Friday 24th May 2013

Our main bet Buy Art was declared a non runner.

One bet for this evening - keep an eye out for possible price alerts tonight for tomorrow's racing.

8.45 Musselburgh Silkelly 5pts win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed) - WON

David O'Meara is a force to be reckoned with these days, and his Scottish sojourns have been a particularly good source of winners for the yard over the past couple of seasons. The maiden Silkelly won at Redcar wasn't much of a race, but she did it really well and looked thoroughly professional, her physicality suggesting she would be a horse who could improve over seven furlongs and a mile as a three year old in line with her breeding. She is sent north for this qualifier tonight, and with Danny Tudhope riding I am happy to take a relatively short price about her, because this looks a weak contest and I'm not convinced about the Johnston trained favourite, who has entries in some similarly average looking contests in the coming days. I think Silkelly could be a bit better than the opposition here, and her mark of OR69 looks fair. The stable have an 18% strike rate at the track with three year olds and upwards over the course of the last five seasons, and the absence is not a worry - the actual versus expected value of all their runners coming back from 100+ days off the track is 1.11, which means that not only can the trainer get them fit first time up, but they are also underbet according to market expectations and results. Anything 3/1 or better looks good value here and it's a bonus that 10/3 and 7/2 are generally available.

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Afternoon Bets:

Another profitable day yesterday and the last few weeks have been kind to us.

Again two races of interest for Friday afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details either way before 5.45pm.

2.35 Goodwood

Royal Reyah 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 with many independents, guaranteed)

Forceful Appeal 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

I think from satellite charts that you can forget your "good" ground this afternoon at Goodwood, and I expect the ground to be soft with it looking quite tacky and cutting up yesterday, followed by heavy rain this morning continuing into the afternoon.

Royal Reyah is an unexposed handicapper from a yard in form who won on his seasonal debut last time out and appears to enjoy rain softened ground. He won well at Warwick last time out beating Divine Call, a horse who likes that track and likes soft ground, quite easily. I think the performance has been somewhat underestimated by the handicapper - a 7lb rise might seem steep enough at first but that is still 9lb below the rating he ran to that day and there is clearly scope for progression. It is hard to know if he will handle Goodwood but he is drawn well and ran ok here at an October meeting last year on ground that may have been too quick for him. Double figures is too big.

At a bigger price again, Forceful Appeal makes some appeal. Bookmakers seem to have looked into the U.S.A. pedigree and his proficiency on the all weather and written his chances off somewhat, but he has a piece of form at Newmarket last year on soft ground that gives him a chance here. He made his challenge widest of all that day, was in front a furlong out, but faded into fifth behind some confirmed soft ground lovers, some of whom had an easier passage into the race on the near rail. He comes here on the back of an all weather win, and Tom Queally looks a good booking. He has stall 14 to overcome but he might be one to be held up for a late run when others have cried enough.

5.30 Goodwood Buy Art 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R

Ran a really nice race at Windsor last time out, finishing his race well despite looking a little ill at ease on the ground. I think he might handle these conditions, his sire gets soft ground winners and although he has won on faster, the Windsor race suggested he is well worth a try in a race like this. He has experience at Brighton, where he won last summer, and Bath, so this course's downhill run will hold no fears for him, and the booking of Ryan Moore is clearly a big positive. I don't think he'll be 4/1 come the off, and with 8 runners lining up this looks a bit of a thieving each-way bet, we'll stake it so we get most of our outlay back if he runs in the first three.

Profit & loss: day: +11.50 / month: +57.50 / year: +64.66

Thursday 23rd May 2013

Two races of interest this afternoon, there is a small chance of an evening bet, details either way before 5.00pm.

2.55 Haydock Reflect 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Lo and behold two non runners have destroyed favourable each-way terms but Reflect should still outrun his price here. The selection represents the Derek Shaw stable, who had a winner at Southwell yesterday following on from a 16/1 second at Newcastle the day before, following a relatively quiet period. The selection ran a really nice race at Thirsk last time out, running 5lb better than his handicap mark behind a complete handicap blot Roman Flight. He beat an in form Arizona John who franked the form by winning the other night, and Mr Snoozy, who finished sixth, has since won at Doncaster. The form looks strong and the run was all the more meritorious given that the selection didn't really travel early on and was held up detached in last place. A visor is added this afternoon and I would hope that will help him focus on the job and travel sweeter. If he does, he looks really well handicapped off a mark of OR77 based on his last run and indeed his two course and distance runs for Richard Hannon in 2011. that was a long time ago but a second behind Brown Panther and third behind Highland Castle off OR85 and OR89 respectively would suggest he acts well at this track and should be able to put his best foot forward. The opposition have nothing of that kind of form in their records and the booking of Tom Queally, who has a 14% strike rate at this track, looks a real positive.

4.05 Haydock 

Mont Ros 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, all guaranteed prices) - WON

Rosearrow 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

A really strong handicap, with many of these set to run at Royal Ascot next month and indeed requiring penalties to get in to some of the handicaps there. Basseterre is favourite here and is apparently a group horse, but he didn't show quite enough for me on his return to be interested in him at this kind of price and although the booking of Fallon is interesting given the former champion's fine recent form, the stable aren't setting the world on fire right now and he is overlooked. Volcanic Wind could be anything, but he might not be that much, and punters are only guessing at his true ability on turf if backing him, not something I want to do at 5/1. At a price Mont Ros is selected, with a six length course and distance handicap win in his back form, following an impressive win on his reappearance at Redcar. He is drawn well for a horse who likes to sit prominently and I have plenty of respect for Danny Tudhope. I'm willing to forgive his run at Thirsk and put it down to the bounce factor.

