strongly when others have tired as is his want. It is anyone's guess whether he'll put it all in in the finish, his trainer is the first to say he's bone idle, but he picks up a race from time to time and from his current handicap mark, looks a bet today.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -5.35 / year: +17.46

Saturday 16th March 2013

I hope you all enjoyed Cheltenham, we finished in profit with two 20/1 winners, 16/1 and 25/1 and 12/1 placers, and good each-way return from a few non account bets. More on that when I tally up our scores. I would have likes one more winner, but you can't be choosy at Cheltenham and we certainly did better than most services out there - strike rate has never been our most important thing.

Just the one selection for Saturday and I'll post it early.

3.30 Lingfield - The Winter Derby - Ansgar 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (VC Bet, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Comes over from Ireland from Sabrina Harty's yard. Ansgar is a front runner who has taken really well to the all weather and won last twice at Dundalk. He beat Akasaka last time out, in fact having that rival cooked from the home turn having set hard fractions. Akasaka has since won impressively off OR95. It would appear Ansgar has developed late, he is a big horse and may have taken time to fill his frame. He is now two from three on the surface and I think he can step up to Listed class. Given that connections have prepared him for this race, and sent Declan McDonagh over to ride him, I would suggest they feel he is up to it too.

What is really interesting is the lack of pace pressure in the race. Go through the ten year trends and you'll see no fewer than five of the last ten winners of this race have made all, the other five having raced prominently. The selection has come up trumps with a stall 2 draw, and if the trend is maintained and he is up to class, I can see a very bold showing. The speculation here is whether he is up to that class, but I certainly think he can progress and aside from Premio Loco, nothing else in the race looks rock solid. The price compensates us well for the speculation, and Ansgar will be our only bet for Saturday.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +3.65 / year: +26.46

Friday 15th March 2013

You don't need many 20/1 winners to have a good Cheltenham, and although we had to make do with place money from Smad Place thereafter, Benefficient's victory in the Jewson yesterday put us well ahead for the day. It is particularly satisfying to grab an extra 5 or 6 points profit by using Betfair SP for part of our bet. Race times would suggest Bryan Cooper gave him a tremendous waiting ride from the front but I think he was much the best horse on the day and had plenty left in the tank.

There is rain moving in on Cheltenham. It is hard to know how much, satellite pictures suggest it is an hour away yet but it seems likely there'll be some sort of downfall. That would worry me slightly for Shadow Catcher, who I think will be best on faster ground, but at this stage it would take a major downpour to have a big effect on the ground by 2.00pm.

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m1f

Stockton's Wing 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

A fascinating renewal and all the talk from the Irish camp is of how Our Conor is going to win by five lengths. He might well do, but Charles O' Brien has a very good line on the form given that his Stockton's Wing was two and a half lengths behind Our Conor before Christmas. Why bother showing up for the gig if he is booked for second best? Well, there are reasons to suggest the selection can reverse the form. Firstly, a strong pace and big field look tailor made for the selection, who looks a really hardy type and a proper battler. He is in fact by Jeremy, Our Conor's sire, and the look quite alike. Secondly, the booking of Tony McCoy. The pair look like a match made in heaven to me and I expect McCoy will get a real tune out of him. Only Charles O'Brien will know how far his horse has come physically and mentally since he was behind Our Conor, but he did give that rival two to three lengths head start and Our Conor was able to pull away only after the selection got upsides. I don't think there is that much between them, one is 3/1 and the other is 20/1 - choice made. Of course, the English horses have a much better record in this race and although Irish novices have cleaned up this week, there is a fair chance this goes to Rolling Star or Far West. Saying that, Our Conor's form looks strong and we're getting 5/1 on our horse running a place which looks very good value.

2:05 Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cl1 2m1f

Shadow Catcher 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @25/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed - get 5 places paid)

Princeton Plains 1pt each way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed - get 5 places paid)

Having had a good look at the field I really did think that, outside of a top performance from Cotton Mill, this might go to an Irish horse. The Boylesports Hurdle in January and Paddy Power Hurdle in February at Leopardstown are the places to look for potential winners of this, but what I did notice is that many of those who have come out of the Boylesports have disappointed since. It was run on an absolute quagmire and to my mind has to have taken plenty out of anything that ran well in it. Enter Gordon Elliot, who is a very shrewd trainer, particularly when plotting up a horse for a handicap. I attended a Maynooth preview evening in 2012 where he lambasted Andrew Lynch (who was also on the panel and took it in good humour) for winning 16 lengths over Chicago Grey in his Cheltenham prep, on soft ground - something which Elliot suggested would bottom the horse (and I agreed with). Elliot's sentiments proved true in my view, and the horse disappointed at Cheltenham. Knowing that Gordon is astute when it comes to these things, it was interesting watching his Shadow Catcher (10/1 when disappointing in the Triumph last year) getting an easy time of it out the back in the Boylesports, simply experiencing the big field and getting some fitness into him. The word is Shadow Catcher worked well with Wednesday's winner Flaxen Flare, and like his stablemate he gets first time headgear (cheekpieces) and the assistance of Davy Condon in the plate.

