Thursday 14th March 2013

Lord Windermere was a massive highlight yesterday, landing a 3pts win ante post bet which was advised at 20/1, showing how quickly profits can add up. I hope some of you traded out of your Lyreen Legend bets, or even had the reverse forecast, it was nice to see them coming up the hill clear and we called the race perfectly. For what it's worth, I think he'd have won even if Boston Bob has stood up (a mute point, it's called the R.S.A. Chase because fencing is one of the tests!).

Both non account bets returned a small profit, Godsmejudge sticking on for third and Wishful Thinking ridden to challenge for second as we said he would be - he also picked up place money in the advised "without the favourite" market.

We actually got lucky because at least three horses took bad steps on a false patch of ground around the bend at the top of the hill. Lord Windermere was one, which only adds merit to his victory. Sizing Europe was the second I noticed. Milo Milan was the third, and I think Paul Moloney eased him immediately costing us five points, but that is understandable when you have a really good one like that in your yard - Evan Williams won't want to have bottomed him in that race and mark my words although it is annoying today, it will pay off in the long term.

Another absolutely brilliant day's racing on Thursday, a jaw dropping card again.

1:30 Cheltenham - Jewson Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f

Benefficient 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed),

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - WON

By Beneficial out of a Supreme Leader mare - the breeding screams Cheltenham Festival and I expect the selection to improve on the faster ground. In five chase starts, he has only been out of the first two once, at Leaopardstown last Christmas when he ran below his rating on soft ground. His trainer describes him as a good moving horse who will be better on faster ground. What I find interesting is his form behind Harry Topper at Newbury last November, when connections took the trouble to book Tony McCoy. He had Harry Topper beaten but idled and lost concentration, that rival is probably an OR160 horse on his best form and having won since, the form has a solid look to it. That akes the addition of a first time hood really interesting today - it should serve to keep his concentration on the job at hand. This doesn't look the best renewal apart from Dynaste, and I'm happy to desert Captain Conan and Aupcharlie in favour of the selection who I feel might be the improver. Texas Jack's form has been franked but I'm not sure he will have this run to suit. Some of the other formlines (including Dynaste's) have taken knocks in recent days, but Benefficient has that interesting Newbury form to his name and I am inclined to side with him at the prices, particularly with a few of the trainers horses showing up well at this meeting.

2:05 Cheltenham - Pertemps Final (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m

Non account bet: Bouggler each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed, get 5 places each-way)

I usually have a bet in this, some of you will remember we backed Oscar Park to win this back in 2007 (20/1), but we have enough selections on the account today and this would be a more speculative choice. The selection has some back form including the odd promising run at this track, and I expect him to outrun his price. Saying that, this looks very competitive and is probably anyone's race.

2:40 Cheltenham - Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f

Menorah 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Boylesports, Coral, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed)

A really good renewal. Outside of First Lieutenant, I think Cue Card will want for stamina, Riverside Theatre hasn't been right since last year, and Champion Court was beaten in his prep when he should have won. Menorah is a horse I have always liked, and I think Philip Hobbs horses have been in much better form this season. His defeat of Hunt Ball at Christmas was smart form, and he is another by King's Theatre who will improve for spring ground. In addition, the presence of Cue Card and Champion Court might mean this is run to suit, and I think Johnson will pop him around similar to the way he did with Wishful Thinking yesterday, picking the leaders off one by one. I think a good round of jumping should ensure a place at least, and with the dead eight running he looks very good each-way value against a strong favourite.

3:20 Cheltenham - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m

Already advised ante post:

Get Me Out Of Here 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (William Hill, Non Runner No Bet, 12/1 Boylesports, brucebetting.com, Blue Square, 888 Sport, all NRNB)

Also: Smad Place 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, VC Bet, Coral, independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Not a vintage renewal. We have Get Me Out Of Here ante post and we're on at the right prices. Those who aren't on should still get on at 9/1 with a bit of shopping around. The selection has stamina to prove, but he is an out and out Cheltenham horse who turns up here every year and runs well. He is a nine year old but is very lightly raced, and if this trip ekes out some improvement, he can take a hand in the finish.

Smad Place represents the very recently resurgent Alan King, and the form of his third behind Big Bucks in this race last year looks strong. His defeat by Reve De Sivola can be put down to the ground conditions, and he is another horse who will only improve for better ground this afternoon. At double figure odds last night, he was far too big a price. He had been overlooked until attracting support yesterday off the back of the King Coral Cup 1-2, and the 9/1 and 10/1 available now are still too big in my view. King has kept him fresh deliberately, instead of running him through the winter on bad ground - there have been no hold ups in his preparation that I know of.

4:00 Cheltenham - Byrne Group Plate (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f

Bless The Wings 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Theatre Guide 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A really interesting handicap, but I'm keen to take on the top of the market. Bless The Wings is another from Alan King's stable. This course and distance winner won twice during the winter and looked very progressive and game, bit disappointed behind Katenko on a bog last time out. I am happy to forgive him that run based on the ground and I simply cannot understand quotes of 33/1 today. It is interesting Wayne Hutchinson rides this with Paddy Brennan on Walkon who is half the price - surely Hutchinson would have had the choice? Hard to know but I think the price is thirteen points too big anyway, I make him a 20/1 shot tops.

Theatre Guide represents the Tizzards, whose handicappers have been running well. He is arguably well treated but fell last time out at the last and his ability to jump around here needs to be taken on trust. If he does, I can definitely see him taking a hand in the finish because the race looks tailor made for him. He is another King's Theatre who will love the ground, and if he gets into a good rhythm he can cause a minor upset.

4:40 Cheltenham - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Non account bet: No Secrets each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Not a race I usually get involved with for betting purposes. No Secrets is the choice for those who wish to get involved, the booking of Katie Walsh takes the eye, the horses has won last twice, is (yet another) by King's Theatre whose progeny do so well here, and he looks well handicapped.

5:15 Cheltenham - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 3m7f

Non account bet: Arabella Boy to win @ 9/2 (Generally, guaranteed)

Not a race I have a huge interest in this year. Arabella Boy is young enough for this kind of test, but Enda Bolger has farmed this race for years and I see no reason why this horse can't be his next winner. He is the most likely winner of the race for me, the prices reflect that so I won't have a bet, but if you're one of those who isn't at the bar during this contest, I couldn't put you off a win bet.

Profit & loss: day: +36.65 / month: +21.40 / year: +44.31