1.30 Cheltenham - 2m 0f 110yrds Class 1 William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo plus)
Already Advised: Un atout 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally - advised ante post January 2013)
Puffin Billy 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed price)
I'm happy to oppose My Tent Or Yours here, who had a fairly easy time of it in the Betfair Hurdle against a lot of horses who probably weren't tuned up. That won't be the case today, the best novices in Britain and Ireland oppose him, and at the prices he has to be taken on. His high knee action might hamper him coming up the hill, and his jumping hasn't always been foot perfect.
Un Atout was an ante post selection of ours, as far as I know his preparation has gone smoothly and the recent rain will be in his favour. He is a really nice horse and his sire Robin Des Champs gets plenty of winners at Cheltenham. I think the 7/1 / 15/2 in a place (Stan James) actually represents decent value and I wouldn't discourage anyone from getting involved if they're not on already.
Puffin Billy is added at 14/1 guaranteed. He is a smashing horse, and appeals as a horse who is ready to show his best rather than being a long term project or a chaser in the making. Oliver Sherwood said the horse galloped really well last week, his preparation has been excellent since Exeter and the ground will hold no fears. It seems he had a very valid excuse (pus in his foot) that day and at the prices he rates decent value.
2.05 Cheltenham - 2m 0f Class 1 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1) (5yo plus)
No account bets advised - ante post selection Captain Conan non-runner - refund effected
Non account selection: Simonsig to win @ 4/6 (Generally, guaranteed) - WON
This looks a two horse race this year to me, and I don't see a shock happening. Simonsig was extremely impressive on both starts despite the fact that he beat nothing, and he has so much speed that he should get into an easy rhythm behind Overturn and pick him off coming up the hill. He is odds on at 4/6, and I won't bet him myself at that price, but he is the most likely winner and for those of you enjoying the day out at Cheltenham or in your local bookies, I couldn't put you off a small win bet.
2.40 Cheltenham - 3m 0f 110yrds Class 1 JLT Specialty Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (5yo plus)
Monkerty Tunkerty 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Loch Ba 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Both these horses won last time out, which is important in general when picking festival winners, and both look progressive. In addition, they should both go on the ground: Loch Ba beat Monkerty Tunkerty at Doncaster in January, with both horses running well, on ground described as tacky, with covers having come off on the morning of racing, very similar circumstances to today. That is not the only reason behind the choice - both horses are reasonable trends picks and look progressive. Indeed I think the formlines that they both carry into the race may be underestimated, they are a little less fashionable than the likes of Our Mick and Merry King, and both really do appeal at the prices.
3.20 Cheltenham - 2m 0f 110yrds Class 1 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (4yo plus)
Countrywide Flame 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Balder Succes 0.5pts each-way @ 100/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
This really is a fascinating renewal, but probably for the wrong reasons. We have a nine year old former champion heading the market, a horse who has had a poor preparation as short as 15/2 (Grandouet), another former champion as low as 7/1 (Binocular), and a horse who won't get his favoured ground as low as 10/1 (Cinders And Ashes). Throw in an eleven year old who I backed ante post for this race at 200/1 on Betfair in early 2008 when he was a novice, (ran badly in the Supreme, later ran second behind Binocular) trading at 33/1, and you form the impression that this is not a vintage renewal. Saying that, I think there are betting opportunities here.
Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby are the solid horses, but there is no value at the prices and I'm inclined to side with Countrywide Flameon an each-way basis. I think his performance in the Fighting Fifth was one of the best hurdling performances of the season, he thrashed Cinders And Ashes on tacky ground and he'll get similar going conditions tomorrow. He stays well on the flat and has had a good preparation. He has ground to make up with Rock On Ruby on Doncaster form, but I think he is a typical spring horse who loves the Cheltenham hill and he is too big at 16/1. The last time this race was run on tacky ground, it was won by a five year old Katchit.
I don't normally "do" half points, but Balder Succes has to be backed to absolute minimum stakes at 100/1. He is a horse who revels on soft ground, and needs a small field because he gets nervous around other horses. It is almost miraculous that he has got his ideal conditions in a Champion Hurdle and I have seen stranger things happen than this. He has the services of the excellent Wayne Hutchinson (who will surely get the King job soon?) and I have to admit I fancied him to go well in this way back when he demolished Hollow Tree earlier this season. The trainer's horses haven't been in great form, but the selection seems to have had a good prep and I don't think he is out of this, because a lot has gone his way already.
4.00 Cheltenham - 3m 7f Class 2 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country) (5yo plus)
Non account selection: Arabella Boy to win @ 9/2 (Coral, guaranteed)
Not a race I have a huge interest in this year. Arabella Boy is young enough for this kind of test, but Enda Bolger has farmed this race for years and I see no reason why this horse can't be his next winner. He is the most likely winner of the race for me, the prices reflect that so I won't have a bet, but if you're one of those who isn't at the bar during this contest, I couldn't put you off a win bet.
4.40 Cheltenham - 2m 4f Class 1 OLBG Mares Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) (Grade 2) (4yo plus)
Already Advised: Une Artiste 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, advised ante post February 2013)
This is one of my bets of the week, and if you're on at 8/1 you're sitting pretty. This is a mare who has been progressive all season, has had a perfect preparation, and is trained by the champion trainer Nicky Henderson. It is noteworthy that Quevega's RPR of 140 when winning this race last season wasn't up to her usual standard and visually I didn't find her that impressive. Une Artiste has already topped that RPR and she remains progressive. With luck in running, I expect Une Artiste to run into a place at least, and I think she should be much more closely matched with Quevega on the win market. I really fancy her and if you're not on already, take 11/2 to the above stakes, available with a few different firms on a guaranteed price basis.
5.15 Cheltenham - 2m 4f 110yrds Class 1 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase (Listed) (5yo plus)
Shangani each-way @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th
Not a race I have a big interest in, but Venetia William's Shangani has ticks in all the right boxes. I expect her to have at least one festival winner and this might be it. 8/1 appeals as a very fair price, he still looks well handicapped and remains progressive.
Profit & loss: day: -17.00 / month: -59.25 / year: -36.34
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