Princeton Plains is a horse with plenty of form on undulating tracks who seems to have been plotted up for this, much like Alderwood was last year for the same connections (we were on at 33/1). He has been well backed overnight and it is no wonder, he was never really put in the race last time in the Betfair Hurdle and he looked on good terms with himself, and physically impressive with it. This horse ran a cracker in the Galway Hurdle as a novice, having met trouble in running with the race not really panning out for him at all, and it appears he has been prepared with a spring festival campaign in mind. 16/1 is too big today and the services of Tony McCoy are a bonus.

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1 Cl1 3m

Non account bet: African Gold each-way @ 6/1 (Generally, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Not a race we'll bet in. Nigel Twiston-Davies horses have been in excellent form this week, and his African Gold is well fancied by connections. He has a good attitude and his form has a particularly solid look to it. He will relish this test, and he is another King's Theatre. Ironically Cue Card, one of the only King's Theatres we didn't back yesterday, went on to win the Ryanair impressively.

3:20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 Cl1 3m2f110y

Captain Chris 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

...Which leads us nicely on to another King's Theatre. Arkle runners of two years previous have a good recent record in this contest - Kicking King was second two years before his Gold Cup, War Of Attrition was seventh before winning this two years later. Captain Chris won the Arkle before losing his way a bit, but he seems to have come back a much better horse this season and his last two runs have probably been lifetime bests. They have all been right handed, but the horse has performed admirably at the last two festivals and I think he is an out and out stayer now. He almost won the King George, and followed that up by going close to beating Cue Card, who has just won the Ryanair Chase by nine lengths posting an RPR 174, by nine lengths. This horse's form is stacking up extremely well, and I think Good or Good to Soft ground and today's trip are perfect for him. He has hit that crucial RPR170 the last twice, and with a bit of luck on his side this afternoon I think he can go close. Bob's Worth is the best horse in the race in my view, but some of Henderson's other horses who have had interrupted preps have run below par (Simonsig, despite winning, Grandouet) and the stable haven't had as dominant a festival as last season on the whole. If Captain Chris's jumping holds up going left handed (didn't bother him in the Arkle), and the rain doesn't turn this into a complete stamina test, then I think he has a fine chance.

4:00 CGA Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup Cl2 3m2f110y

Non account bet: Cottage Oak each-way @ 10/1 (Vc Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents) - E/W 3rd

Not a race I generally have any interest in. Henry, who helps out with some of the Irish and pointing form as many of you will know, has mentioned that he fancies this horse to quite strongly and he has a good record in the race over the years. On that basis, I certainly couldn't discourage those of you who want to have an interest to back him each-way.

4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y

Non account bet: Village Vic each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Again, not a race I'm interested in from a betting point of view. Village Vic was well regarded by the Hobbs stable but things didn't go to plan during the year. He has decent form with The New One, though, and seems adaptable with regard to ground. The booking of a top conditional is the icing on the cake and, if we weren't so busy will bets elsewhere, this would be next on the list. He looks worth backing each-way.

5:15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap)

Petit Robin 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Tatenen 1pt win @ Betfair SP AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP (Currently available at 50/1 generally guaranteed for those without Betfair)

It would be nice to go out on a high here! Petit Robin seems rejuvenated this year, and his back form over fences with the likes of Master Minded and Well Chief sticks out like a sore thumb in this company. His performances in winning two handicap hurdles this season before finishing second in the Ladbroke have been top drawer, he then posted an RPR of 160 behind My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle. There is no reason to doubt his ability over fences, and with him having posted an RPR of 167 behind Master Minded in the rerouted Tingle Creek as recently as December 2010, he makes plenty of appeal off a mark of OR155 today - with the pilot he has struck up such a good rapport with claiming a further 7lb off his back (which he is well worth). 16/1 looks a very fair price each-way, expect him to be well backed if the rain gets heavy.

