I hope you all enjoyed Cheltenham, we finished in profit with two 20/1 winners, 16/1 and 25/1 and 12/1 placers, and good each-way return from a few non account bets. More on that when I tally up our scores. I would have likes one more winner, but you can't be choosy at Cheltenham and we certainly did better than most services out there - strike rate has never been our most important thing.
3.30 Lingfield - The Winter Derby - Ansgar 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (VC Bet, 20/1 generally guaranteed)
Comes over from Ireland from Sabrina Harty's yard. Ansgar is a front runner who has taken really well to the all weather and won last twice at Dundalk. He beat Akasaka last time out, in fact having that rival cooked from the home turn having set hard fractions. Akasaka has since won impressively off OR95. It would appear Ansgar has developed late, he is a big horse and may have taken time to fill his frame. He is now two from three on the surface and I think he can step up to Listed class. Given that connections have prepared him for this race, and sent Declan McDonagh over to ride him, I would suggest they feel he is up to it too.
What is really interesting is the lack of pace pressure in the race. Go through the ten year trends and you'll see no fewer than five of the last ten winners of this race have made all, the other five having raced prominently. The selection has come up trumps with a stall 2 draw, and if the trend is maintained and he is up to class, I can see a very bold showing. The speculation here is whether he is up to that class, but I certainly think he can progress and aside from Premio Loco, nothing else in the race looks rock solid. The price compensates us well for the speculation, and Ansgar will be our only bet for Saturday.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +3.65 / year: +26.46
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