Rosearrow is unproven on turf, but he is a much bigger price at around 16/1 and bigger at the moment. He caught the eye travelling well on a strong pace on his reappearance at Lingfield, and did well to finish fourth given the pace he was chasing. He looked like he needed the run but he has been dropped to a mark of OR85 and looks very well handicapped. His trainer doesn't have the best course record but he did send Tartan Trip up to contest this race two years ago, he eventually finished second to Sam Sharp and the trainer clearly has a good line on what it takes to win the race. the negatives are factored into his price and I feel he is worth supporting given that he has some strong three year old form to his name.

Profit & loss: day: +25.50 / month: +46.00 / year: +53.16

Wednesday 22nd May 2013

Two selections for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to follow before 5.00pm.

3.20 Southwell Glan Lady 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Paddy power, guaranteed, 14/1 VCBet, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Supporting a OR40 rated 7yo mare who hasn't won on the flat since 2008 might seem like punting suicide, but this trainer Michael Appleby forces you to tear up the rulebook time and again, his record with switchers is phenomenal and it doesn't matter how cheaply they were bought or what price they are. The selection has already had two starts for Appleby, last October. Both were on heavy ground at Yarmouth, she showed little the first time but travelled like a dream on the second occasion before fading right out of contention on ground she has never enjoyed. It is interesting she was then put away, and you would have to imaging connections will have freshened here up and worked whatever magic they tend to work in the mean time. Her sole flat win came over six furlongs at this course, so there are no fears with the surface, and she also has two wins to her name at this time of year - one on seasonal debut, and the other on this exact day last year, on her second start of the year (was well supported first time up, didn't like soft ground at Towcester, won on good to firm next time up). The Appleby stable certainly know how to get horses ready for Southwell, and you would imagine she will be fit and ready to do herself justice. Her draw in stall ten is just about perfect and if she gets away smartly, she can win a race which looks weak bar the exposed course specialist Ace Of Spies.

5.20 Southwell South Kenter 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 18/1 VC Bet guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Backing inexperienced hold up horses in Southwell handicaps is a continuation of the "punting suicide" theme mentioned above, but there are real reasons to support South Kenter today. Sire Silver Deputy's progeny have a 25% strike rate at this track, and horses with the "U.S.A." suffix to their breeding are profitable to back blind on their course debuts. Heather Main doesn't send many here at all, one very moderate horse in 2009 showed nothing, but her filly Solvanna has run two nice races here on her trips to Southwell, both over inadequate trips, which would suggest the trainer has some notion of what will act on the surface and what will not, and that she can perhaps train the for the surface to some extent at least. The selection has little to recommend him on form, but he has a huge galloping stride which looked out of place on polytrack last twice (simply couldn't get himself together to quicken at all), saying that he has a high enough cruising speed which will come in handy on this surface. He has been awarded a basement mark of OR48, and in a first time visor (tongue tie removed) with a good 5lb claimer booked from a good draw, he may not be a forlorn hope on his handicap debut. This race is absolutely overloaded with pace, so one of two things will happen: either the selection will lose ground at the start, and get caught in a sandstorm losing all chance, or he will show an ability to handle the surface and travel behind the pacesetters. If the latter unfolds, I would expect him to go close to winning against a largely exposed bunch of rivals

Profit & loss: day: +2.00 / month: +20.50 / year: +27.66

Tuesday 21st May 2013

A relatively unappealing day betting wise, but we do have one interest at Nottingham.

2.50 Nottingham 

Khefyn 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Add 1pt win @ Betfair SP (Total 3pts win 1pt place)

Not a lot of each-way value here with 15 runners, so despite the price I'm happy enough to weight the stake towards the win part of the bet, taking advantage of Betfair SP for the chance of a bigger payout.

Khefyn represents the Ron Harris yard, whose horses started the flat turf season fairly slowly (with the exception of his two year olds). However, the evidence of the last week suggests they are coming right back to form, with stalwarts Judge 'n' Jury, Prodigality and Secret Witness all running well at York, in addition to Vincentti, a three year old who was denied only by a nose at 33/1. Noverre To Go also went close at Windsor last night, and it is only a matter of time before they get back to winning ways - perhaps Khefyn can be the next horse to win for them. He looks overpriced in a generally poor quality three year old's only sprint. He was hard to catch right as a two year old, but won his maiden at Ffos Llas on good ground, before an impressive six length win on soft ground at Chepstow. He possesses the best speed figure in this field as a result of that Chepstow win, and comes out joint top on Racing Post Ratings too. He was somewhat underwhelming on both starts this year so far, but the stable's turf horses were behind and he did show up well at this track on his seasonal debut before fading. There was more promise nine days later at Bath, and he has had a nice break of a month to get him right in the interim. The handicapper has dropped him 4lb which looks very useful and arguably quite fair, and cheekpieces are applied to help him focus. Luke Morris is riding out of his skin these days and looks the perfect booking, all in all 25/1 looks too big and he will be our only interest of the afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +18.50 / year: +25.66

Monday 20th May 2013

A nice winner yesterday capping off a good week, and hopefully you all got 18/1+. A little annoyed we didn't go with Betfair SP for the win only part of the bet but it is really hard to tell sometimes which way the market will go - 18/1 was good value so we took it.

Two for this afternoon.