Tatenen caught my eye in the December Gold Cup over 2m5f here. His jumping was pretty stunning, and I earmarked him for Ascot in January as usual, but the meeting was called off. The selection ultimately capitulated and was outclassed in December, but he steps right back in trip today and he has no shortage of pace. A drifting price on Betfair before his Ascot race in February may have suggested he was held up over the winter by weather or what not, but stable and jockey picked up fifth placed prize money with a no hoper in the Champion Chase earlier this week and that horse ran quite well considering. The handicapper has dropped Tatenen 5lb to a mark he can win off, and if he gets in a rhythm he could be hard to peg back. I can't see anyone backing him, because it's an our of the ballpark selection, so he is well worth a point win and place on Betfair at a potentially huge price.

Profit & loss: day: -12.75 / month: +8.65 / year: +31.46

Thursday 14th March 2013

Lord Windermere was a massive highlight yesterday, landing a 3pts win ante post bet which was advised at 20/1, showing how quickly profits can add up. I hope some of you traded out of your Lyreen Legend bets, or even had the reverse forecast, it was nice to see them coming up the hill clear and we called the race perfectly. For what it's worth, I think he'd have won even if Boston Bob has stood up (a mute point, it's called the R.S.A. Chase because fencing is one of the tests!).

Both non account bets returned a small profit, Godsmejudge sticking on for third and Wishful Thinking ridden to challenge for second as we said he would be - he also picked up place money in the advised "without the favourite" market.

We actually got lucky because at least three horses took bad steps on a false patch of ground around the bend at the top of the hill. Lord Windermere was one, which only adds merit to his victory. Sizing Europe was the second I noticed. Milo Milan was the third, and I think Paul Moloney eased him immediately costing us five points, but that is understandable when you have a really good one like that in your yard - Evan Williams won't want to have bottomed him in that race and mark my words although it is annoying today, it will pay off in the long term.

Another absolutely brilliant day's racing on Thursday, a jaw dropping card again.

1:30 Cheltenham - Jewson Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f

Benefficient 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed),

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - WON

By Beneficial out of a Supreme Leader mare - the breeding screams Cheltenham Festival and I expect the selection to improve on the faster ground. In five chase starts, he has only been out of the first two once, at Leaopardstown last Christmas when he ran below his rating on soft ground. His trainer describes him as a good moving horse who will be better on faster ground. What I find interesting is his form behind Harry Topper at Newbury last November, when connections took the trouble to book Tony McCoy. He had Harry Topper beaten but idled and lost concentration, that rival is probably an OR160 horse on his best form and having won since, the form has a solid look to it. That akes the addition of a first time hood really interesting today - it should serve to keep his concentration on the job at hand. This doesn't look the best renewal apart from Dynaste, and I'm happy to desert Captain Conan and Aupcharlie in favour of the selection who I feel might be the improver. Texas Jack's form has been franked but I'm not sure he will have this run to suit. Some of the other formlines (including Dynaste's) have taken knocks in recent days, but Benefficient has that interesting Newbury form to his name and I am inclined to side with him at the prices, particularly with a few of the trainers horses showing up well at this meeting.

2:05 Cheltenham - Pertemps Final (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m

Non account bet: Bouggler each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed, get 5 places each-way)

I usually have a bet in this, some of you will remember we backed Oscar Park to win this back in 2007 (20/1), but we have enough selections on the account today and this would be a more speculative choice. The selection has some back form including the odd promising run at this track, and I expect him to outrun his price. Saying that, this looks very competitive and is probably anyone's race.

2:40 Cheltenham - Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f

Menorah 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Boylesports, Coral, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed)

A really good renewal. Outside of First Lieutenant, I think Cue Card will want for stamina, Riverside Theatre hasn't been right since last year, and Champion Court was beaten in his prep when he should have won. Menorah is a horse I have always liked, and I think Philip Hobbs horses have been in much better form this season. His defeat of Hunt Ball at Christmas was smart form, and he is another by King's Theatre who will improve for spring ground. In addition, the presence of Cue Card and Champion Court might mean this is run to suit, and I think Johnson will pop him around similar to the way he did with Wishful Thinking yesterday, picking the leaders off one by one. I think a good round of jumping should ensure a place at least, and with the dead eight running he looks very good each-way value against a strong favourite.

3:20 Cheltenham - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m

Already advised ante post:

Get Me Out Of Here 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (William Hill, Non Runner No Bet, 12/1 Boylesports, brucebetting.com, Blue Square, 888 Sport, all NRNB)

Also: Smad Place 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, VC Bet, Coral, independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Not a vintage renewal. We have Get Me Out Of Here ante post and we're on at the right prices. Those who aren't on should still get on at 9/1 with a bit of shopping around. The selection has stamina to prove, but he is an out and out Cheltenham horse who turns up here every year and runs well. He is a nine year old but is very lightly raced, and if this trip ekes out some improvement, he can take a hand in the finish.

