Friday 15th March 2013

You don't need many 20/1 winners to have a good Cheltenham, and although we had to make do with place money from Smad Place thereafter, Benefficient's victory in the Jewson yesterday put us well ahead for the day. It is particularly satisfying to grab an extra 5 or 6 points profit by using Betfair SP for part of our bet. Race times would suggest Bryan Cooper gave him a tremendous waiting ride from the front but I think he was much the best horse on the day and had plenty left in the tank.

There is rain moving in on Cheltenham. It is hard to know how much, satellite pictures suggest it is an hour away yet but it seems likely there'll be some sort of downfall. That would worry me slightly for Shadow Catcher, who I think will be best on faster ground, but at this stage it would take a major downpour to have a big effect on the ground by 2.00pm.

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m1f

Stockton's Wing 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

A fascinating renewal and all the talk from the Irish camp is of how Our Conor is going to win by five lengths. He might well do, but Charles O' Brien has a very good line on the form given that his Stockton's Wing was two and a half lengths behind Our Conor before Christmas. Why bother showing up for the gig if he is booked for second best? Well, there are reasons to suggest the selection can reverse the form. Firstly, a strong pace and big field look tailor made for the selection, who looks a really hardy type and a proper battler. He is in fact by Jeremy, Our Conor's sire, and the look quite alike. Secondly, the booking of Tony McCoy. The pair look like a match made in heaven to me and I expect McCoy will get a real tune out of him. Only Charles O'Brien will know how far his horse has come physically and mentally since he was behind Our Conor, but he did give that rival two to three lengths head start and Our Conor was able to pull away only after the selection got upsides. I don't think there is that much between them, one is 3/1 and the other is 20/1 - choice made. Of course, the English horses have a much better record in this race and although Irish novices have cleaned up this week, there is a fair chance this goes to Rolling Star or Far West. Saying that, Our Conor's form looks strong and we're getting 5/1 on our horse running a place which looks very good value.

2:05 Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cl1 2m1f

Shadow Catcher 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @25/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed - get 5 places paid)

Princeton Plains 1pt each way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed - get 5 places paid)

Having had a good look at the field I really did think that, outside of a top performance from Cotton Mill, this might go to an Irish horse. The Boylesports Hurdle in January and Paddy Power Hurdle in February at Leopardstown are the places to look for potential winners of this, but what I did notice is that many of those who have come out of the Boylesports have disappointed since. It was run on an absolute quagmire and to my mind has to have taken plenty out of anything that ran well in it. Enter Gordon Elliot, who is a very shrewd trainer, particularly when plotting up a horse for a handicap. I attended a Maynooth preview evening in 2012 where he lambasted Andrew Lynch (who was also on the panel and took it in good humour) for winning 16 lengths over Chicago Grey in his Cheltenham prep, on soft ground - something which Elliot suggested would bottom the horse (and I agreed with). Elliot's sentiments proved true in my view, and the horse disappointed at Cheltenham. Knowing that Gordon is astute when it comes to these things, it was interesting watching his Shadow Catcher (10/1 when disappointing in the Triumph last year) getting an easy time of it out the back in the Boylesports, simply experiencing the big field and getting some fitness into him. The word is Shadow Catcher worked well with Wednesday's winner Flaxen Flare, and like his stablemate he gets first time headgear (cheekpieces) and the assistance of Davy Condon in the plate.

Princeton Plains is a horse with plenty of form on undulating tracks who seems to have been plotted up for this, much like Alderwood was last year for the same connections (we were on at 33/1). He has been well backed overnight and it is no wonder, he was never really put in the race last time in the Betfair Hurdle and he looked on good terms with himself, and physically impressive with it. This horse ran a cracker in the Galway Hurdle as a novice, having met trouble in running with the race not really panning out for him at all, and it appears he has been prepared with a spring festival campaign in mind. 16/1 is too big today and the services of Tony McCoy are a bonus.