3.30 Southwell Blue Top 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Improved somewhat dramatically for his first start on an artificial surface last week, going close to winning at Wolverhampton and only collared close home. He has never raced here, but he is an out and out galloper with no turn of foot, who runs from the front and is uncomplicated. He looks certain to be suited by this surface, and it is interesting that he is related to a very decent fibresand performer on his dam's side. There are question marks about some of the principals here and at the prices Blue Top is taken to cause an upset.

4.00 Southwell Viva L'Inghilterra 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Represents a stable renowned for sprinters and a sire whose progeny boast a 26% strike rate at this track. Looking at her action at Kempton on her most recent start, it screams fibresand and I have little doubt she will act on the surface. The stable's horses are just coming into form, and although stall 2 is a slight worry (you don't want to be on the inside rail) the selection seems to have plenty of speed and she should outrun her odds at least if she gets away well and has some luck in running.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +22.50 / year: +29.66

Sunday 19th May 2013

Just one for today.

3.40 Ripon Ardmay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 18/1 Boylesports, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

Form figures of 1172 for Amy Ryan who is reunited with this gelding today and he goes well at a turning track and on soft ground. His reappearance was a little underwhelming but he blatantly needed it and showed up well for a long way before toiling on ground which was too firm for him. He gets his ideal conditions today and is very well handicapped with relation to the favourite Hi There based on a piece of Pontefract form from last Autumn. With the dead eight running, he makes plenty of each-way appeal and I'd make him a 12/1 shot here so the price is right.

Profit & loss: day: +44.00 / month: +28.50 / year: +35.66

Saturday 18th May 2013

ust one for this evening.

7.00 Doncaster Goodwood Mirage 5pts win @ 9/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)

The ground at Doncaster is set to be fairly testing, and that won't suit a few of these. In addition, I'm not sure Cape Peron is certain to progress from his win last time out, his trainer tends to have his horses ready first time up and he is described as a fizzy type, not always the sort of horse who backs up in my view. Goodwood Mirage handled soft ground well on his debut and won impressively, his sire Jeremy is producing a good quality of horse under both codes and it is interesting the selection has been withdrawn twice due to fast ground - connections clearly feel he needs cut and although he has been ready to run, they think enough of him not to rush him. He has multiple entries in the coming days, but the ground has very much come right for him here and with the stable in form, and Neil Callan making the trip from Thirsk to ride, he is selected to confirm the promise of his debut win.

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Afternoon bets:

The rain got into the ground just a bit too much for Bronze Beau last night, he landed each-way money but he may have won on a sounder surface.

A really busy Saturday for us, with the flat form settling down I would like to think we have good lines on most of the form and as a result we're going through a busy period.

We may have evening bets too, released before 5.00pm.

Please also note that we'll be running our twice/thrice annual free trial on the forum over the coming days, it lasts around ten days, does not include any ante post bets, and clients get all the selections first.

2.40 Newbury

Joe Packet 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Harrison George 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 22/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Joe Packet is not a horse you associate with winning first time out, but the booking of Tom Queally, who has a 14% strike rate here on 4yo+ returning an l.s.p. of +29.79 to the pound stake catches the eye. He has ridden the horse twice in the past, second in a maiden and on 2010 seasonal debut over a mile when the selection ran really well but faded. There is every chance this is a prep for one of the Royal Ascot handicaps, but there are question marks about many of these and none of the opposition have run as well at this track as Joe Packet has. The selection's third in a listed contest behind Chilworth Lad and Colonial in 2011 is really strong form in the context of this race, and it is also interesting that the selection posted a lifetime best RPR last time out behind Mince on unsuitable ground, after a couple of months off last October. He looks overpriced.

Harrison George has form that ties him in closely with Poole Harbour (8/1) and Khawatim (6/1) here. He finished an arguably unlucky second (in front too soon) at Lingfield last weekend and although the ground will be quicker here, he has form on a sound surface and if he can lay up early doors he will be finishing to good effect from a draw which affords his jockey options. I'm not massively keen on Martin Dwyer, and he hasn't been riding many winners, but the horse is in really decent nick right now and ought to be on the premises at a big price.

3.30 Newmarket Tamayuz Star 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The Hannon stable are in fine form right now and they send two horses to contest this race. Jimmy Fortune rides Baltic Knight but perhaps Pat Dobbs had the choice with Richard Hughes at Newbury and it is interesting he sticks with Tamayuz Star (has ridden him all starts anyway). The selection's form on a sound surface from 2012 looks very strong, and there was nothing wrong with his reappearance behind Zanetto (whom he beat last year, Zanetto had the advantage of a run last time out) when he may just have needed the race. There are some horses in here that seem to be prepping for other races, and others with problems (Dundonnell) whose connections seem to be experimenting, not the case with Tamayuz Star and he should outrun his price at 12/1.

4.00 Thirsk Kyleakin Lass 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Really caught the eye last time out at Goodwood, travelling all over the rest of the field in the manner of an improved filly, going down in a photo to an unexposed Sir Michael Stoute hotpot under a jockey (Kieren Fallon) who was on fire that day (and still is). The selection handles soft ground really well and although she is up 4lb for her last performance, she looks to have leading claims here and is probably a point too big at 4/1. The booking of the excellent James Sullivan is a bonus, he has a good record on horses he rides for the first time and it is nice to see him picking up a decent ride like this.

Profit & loss: day: -19.00 / month: -15.50 / year: -8.34

Friday 17th May 2013

The Hamilton 5 furlong sprint is the one we're interested in tonight.