Smad Place represents the very recently resurgent Alan King, and the form of his third behind Big Bucks in this race last year looks strong. His defeat by Reve De Sivola can be put down to the ground conditions, and he is another horse who will only improve for better ground this afternoon. At double figure odds last night, he was far too big a price. He had been overlooked until attracting support yesterday off the back of the King Coral Cup 1-2, and the 9/1 and 10/1 available now are still too big in my view. King has kept him fresh deliberately, instead of running him through the winter on bad ground - there have been no hold ups in his preparation that I know of.

4:00 Cheltenham - Byrne Group Plate (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f

Bless The Wings 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Theatre Guide 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A really interesting handicap, but I'm keen to take on the top of the market. Bless The Wings is another from Alan King's stable. This course and distance winner won twice during the winter and looked very progressive and game, bit disappointed behind Katenko on a bog last time out. I am happy to forgive him that run based on the ground and I simply cannot understand quotes of 33/1 today. It is interesting Wayne Hutchinson rides this with Paddy Brennan on Walkon who is half the price - surely Hutchinson would have had the choice? Hard to know but I think the price is thirteen points too big anyway, I make him a 20/1 shot tops.

Theatre Guide represents the Tizzards, whose handicappers have been running well. He is arguably well treated but fell last time out at the last and his ability to jump around here needs to be taken on trust. If he does, I can definitely see him taking a hand in the finish because the race looks tailor made for him. He is another King's Theatre who will love the ground, and if he gets into a good rhythm he can cause a minor upset.

4:40 Cheltenham - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Non account bet: No Secrets each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Not a race I usually get involved with for betting purposes. No Secrets is the choice for those who wish to get involved, the booking of Katie Walsh takes the eye, the horses has won last twice, is (yet another) by King's Theatre whose progeny do so well here, and he looks well handicapped.

5:15 Cheltenham - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 3m7f

Non account bet: Arabella Boy to win @ 9/2 (Generally, guaranteed)

Not a race I have a huge interest in this year. Arabella Boy is young enough for this kind of test, but Enda Bolger has farmed this race for years and I see no reason why this horse can't be his next winner. He is the most likely winner of the race for me, the prices reflect that so I won't have a bet, but if you're one of those who isn't at the bar during this contest, I couldn't put you off a win bet.

Profit & loss: day: +36.65 / month: +21.40 / year: +44.31

Wednesday 13th March 2013

Neither the best nor the worst day we've had yesterday, but place money in the Champion Hurdle was the best we managed, of the non account bets Simonsig won as expected and Shangani stayed on for each-way money.

1.30 Cheltenham John Oaksey National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase ) Cl2 4m

Non account bet: Godsmejudge each-way @ 15/2 (Generally guaranteed) E/W 3rd

Not a race I tend to have an interest in and this year is no different. However, Alan King's Godsmejudge has impressed as a dour stayer this winter, and he has the services of the excellent Nico De Boinville in the plate this afternoon. I don't fancy Back In Focus and would happily oppose him, the selection comes here off the back of an impressive win at Warwick and is worth an each-way punt for those of you at Cheltenham and looking to get involved.

2:05 Cheltenham Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered Baring Bingham Novices´ Cl1 2m5f

Non account bet: Pont Alexandre to win @ 11/8

The most likely winner in my view, but that is reflected by the price and since there is no edge on the price, I won't be recommending an account bet. I was so impressed with the selection's win over the decent Sizing Gold last time, and I think he is destined for the top. He seems to have a fantastic temperament, and with his pilot riding this hurdles course two notches better than everyone else, I am loathe to take him on. Look out for a decent run from Rule The World.

2:40 Cheltenham RSA Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y

Already advised ante post: 

Lord Windermere 3pts win @ 20/1 ( geoff-banks.com - Non Runner No Bet, 20/1 Generally available) - WON

Lyreen Legend 2pts win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Sporting Bet, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

We've played our ante post book well here, and with both the above still just about available at double figure prices, they look worthy of investment to these stakes for those of you not yet involved. The race has cut up, and to me Unioniste looks a favourite to take on - I can't have a five year old for this gruelling contest. Our pair have decent form with the second favourite Boston Bob, but both of them are street fighters who I expect to improve for the demands of this track and race. The bit of juice in the ground is in the favour of Lyreen Legend, but the ground is better than a lot of that which Lord Windermere has run on in Ireland and I expect him to improve for conditions too. All in all I feel we're in a good position here and we'll have no additional interests in the race.

