Friday 8th March 2013

It hasn't exactly been a lucky start to the month for us, both our selections traded odds on yesterday and Backhomeinderry in particular went very close to winning.

Just one selection for this afternoon on a difficult day to find value.

2.40 Ayr Heart O' The West 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

A fairly moderate handicap hurdle with some unusual prices floating around. Alistair Whillans has his string in good form, and his nine year old Heart O' The West looks like a decent price to try and confirm the promise of his January run here over two and a half miles. The selection looks well handicapped on two pieces of good ground form earlier in his career at Perth and Musselburgh, but has struggled since and was off for the guts of two years before making his debut for this trainer in November last year. It is interesting he was sent off just 3/1 for a Novices handicap hurdle at Carlisle that day, but he disappointed on heavy ground. Despite heavy ground, he stayed on well over two and a half in the January Ayr race, and it was no surprise he pulled up at Kelso ten days later, conditions at Ayr had been nothing short of attritional. If the stretch out in trip brings about any sort of improvement, he should figure in this company and with the stable's horses running really well (bumper winner the other day, would have had a winner at Carlisle yesterday but for a last fence blunder), he makes plenty of appeal at the prices on an otherwise unappealing afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -32.25 / year: -9.34