9.05 Hamilton

Almond Branches 1pt each-way @ 22/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Bronze Beau 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 3rd

A rail draw might well be an advantage here and the speedy Bronze Beau gets just that. He has made all for all four of his wins and it is interesting that James Sullivan, who piloted him for all four, is reunited with him this evening. The selection received a very dubious ride from Jacob Butterfield last time out at Catterick, enough to raise the alarm bell for me and I think the horse might be coming back to himself. The handicap mark is right if so, and these conditions present no problem to him.

Almond Branches has some good back form from last season and a good excuse for her last run as she may have resented a tongue tie. Her connections seem to specialise in big priced winners with two 50/1 shots going in for them last year, one ridden by today's pilot Paddy Aspell. Indeed Paddy Aspell is 4/7 from his rides at Hamilton this season and it seems he has taken a liking to the track. Sharon Watt seems to be a capable trainer whose horses seem to be trying no matter what the market says, and looking at some of her past form I have to say the selection really interested me. She is also arguably well drawn and should get a good tow in from Bronze Beau and Boucher Garcon. She has not raced here before but she seems to enjoy Catterick's undulations and is a summer filly (wins in June and July). We might be catching her a run or two too soon, but she should enjoy the downhill run and stiff finish here and at 20/1+ she looks a really good bet.

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Afternoon bets:

A nice winner last night with a drift out to 12/1 as a bonus. Two bets for this afternoon and evening bets to be released before 5.00pm with the possibility of price alerts too.

1.45 York Majestic Alexander 4pts win @ 13/2 (Bet 365, Boylesports, VC Bet, independents, get guaranteed)

Really impressed on debut, particularly with the way she saw out her race and the form of that maiden has worked out. She reopposes with Blithe Spirit who was green that day, but the cut in the ground would lead me to suggest you want a strong finisher to win this. She should get a good tow in from Eric Alston's filly and Beldale Memory, and it is just a matter of getting a decent sustained run then and being good enough. 13/2 looks very fair, 9/2 looks the right price in my view.

3.50 York My Name Is Rio 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Progressed on both starts so far and looked a sprinter with a future when winning going away at Southwell on debut and even more so at Nottingham when he was hampered and probably should have won. You have to think he will come on a tonne for that experience too and with his stable in winning form here this week, he makes plenty of appeal at 6/1.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +3.50 / year: +10.66

Thursday 16th May 2013

Lethal Force was touched off by Society Rock yesterday, spoiling a big payout, but Lancelot Du Lac won easily in the last and the early 14/1 proved too big with the S.P. only 8/1. We've had a lot of big priced selections run really well recently and it is only a matter of time before the profits start to add up.

1.45 York Ponty Acclaim 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed)

Career record fresh reads 12 and some of her form from last season, when she was winless but raced in top graded company, looks exceptional in terms of the handicap company she races in this afternoon. A handicap mark of OR94 looks very favourable indeed up against some of the ratings she ran in 2012, and it deserves extra merit because it isn't easy for sprinters in their three year old seasons (statistically not favourable for 3yo to race against older horses in sprint races). The selection is likely to be ready to run this afternoon with her trainer often targeting this meeting, and a draw in stall 18 might be in her favour given the apparent near side rail bias yesterday. She comes out tops on speed figures, and 16/1 is too big - given that this is akin to a drop in grade she looks really decent value.

8.35 Newmarket Sir Maximilian 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 12/1

A feature of this season for me so far is that more and more trainers seem to be able to get sprinters run well first time out and even win. Modern training methods are such that racecourse gallops and work at home can be enough to get a horse fit, and with that in mind I'm inclined to take a chance on the selection this evening. He is the best horse in the race on official ratings but he is also on the improve and some of his figures from last season are well ahead of his handicap mark today. With the stalls on the far side, a low draw will probably be favourable and stall three could be an advantage. There isn't anything to be scared on in this line up and if the selection is fit, he should go close to winning - he cost 30,000Gns from Ed Dunlop so was not a cheap cast off and connections will be keen to see their outlay rewarded sooner rather than later.

Profit & loss: day: +36.40 / month: +13.50 / year: +20.66

Wednesday 15th May 2013

A fantastic day's racing and a really strong card for day one of the Dante meeting.

1.45 York Clayton 4pts win @ 6/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Kevin Ryan would tend to target this meeting with his better horses and Clayton looks like he remains on the right side of the handicapper, and has a leading form chance in the opener on day one. The selection finished well at Epsom on his seasonal debut in a strong looking handicap, but it was noticeable he didn't handle Epsom's undulations that well and there seemed to be plenty left in the tank at the finish. The return to a flat galloping track should suit him well, and given the right ride by Neil Callan and normal luck in running he should go close to winning. I prefer him over Lahaah and First Mohican who both look underpriced and have question marks against them given recent form, Ruscello would be the danger in my book but is unproven on the ground and at the prices Clayton looks better value although he is shorter.

3.15 York

Lethal Force 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ladies Are Forever 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The Cheka 1pt win @ Betfair SP

A cracking sprint which has a history of throwing up shocks. It is anyone's guess where the faster ground will be, or even what the ground will ride like, so it seems prudent to take three against the field who look overpriced and have some sort of form chance. Indeed I'm not keen on anything in the 10/1 or under bracket here and am quite keen to take the principals on.