3:20 Cheltenham Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m

Non account bet: Market w/o fav: Wishful Thinking each-way @ 7/1 (Totesport, Betfred, 6/1 generally) - E/W 2nd w/o Fav

Nobody needs me to tell them Sprinter Sacre is the most likely winner here by far. If you can get £20 on at Corals at their special price of Evens, go for it, apart from that I think Wishful Thinking can give Sizing Europe a run for his money for second. He has been a much better horse this season, will enjoy the ground, and will be ridden to achieve the best possible placing. Expect him to stay on late in the day when others have cried enough having tried to keep in touch with Henderson's superstar. For win purposes, this is a no contest barring accidents.

4:00 Cheltenham Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f

Un Beau Matin 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 16/1 generally - get 5 places e/w guaranteed)

Rattan 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed, 40/1 Sporting Bet)

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Anybody's race here but I have an instinct that the Irish form is better and Gordon Elliot's Un Beau Matin is selected as a potential handicap blot. He isn't the most impressive looking beast but he has some very strong form if you look through his recent hurdles runs and although these are different conditions to the small fields he runs in in Ireland, I expect him to improve for this kind of test. He could be around 10lb well in and is probably still improving, it is highly likely he has been trained for this race for a while, and I think he is overpriced.

Rattan was noted staying on very well 2 3/4 lengths behind Cash And Go over 17 furlongs here before Christmas. He really seemed to revel in coming up the hill and although he has disappointed at Ascot since and was brought down at Leopardstown, that is factored into his price which looks very big given he is 4lb better of with Cash And Go and may well improve for the step up in trip. Danny Mullins rides and I know it's verging on the realms of cliche, but Willie wouldn't send this over for this competitive race if he didn't think the horse was working well enough and fairly enough handicapped to take a hand in the finish.

4:40 Cheltenham Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cl1 2m110y

Ibsen 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

This looks an absolutely wide open affair and 15/2 the field tells you everything you need to know. Ibsen has a nice way of going and has struck me as the type who could improve for this kind of test. He creeps in at the bottom of the weights and David Splain claims an additional 5lb off him, having ridden him in all three hurdles starts. The ground should be find and he has form on undulating tracks. He has hinted that he might reach greater heights over hurdles than on the flat and at the prices I'd like to have him on our side.

5:15 Cheltenham Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y

Milo Man 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed - get 4 places each-way)

Racing Post Ratings generally play a big part in the Champion Bumper with horses who have achieved his RPR's tending to fare best. Milo Man comes out second best on these ratings, but it is the visual impression he created at Taunton that impressed me most and I feel he is well worth backing at 16/1+ in this race, even given the race's nature and the amount of unexposed horses involved. The selection just seems to have that something special about him, he travelled really strongly at Taunton and quickened impressively without coming under pressure when asked. He is a physically superb specimen, and is bred by a sire whose progeny are really making an impression - horses like Darlan, Raya Star and Jezki being his best progeny yet. This horse seems to have gears and scope just like those, and if this test doesn't come too soon for him, I think he has every chance of a place at the very least. Even if he doesn't win today, I think there is a big future ahead of him. The ground will suit well.

Profit & loss: day: +44.00 / month: -15.25 / year: +7.66

Tuesday 12th March 2013

A fabulous day's racing, with the obvious caveat being that the ground at Cheltenham is not only softer than usual, but likely to ride tacky and dead. Spotting horses who go on soft ground is an art in itself, being sure about those who go on soft ground that is tacky and dead is harder again. Saying that, I think we've done ok with our selections and, setting our ante post selections aside, we've laid out 13pts.

1.30 Cheltenham - 2m 0f 110yrds Class 1 William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo plus)

Already Advised: Un atout 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally - advised ante post January 2013)

Puffin Billy 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed price)

I'm happy to oppose My Tent Or Yours here, who had a fairly easy time of it in the Betfair Hurdle against a lot of horses who probably weren't tuned up. That won't be the case today, the best novices in Britain and Ireland oppose him, and at the prices he has to be taken on. His high knee action might hamper him coming up the hill, and his jumping hasn't always been foot perfect.

Un Atout was an ante post selection of ours, as far as I know his preparation has gone smoothly and the recent rain will be in his favour. He is a really nice horse and his sire Robin Des Champs gets plenty of winners at Cheltenham. I think the 7/1 / 15/2 in a place (Stan James) actually represents decent value and I wouldn't discourage anyone from getting involved if they're not on already.