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1 Cl1 3m

Non account bet: African Gold each-way @ 6/1 (Generally, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Not a race we'll bet in. Nigel Twiston-Davies horses have been in excellent form this week, and his African Gold is well fancied by connections. He has a good attitude and his form has a particularly solid look to it. He will relish this test, and he is another King's Theatre. Ironically Cue Card, one of the only King's Theatres we didn't back yesterday, went on to win the Ryanair impressively.

3:20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 Cl1 3m2f110y

Captain Chris 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

...Which leads us nicely on to another King's Theatre. Arkle runners of two years previous have a good recent record in this contest - Kicking King was second two years before his Gold Cup, War Of Attrition was seventh before winning this two years later. Captain Chris won the Arkle before losing his way a bit, but he seems to have come back a much better horse this season and his last two runs have probably been lifetime bests. They have all been right handed, but the horse has performed admirably at the last two festivals and I think he is an out and out stayer now. He almost won the King George, and followed that up by going close to beating Cue Card, who has just won the Ryanair Chase by nine lengths posting an RPR 174, by nine lengths. This horse's form is stacking up extremely well, and I think Good or Good to Soft ground and today's trip are perfect for him. He has hit that crucial RPR170 the last twice, and with a bit of luck on his side this afternoon I think he can go close. Bob's Worth is the best horse in the race in my view, but some of Henderson's other horses who have had interrupted preps have run below par (Simonsig, despite winning, Grandouet) and the stable haven't had as dominant a festival as last season on the whole. If Captain Chris's jumping holds up going left handed (didn't bother him in the Arkle), and the rain doesn't turn this into a complete stamina test, then I think he has a fine chance.

4:00 CGA Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup Cl2 3m2f110y

Non account bet: Cottage Oak each-way @ 10/1 (Vc Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents) - E/W 3rd

Not a race I generally have any interest in. Henry, who helps out with some of the Irish and pointing form as many of you will know, has mentioned that he fancies this horse to quite strongly and he has a good record in the race over the years. On that basis, I certainly couldn't discourage those of you who want to have an interest to back him each-way.

4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y

Non account bet: Village Vic each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Again, not a race I'm interested in from a betting point of view. Village Vic was well regarded by the Hobbs stable but things didn't go to plan during the year. He has decent form with The New One, though, and seems adaptable with regard to ground. The booking of a top conditional is the icing on the cake and, if we weren't so busy will bets elsewhere, this would be next on the list. He looks worth backing each-way.

5:15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap)

Petit Robin 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Tatenen 1pt win @ Betfair SP AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP (Currently available at 50/1 generally guaranteed for those without Betfair)

It would be nice to go out on a high here! Petit Robin seems rejuvenated this year, and his back form over fences with the likes of Master Minded and Well Chief sticks out like a sore thumb in this company. His performances in winning two handicap hurdles this season before finishing second in the Ladbroke have been top drawer, he then posted an RPR of 160 behind My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle. There is no reason to doubt his ability over fences, and with him having posted an RPR of 167 behind Master Minded in the rerouted Tingle Creek as recently as December 2010, he makes plenty of appeal off a mark of OR155 today - with the pilot he has struck up such a good rapport with claiming a further 7lb off his back (which he is well worth). 16/1 looks a very fair price each-way, expect him to be well backed if the rain gets heavy.

Tatenen caught my eye in the December Gold Cup over 2m5f here. His jumping was pretty stunning, and I earmarked him for Ascot in January as usual, but the meeting was called off. The selection ultimately capitulated and was outclassed in December, but he steps right back in trip today and he has no shortage of pace. A drifting price on Betfair before his Ascot race in February may have suggested he was held up over the winter by weather or what not, but stable and jockey picked up fifth placed prize money with a no hoper in the Champion Chase earlier this week and that horse ran quite well considering. The handicapper has dropped Tatenen 5lb to a mark he can win off, and if he gets in a rhythm he could be hard to peg back. I can't see anyone backing him, because it's an our of the ballpark selection, so he is well worth a point win and place on Betfair at a potentially huge price.

Profit & loss: day: -12.75 / month: +8.65 / year: +31.46