Lethal Force represents a stable in fine form, whose horses have tended to be ready first time up, including Poetic Dancer who was unlucky not to win for us at Doncaster on Monday. The selection has winning Group 2 form and bundles of speed, it seems a sprint campaign has been mapped out and it is no wonder given how fast he is. The Jubilee at Royal Ascot will be his big target and he is said to have done well from three to four. He won his maiden on good to soft but we are only guessing about the ground and his ability to handle York's unique soil type. He looks an Ascot horse in my view, but at 20/1 he is overpriced here against many horses who have not won at this level in the past. He is drawn in stall 15 and there has to be a chance he'll bag the near side rail and play catch me if you can.

Ladies Are Forever won a pair of Lingfield sprints this spring and is another who is improving fast. The form of those races is working out well and she possesses some really strong speed figures, including the second best figure at this track, 1 point off that of the favourite. She saw that York contest out really well, strong at the finish, and is she transfers her all weather improvement to turf she is a danger to all.

It is hard to resist a saver on The Cheka at a huge price, and hopefully Betfair SP will be kind to us here. He was second in this race last year and is likely to get a good tow into the race. He didn't have a going day last time, his trainer asserting that "he didn't like the wind and the rain", but he is a horse that tends to pop up when least expected and he might just have a good draw in stall 17.

5.00 York Lancelot Du Lac 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Boylesports, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed) - WON

Travelled really well over course and distance last year when finishing second behind Mystery Bet, and struck me at the time as a big weak two year old who would be better for the winter on his back. It is interesting, then, that Ryan Moore is booked on his three year old seasonal debut and given that he is proven at the track and on the ground, he looks worth supporting at odds I make around five points too big. A strong pace will suit him, and I expect him to be buried out the back until late on. This is a difficult race to decipher, but the jockey booking looks really interesting and I am sure there is more to come from the selection this year off a mark of OR83.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: -22.90 / year: -15.74

Monday 13th May 2013

Just one selection for Monday.

4.25 Doncaster Poetic Dancer 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed), AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP. - E/W 2nd

Has to prove she can produce her best first time up, but her trainer's string are in fine form now and some of her handicap form from last season is stacking up really well. Connections felt she was unsuited to the all weather during the winter and put her away, but they have managed to get her handicap mark down to OR85 as a result. She has the services of a good 5lb claimer on her back, and her hold up style will be perfectly suited to the demands of this course. A strong headwind is reported at Doncaster, and if finishers are favoured her ability to get seven furlongs strongly will stand her in good stead. Many of the principals in here have questions to answer and at a double figure price the selection makes plenty of appeal.

Profit & loss: day: +4.00 / month: -45.50 / year: -38.34

Saturday 11th May 2013

We were a little unlucky last night with George Cinq only being beaten by a canny ride from Franny Norton.

Evening selections may follow, details before 5.00pm.

2.05 Ascot Noble Alan 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd

Not as good a race as it first looks on paper. Water has been applied to Swinley Bottom and looking at yesterday's evidence, it pays to race handy and you don't want to be held up right in rear. I find it interesting Nicky Richards sends Noble Alan down this far, and books Paul Hanagan to ride. The selection has a very good record fresh and has found his stride as a flat performer, with his win at Thirsk on his last start looking particularly strong. The second has gone on to post an RPR of 100 on his most recent start having won on his next run after Noble Alan beat him. It looks the best form on offer here and If the selection is ready to go, then his price is far too big.

3.50 Ascot Mabait 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, get 5 places guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

I'm hoping the showers don't get into the ground for this one, at the moment satellite pictures suggest not. Mabait gets professional handling for the first time in a while today, ridden by a jockey who has given us a couple of great days here on Society Rock, Pat Cosgrave. I have an inkling he is drawn in the right place in stall 11, and his Ascot speed figures are above and beyond anything else in here. He has had a couple of prep runs, and I find it interesting connections did not send him to Dubai this year. The stable are in decent nick and if you can get 5 places each-way, then 40/1 looks huge.

4.25 Ascot The Tichborne 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Has a couple of seriously good pieces of Ascot form to his name. The draw is a question mark here but the selection seems to have been successfully reinvented as a sprinter and hold up tactics over six furlongs now seem to suit him ideally. I think he can improve again at his favourite track and 12/1 is too big. The stable have been in good form just lately and I don't see much in here to be scared of, for a horse who came third in the Britannia Stakes not so long ago.

Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: -49.50 / year: -42.34

Friday 10th May 2013

Two selections for this evening, look out for potential Saturday price alerts this evening.

6.00 Ascot Tappanappa 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

Brian Ellison has had a hell of a job getting this ex-Balding inmate right, he is a horse who takes a lot of knowing and seems to be difficult to train. However, his three 2013 runs have all offered hope and his recent Doncaster run makes him look quite well handicapped and is his best on turf for a long time. The selection was held up at Doncaster, and travelled really well as he usually does. He was produced on the rail by Dane O'Neill to challenge for the lead but he got there far too early in my view, eventually being overrun into third by Lieutenant Miller, whose form ties in closely with that of today's favourite Sign Manual - based on that run and collateral form, the selection has 8lb to find on Sign Manual for a defeat of around 1 1/4 lengths, definitely achievable. However, it is the jockeys that really interest me given the hold up tactics required by both horses. Hayley Turner has a 5% strike rate at Ascot, William Buick has a 12% strike rate and in my view rides the round course as good as anyone. He has ridden Tappanappa before and knows he needs to be produced late. The selection has never run at Ascot, but the course generally suits horses who travel strongly and like to pounce late on passing beaten horses. At 12/1+, I think Tappanappa has a fine chance of causing an upset this evening.