Puffin Billy is added at 14/1 guaranteed. He is a smashing horse, and appeals as a horse who is ready to show his best rather than being a long term project or a chaser in the making. Oliver Sherwood said the horse galloped really well last week, his preparation has been excellent since Exeter and the ground will hold no fears. It seems he had a very valid excuse (pus in his foot) that day and at the prices he rates decent value.

2.05 Cheltenham - 2m 0f Class 1 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1) (5yo plus)

No account bets advised - ante post selection Captain Conan non-runner - refund effected

Non account selection: Simonsig to win @ 4/6 (Generally, guaranteed) - WON

This looks a two horse race this year to me, and I don't see a shock happening. Simonsig was extremely impressive on both starts despite the fact that he beat nothing, and he has so much speed that he should get into an easy rhythm behind Overturn and pick him off coming up the hill. He is odds on at 4/6, and I won't bet him myself at that price, but he is the most likely winner and for those of you enjoying the day out at Cheltenham or in your local bookies, I couldn't put you off a small win bet.

2.40 Cheltenham - 3m 0f 110yrds Class 1 JLT Specialty Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (5yo plus)

Monkerty Tunkerty 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Loch Ba 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Both these horses won last time out, which is important in general when picking festival winners, and both look progressive. In addition, they should both go on the ground: Loch Ba beat Monkerty Tunkerty at Doncaster in January, with both horses running well, on ground described as tacky, with covers having come off on the morning of racing, very similar circumstances to today. That is not the only reason behind the choice - both horses are reasonable trends picks and look progressive. Indeed I think the formlines that they both carry into the race may be underestimated, they are a little less fashionable than the likes of Our Mick and Merry King, and both really do appeal at the prices.

3.20 Cheltenham - 2m 0f 110yrds Class 1 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (4yo plus)

Countrywide Flame 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Balder Succes 0.5pts each-way @ 100/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

This really is a fascinating renewal, but probably for the wrong reasons. We have a nine year old former champion heading the market, a horse who has had a poor preparation as short as 15/2 (Grandouet), another former champion as low as 7/1 (Binocular), and a horse who won't get his favoured ground as low as 10/1 (Cinders And Ashes). Throw in an eleven year old who I backed ante post for this race at 200/1 on Betfair in early 2008 when he was a novice, (ran badly in the Supreme, later ran second behind Binocular) trading at 33/1, and you form the impression that this is not a vintage renewal. Saying that, I think there are betting opportunities here.

Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby are the solid horses, but there is no value at the prices and I'm inclined to side with Countrywide Flameon an each-way basis. I think his performance in the Fighting Fifth was one of the best hurdling performances of the season, he thrashed Cinders And Ashes on tacky ground and he'll get similar going conditions tomorrow. He stays well on the flat and has had a good preparation. He has ground to make up with Rock On Ruby on Doncaster form, but I think he is a typical spring horse who loves the Cheltenham hill and he is too big at 16/1. The last time this race was run on tacky ground, it was won by a five year old Katchit.

I don't normally "do" half points, but Balder Succes has to be backed to absolute minimum stakes at 100/1. He is a horse who revels on soft ground, and needs a small field because he gets nervous around other horses. It is almost miraculous that he has got his ideal conditions in a Champion Hurdle and I have seen stranger things happen than this. He has the services of the excellent Wayne Hutchinson (who will surely get the King job soon?) and I have to admit I fancied him to go well in this way back when he demolished Hollow Tree earlier this season. The trainer's horses haven't been in great form, but the selection seems to have had a good prep and I don't think he is out of this, because a lot has gone his way already.

4.00 Cheltenham - 3m 7f Class 2 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country) (5yo plus)

Non account selection: Arabella Boy to win @ 9/2 (Coral, guaranteed)

Not a race I have a huge interest in this year. Arabella Boy is young enough for this kind of test, but Enda Bolger has farmed this race for years and I see no reason why this horse can't be his next winner. He is the most likely winner of the race for me, the prices reflect that so I won't have a bet, but if you're one of those who isn't at the bar during this contest, I couldn't put you off a win bet.

4.40 Cheltenham - 2m 4f Class 1 OLBG Mares Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) (Grade 2) (4yo plus)

Already Advised: Une Artiste 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, advised ante post February 2013)

This is one of my bets of the week, and if you're on at 8/1 you're sitting pretty. This is a mare who has been progressive all season, has had a perfect preparation, and is trained by the champion trainer Nicky Henderson. It is noteworthy that Quevega's RPR of 140 when winning this race last season wasn't up to her usual standard and visually I didn't find her that impressive. Une Artiste has already topped that RPR and she remains progressive. With luck in running, I expect Une Artiste to run into a place at least, and I think she should be much more closely matched with Quevega on the win market. I really fancy her and if you're not on already, take 11/2 to the above stakes, available with a few different firms on a guaranteed price basis.