8.15 Ascot George Cinq 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Represents Michael Bell, and ridden by the aforementioned Hayley Turner. I think George Cinq is well overpriced coming from a yard whose horses tend to go well at this track. He looks very unexposed but is a big, burly colt who might have needed his Yarmouth run last time. He travelled really well that day but raced on the wrong part of the track and probably needed more cover and a stronger pace to show his best - he got going again close home and I expect today's big field and stiff finish will suit him ideally. I also think he is drawn on the right side and could be very well handicapped. If he comes on for his last run, when he was sent off just 3/1, he can go close.

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One bet for this afternoon, and possible evening bets to be released before 5.00pm.

3.15 Chester Jillnextdoor 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Jillnextdoor will enjoy any cut that remains in the ground and she'll also enjoy what amounts to a class drop in all but name, this being a 0-105 with a top rated runner of OR91. She has caught the eye in better company this season already, never getting a gap in a Bath Listed contest and caught out wide at Sandown. Her only win came on a flat track and her high cruising speed means she might well enjoy the Roodee's tight turns and sharp nature. She is well drawn in stall three but I don't think she wants the lead, all the better that the horses in stall 1 and 2 are very likely to go forward. I would hope Sam Hitchcott can simply sit in third on the rail and pounce late - it's not a rocket science ride so here's hoping he can pull it off. It bodes well that the stable had a filly with a similar profile, Effie B, win here yesterday under the same type of ride.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -47.50 / year: -40.34

Thursday 9th May 2013

One interest for this afternoon, we may have an evening bet released before 5.00pm.

4.25 Chester You Da One 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 15/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

There is rain sweeping across Chester at the moment and a change in the going before this race gets underway is most likely in my opinion. That will not suit a few of these, and I'm not sure the current joint favourites will appreciate slower conditions. Of the outsiders, Tatlisu might present a threat at the bottom of the weights but You Da One really catches the eye for a stable and jockey who do well here, from stall three. The selection is a little bit of a fizzy type but ran a really promising race behind Mystery Bet at York in testing conditions over seven furlongs last year, suggesting he goes in the ground. After being turned over at long odds on on his three year old debut, he obliged at odds of 1/20 in a tinpot event last time out, but he at least showed his well being and impressed with the way he finished. The addition of a hood today might work a charm and settle him a bit better than he has been doing, if David Probert can sit handy (but not lead) and let the horse feel his way into the race, he can go very close. It is interesting to not the selection is half brother to a horse who won here on his only career start. 7/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: -1.25 / month: -39.50 / year: -32.34

Wednesday 8th May 2013

A busy day for us, and we may have evening selections too, released before 5.15pm.

2.15 Chester Hollowina 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Bred very much to get better as a three year old stepped up in distance. Said by her trainer to have wintered very well and had no interruptions in her training or setbacks. Hollowina excelled herself on debut in beating a horse who had run well in Listed company previously, and she looked a filly of some potential. She got bogged down in the ground next time out but the replay shows she finished incredibly well against some Group class fillies. She is certainly up to competing at this level, the stable are in winning form, and the jockey rides the track well. She is also drawn well and if she handles the bends ok, I fancy she'll outrun her price.

3.15 Chester Silvanus 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed - price also available on Betfair)

This would be a maximum bet from stall 1-4, alas the selection must overcome stall nine. However, I think he is the fasted horse in the race and I'm confident enough of that to say that if he gets the lead, he'll most likely win. He has a piece of form from last year at this track where he took on some hardened Chester horses, and he had them absolutely goosed by the two furlong pole. He railed extremely well, and looked a natural at the track. He will need to get that rail either in first or second place, or sit on the outside in second, in order to win here, but he is fit, ran well at Epsom last time, and is usually sharp from the stalls. Paul Hanagan knows him well and rides Chester well. It might be a frustrating bet in that we won't win if Hanagan tucks him in, if he is aggressive he takes the beating and at double figures I'm happy to base the bet on that.

3.25 Southwell Grivola 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

I can't tell you anything about this horse except that he is bred to appreciate the surface (sire won here) and he represents a stable whose modus operandi is to have their horses ready first time out - that includes a first time out winner at this track last year. The draw has been kind and Martin Dwyer takes the ride. I'm happy to take a risk here to moderate stakes at a big looking price - from the stable's record alone I'd make him an 8/1 shot.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -38.25 / year: -31.09

Tuesday 7th May 2013

Really poor racing today, and just one interest at Yarmouth. We may have price alerts this evening for Chester, keep an eye out.

5.20 Yarmouth The Ducking Stool 4pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 Boylesports, Paddy Power, guaranteed)

Yarmouth is a track that lends itself to course specialists and The Ducking Stool can probably be regarded as one, having won three of four starts at the track. Her jockey Shelley Birkett has impressed in recent weeks and is good value for her 3lb claim in apprentice company. The selection can't be described as exceptionally well handicapped, but there is a bit of room to manoeuvre off OR65 and she actually won a better class of race last time she was here, pulling well clear with a rival who is arguably still improving and knows how to win. The same cannot be said for some of today's rivals: Landesherr in particular looks a frustrating type who doesn't tend to find much at the business end, and I would question Redoute Star's enthusiasm in a finish too. The favourite Final Delivery looks progressive, but I just have a slight reservation about him on this fast ground and it is important to remember he has not won on turf. The selection has ideal conditions, and you can forget her Southwell run last time out because fibresand just isn't her gig - ten furlongs on fast ground at Yarmouth definitely is. Anything 6/1 or better is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -26.25 / year: -19.09

Monday 6th May 2013

Two for today.