5.15 Cheltenham - 2m 4f 110yrds Class 1 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase (Listed) (5yo plus)

Shangani each-way @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th

Not a race I have a big interest in, but Venetia William's Shangani has ticks in all the right boxes. I expect her to have at least one festival winner and this might be it. 8/1 appeals as a very fair price, he still looks well handicapped and remains progressive.

Profit & loss: day: -17.00 / month: -59.25 / year: -36.34

Saturday 9th March 2013

A busy afternoon for us.

2.05 Sandown De Blacksmith 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Generally, get guaranteed), AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

An interesting renewal but there are holes to be picked in a lot of the form on offer and I just thought it might be worth taking a flyer on De Blacksmith at a massive price. Gary Moore has always had the intention of sending him here and, if his last run is ignored, he is no 50/1 chance. He is a horse who is still developing, he travels and stays well and has a really game attitude. I expect to see him run better than his price suggests he should, and I'm happy to support him in this field.

2.55 Wolverhampton Alfred Hutchinson 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, William Hill, guaranteed)

Stable are in fine form and the selection might have this run to suit him. He tends to stalk the leaders and there's a it of pace on here which will suit. I think there is still room for progression off his current handicap mark, and for a horse who looks really progressive on the surface, a double figure price looks too big.

3.15 Sandown Arnaud 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Interests me that this horse is better handicapped in the U.K. than in Ireland, and that Charles Byrnes takes the trouble to send him over. Davy Russell turns up for the ride and OR135 probably underestimates him. His form with Blackstairmountain in January looks very solid and was a career best. He ran much better than his finishing position suggests last time out behind Zaidpour, and connections have since blamed that on the ground. A fifth behind Une Artiste at Cheltenham last season strongly suggests better ground will be in his favour and a County Hurdle entry suggests there might be a Charles Byrnes grand plan in action here. 16/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -42.25 / year: -19.34

Friday 8th March 2013

It hasn't exactly been a lucky start to the month for us, both our selections traded odds on yesterday and Backhomeinderry in particular went very close to winning.

Just one selection for this afternoon on a difficult day to find value.

2.40 Ayr Heart O' The West 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

A fairly moderate handicap hurdle with some unusual prices floating around. Alistair Whillans has his string in good form, and his nine year old Heart O' The West looks like a decent price to try and confirm the promise of his January run here over two and a half miles. The selection looks well handicapped on two pieces of good ground form earlier in his career at Perth and Musselburgh, but has struggled since and was off for the guts of two years before making his debut for this trainer in November last year. It is interesting he was sent off just 3/1 for a Novices handicap hurdle at Carlisle that day, but he disappointed on heavy ground. Despite heavy ground, he stayed on well over two and a half in the January Ayr race, and it was no surprise he pulled up at Kelso ten days later, conditions at Ayr had been nothing short of attritional. If the stretch out in trip brings about any sort of improvement, he should figure in this company and with the stable's horses running really well (bumper winner the other day, would have had a winner at Carlisle yesterday but for a last fence blunder), he makes plenty of appeal at the prices on an otherwise unappealing afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -32.25 / year: -9.34

Thursday 7th March 2013

Two selections for Thursday.

2.00 Wincanton Backhomeinderry 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Represents a small trainer who has a couple of course winners to her name. This is a shocking race, and with the Pipe handicap debutant attracting no money at all it might pay to take a chance on the selection. He is a potential improver on better ground, and having shown some ability in a much better race at Fontwell last backend, he followed up with a decent performance at Warwick on unsuitable ground last time out. He made a mistake at a crucial point there, but battled on to make headway before weakening on a surface which does not suit. He now has a handicap mark of OR95 and runs in a much weaker event here. The caveat is his breathing, he is out of Oscar whose progeny are known for occasional breathing difficulties and a tongue tie and his record of weakening tells you all you need to know. However, his last two starts have offered definite signs of life and, in the worst race he has contested yet, he makes appeal at double figures. Top weight should be no problem, he is a nice size of a horse who should carry it well (carried 12 stone for his point win).

3.25 Southwell Naughtybychoice 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

By a sire whose progeny excel at this track. The selection was sent off favourite over course and distance last time out, and things appeared to be going smoothly until he seemed to look around himself and hang in the final couple of furlongs. Whether there was a physical problem, or if he was merely displaying attitude is hard to tell, but connections have wasted no time applying sheepskin cheekpieces to sharpen his focus. In addition, a good 7lb claimer who rides the track well is given has been booked. I think he can win off this handicap mark, and given that this race does not look too hot, he is selected at a fair price.