2.15 Kempton Touch Paper 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Made a nice debut apart from completely blowing the turn and it is interesting Hannon sends her here instead of to Ascot next Friday, especially given the trainer has a good line on the form of the favourite. I don't like either of the top two at the prices, and although she has to improve I think the selection can make use of stall 1 and her 5lb fillies allowance.

3.30 Windsor Silca's Dream 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ran a real nice race in a good Ripon sprint, quickly away and knowing his job, battling well although run into third close home. I think the form looks decent, and there might be improvement to come from this gelding as a three year old. Charles Bishop is well worth his 5lb claim and double figure prices are too big. I wouldn't mind seeing him held onto a little bit longer this time, particularly from his wide draw.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -22.25 / year: -15.09

Sunday 5th May 2013

We had to make do with each-way money from Klynch yesterday, decent stuff today but only one interest.

3.50 Newmarket Rasmeyaa 3pts win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, 14/1 generally - already advised)

It seems significant Dermot Weld sends this filly over to contest the race at all, it has been many years since he was represented in this and he doesn't tend to tilt at windmills. The selection has only won a maiden, but she posted a very good figure in doing so and was extremely impressive. The form has worked out well, and in the absence of a stand out candidate here she represents value at the prices. She is said to have worked very well last Tuesday, and if she can overcome the fact that she has only had two career starts, she might be able to cause a minor shock this afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: -13.25 / year: -6.09

Saturday 4th May 2013

A busy afternoon for us, and what a brilliant day's racing in store.

3.50 Newmarket Garswood 3pts win @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, Independents, guaranteed)

(Additional 0.5pts each-way double with Rasmeyaa 14/1 and 12/1 as advised)

I know it's sacrilege, but this horse reminded me so much of Sea The Stars with his action and relaxed manner when winning over seven furlongs on his reappearance. He has a beautiful way of moving and although he only won a handicap, connections believe he can make the step up in class and at the prices I think he is a value bet to do so. There is a question mark over his stamina, but he is so docile that I'd say there's every chance he takes  the step up to a mile in his stride. Dawn Approach is probably the best horse in the race but is no kind of price and I'm keen to take him on first time out.

4.35 Thirsk

Dubai Dynamo 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Fieldgunner Kirkup 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Dubai Dynamo represents a trainer whose horses are coming to hand, they all tend to enjoy fast ground and this fella invariably runs well here. He isn't the best handicapped horse in the race by any means but he loves conditions so much that he is worth backing at double figure odds. I can't see him not running his race and he is drawn quite well in stall nine to tuck in and pounce late on.

Fieldgunner Kirkup is an improver and has snuck in at the bottom of the handicap. He has won here twice, will enjoy prevailing ground conditions and although this is a better race, he is only a five year old and seems to be in the form of his life. 16/1 is far too big.

6.45 Doncaster

Hopes N Dreams 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Klynch 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

A cracking sprint handicap, and I'm keen to take on the favourite first time out, she takes up a fair chunk of the book at less than 2/1. Hopes N Dreams likes fast ground and caught the eye last time out at Epsom, running on late over the sharp five in a race not run to suit. She can miss the break but appears to be still well handicapped and improving. Julie Burke gets on well with her and claims a useful 3lb.

Klynch is drawn on the other side and is another from the Ruth Carr yard (see Dubai Dynamo). All ground seems to come alike to him and he has won on good to firm. A strong gallop will play into his hands and this type of track, which suits horses coming from off the pace, is what he wants. He ran a nice race at Leicester last time out and appeals as well handicapped too.

Profit & loss: day: -11.50/ month: -10.25 / year: -3.09

Friday 3rd May 2013

Just one for Friday. Please look out for price alerts throughout the evening, for the weekend's racing.

3.00 Musselburgh Satanic Beat 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 

(Generally, get guaranteed - www.betbyrne.com and www.brucebetting.com both offer 1/4 odds each way terms, generally 1/5 odds)

The Doncaster handicap Satanic Beat ran in last time out is working out as well as any handicap I've seen this season so far, despite the Racing Post's description of the race as "ordinary". The second ran well above his rating beaten a head second next time out, the fourth won a Windsor handicap, the sixth and seventh both ran above form in the same Haydock handicap as the second, the ninth won a hot handicap next time, tenth ran above form in a handicap, even the horse who came last ran above form next time out. Satanic Beat has been dropped 1lb for his effort, he was a little keen early and I don't think Doncaster suits him - he has recent winning form at Pontefract and Ripon, two tight tracks made for horses who turn well. He has come up trumps with a stall two draw here for a horse who races prominently, and connections will surely be tempted to make all this afternoon. The favourite Frontier Fighter makes the book, but he has yet to race right handed and is drawn a bit wider - a potential test for him. He also gives the selection 9lb which will be no easy task. At the prices, I feel the selection is really good each-way value and we'll play aggressively, protecting most of our stake if the selection hits the frame.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00/ month: +1.25 / year: +8.41

Thursday 2nd May 2013

No idea quite how Sean Levey ended up six horse widths ride on our selection at Kempton last night from stall 2, needless to say I wasn't happy Richard Hughes didn't make it to the track in time.

Just one selection for this evening.