Profit & loss: day: -4.25 / month: -28.25 / year: -5.34

Wednesday 6th March 2013

Most of our focus from here on in will be on Cheltenham, I'm really happy with the shape of our ante post book with only 1pt ditched thus far (Village Vic). We still have more ante post bets to come before the festival itself.

Two interests for this evening.

6.00 Kempton Early One Morning 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Hugo Palmer is deservedly gaining a reputation for being a good trainer of fillies, and this 28,000 Guineas purchase made a promising debut three weeks ago despite her finishing position. The selection was very green, slow from the stalls and probably interfered with a little when in the rear, before making headway around the outside travelling well. She faded fairly quickly in the straight, but she may not have been wound up and the experience probably got to her. Her jockey handled her tenderly in the closing stages. It is interesting, then, that the cheap headway horse who ran on from the rear for second, Oratorio's Joy, is priced up 4/1 here when he was twice the price of the selection last time. I can't see why there is such a price discrepancy, the selection is quite well bred and could potentially improve a bundle for three weeks on her back, especially at this time of year. She is taken to cause an upset.

7.30 Kempton Colourbearer 4pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 15/2 Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed)

Drawn widest of all but has been overlooked on the basis that his improved form last time out came on fibresand. It is far and away the best recent form on show here, though, and the selection is arguably performs as well on polytrack. The booking of an excellent, underrated jockey catches the eye and 8/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -24.00 / year: -1.09

Tuesday 5th March 2013

One interest for this afternoon.

2.10 Southwell Tenancy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Tenancy is one of those horses who never gives any clue of when he is about to pop up and win, as wins at 66/1 and 33/1 on his record will attest to. With the track beginning to ride quicker, he is selected against a very average bunch from a good draw under his ideal conditions. His trainer has done well at the track lately, and the selection won this race last year at another big S.P. of 20/1. Duran Fentiman rides and tactics will be simple - bounce out and try to make all. As a nine year old he isn't getting any younger of better, but this does look a bad race and it is the sort of opportunity he relishes.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -17.00 / year: +5.91

Monday 4th March 2013

Really unlucky on Saturday with Mr Moss trading 1.09 in running but dogging it at the finish! I think the noseband was a bad idea and he should win soon without it.

Just one for Monday.

3.50 Kempton 

Back Beauty Pageant, Homeward Strut, Absent Amy, Midnight Feast, Crowning Star, Mujaadel, Paradise Spectre, Tidals Baby, Spanish Plume -

Stakes split equally at Betfair SP for a total of 6pts

We haven't used our Betfair SP method in a while, but today looks an ideal opportunity with this race. A lot of the form looks questionable and I fancy there might be a big priced winner. There is plenty of potential pace on but it is mostly drawn wide, and there are hold up horses on the inner which could lead to a messy race, particularly over this course and distance. I'm keen to take on the top three in the market and back the other nine, if any of the shorter ones win it should cover our outlay, a big priced winner would return a nice profit. a 6pt stake allows us to have two thirds of a point on each selection.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -13.00 / year: +9.91

Saturday 2nd March 2013

Some quality racing today and two interests for us.

2.55 Doncaster Mr Moss 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

A really decent handicap chase. Mr Moss has course form from this card last season, when Beneficial Reform got the better of him following a protracted duel to the line in a Novice Chase. That rival reopposes on better terms, but Mr Moss has gone on well this season and seems to be developing into a decent stayer, as a result he gets the nod. His defeat of Emmaslegend last April is working out well, and a recent third to Wyck Hill on ground that would have been soft enough for him would suggest he is improving and probably well handicapped off a mark of OR132. In addition, there seems to be a bit of potential pace in this race and Paul Moloney's mount may have the race set up for him: he strikes me as a horse who travels really well, stays, but doesn't find a whole lot in front so a big field like this could be the making of him. 12/1+ is too big.

4.00 Lingfield Takeitfromalady 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Plenty of pace on here too with Loyalty, Aquilonious and Dr. Redeye all likely to set decent fractions. That might set it up for Takeitfromalady, who has his third run on polytrack this afternoon having impressed with a fourth in a strong looking Kempton handicap back in October. He has since transferred to Lee Carter, who seems to be able to get horses ready and has had some success with ekeing out improvement and wins from similar types. The booking of the excellent Graham Lee is interesting, and the price looks very fair.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: -7.00 / year: +15.91