6.40 Chepstow Ice Tres 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Sporting Bet, 888 Sport, William Hill, Independents)

A filly who recently found something like form and indeed was quite an eye catcher from out of the handicap in a better contest than this last time out. She had shown little in six previous starts under rules, but she appears to be learning the game and she travelled really well held up in rear for Andrea Atzeni last time out. She finished well in a race where it paid to be up with the pace, and that was a class five event - she drops in class to a 0-60 this evening. She did well to get third alongside a good all weather regular in Mazij, four lengths behind The Blue Dog, who is in the form of her life, and both of those had first run. The big field this evening should suit, and it is interesting her sire, Iceman, and Dam's sire Emperor Jones, as well as her half brother Afram Blue all showed their best form on fast turf. The stable are in good form and have a 12% strike rate with older horses at the track. These types of bets sometimes don't work out; she might not follow up, might get temperamental at the start, etcetera, but 12/1 looks a very good each-way price in this company and I'm inclined to have a decent bet.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00/ month: +9.25 / year: +16.41

Wednesday 1st May 2013

A good day today so far, one for this evening.

5.50 Kempton Shamaheart 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 13/2 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, independents, guaranteed)

Looked to have one or two problems as a two year old but has been entered in a very winnable race here and with Richard Hannon's string in flying form now, he is one to be interested in with Richard Hughes making the trip from Ascot to ride him. The selection is by Shamardal, whose progeny do well on artificial surfaces and his first start on polytrack at Wolverhampton was promising, with him staying on from a poor position. Today's trip will suit and I don't see any superstars in here - he is drawn well and I think he'll go close to winning.

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Afternoon Bets:

A busy afternoon for us. Four interests all with small stakes, one winner puts us ahead and one place means we'll lose very little for our outlay.

We may have an evening bet, released before 5.00pm.

3.00 Ascot Monsieur Chevalier 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Takes on seven rivals, and is the outsider of the bunch but Ascot as you all know is a "horses for courses" track, and the selection's Golden Jubilee runner up performance behind Society Rock sticks out like a sore thumb in this company. That was a couple of years ago now, but P.J. O'Gorman seems to have gotten the horse back close to his best and he won impressively last time out, putting distance between himself and his rivals when asked. It was a weaker contest than this, but some of his rivals may not be race fit and with the dead eight, he not only makes each-way appeal but there might not be much pace on, meaning there is every chance he will get the mile (has been settling well in his races lately). Kieren Fallon is riding out of his skin in my view and at the prices, the selection makes loads of appeal at a track he loves.

3.55 Pontefract Centred 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, William Hill) - WON

Three year olds don't have a good record in this contest, and as such the older horses have been popular. The sample size is quite small, though, and I find it interesting Sir Michael Stoute sends this well bred filly to Pontefract for a handicap instead of picking up a tinpot maiden and getting a win on the board. He has taken the trouble to book Silvestre De Sousa, and on the visual evidence of her third run at Kempton I think she will improve a bundle for the winter on her back and extra two furlongs. She was only getting going late on in that race, and looked ready to show a lot more only as she hit the finish line. The stable's fillies have been going well and 6/1 looks too big.

4.10 Ascot Snow King 3pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

John Gosden produced a three year old to challenge for the Golden Jubilee a few years back in Showboating, who reappeared in the Duke Of York that year and finished an excellent second to Prime Defender. He went on to bomb out in the jubilee, but the trainer clearly has a good handle on sprinters and it is really interesting Snow King is started off in this six furlong sprint at a track where he broke his maiden. He retains a Diamond Jubilee entry and a Group 1 sprint campaign seems to be on the agenda. Thinking in those terms, this contest looks winnable and given that the selection is proven at the track and looks exactly the strong travelling, strong finishing type required for the particular test, he is worth backing on seasonal debut here.

4.45 Ascot Good Authority 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 3rd

Good Authority looks overpriced as a similarly strong travelling type who needs holding up off a strong pace to show his best. His recent reappearance will have blown the cobwebs away, and he looks well handicapped on his Leicester form last season where he beat Konstantin in a race that has worked out very well. Fast turf suits him ideally (better than the all weather in hindsight) and you have to ask what price Konstantin would be if he showed up here. Luke Morris takes the ride and I have an inkling, although it is really hard to predict, that he might be drawn in a favourable part of the track with the stalls in the centre.

Profit & loss: day: +16.25 / month: +16.25 / year: +23.41

Tuesday 30th April 2013

Poor quality racing for the most part today, but we have one interest at Yarmouth and our beloved Ascot returns tomorrow!

5.10 Yarmouth Landesherr 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 6/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Represents a stable who have been having winners under National Hunt rules, whose flat horses I usually associate as being better on good ground. Indeed Landesherr has only had eight starts on turf, but his record looks better than his all weather record and he may just be one of those horses who prefers the natural underfoot surface. He has a marked preference for faster ground, his one win came on good and he has two pieces of form from last season that stand out here - his second to the now OR85 rated (and surely bound for better still) Tis Rock 'N' Roll over ten furlongs here giving him 2lbs looks head and shoulders above any other recent form here, and his Beverley third next time out would also be good enough to win this. His win came over this kind of trip, and I have no stamina concerns. He drops in class down to a 0-55 and looks very well handicapped - I would be of the opinion that might be down to his lesser ability on all weather surfaces, and I'm inclined to give him a chance with ideal conditions today, and the notable booking of a very good 3lb claimer.

Profit & loss: day: +0.50 / month: -81.60 / year: +7.16

Saturday 27th April 2013

Chil The Kite traded long odds on in running yesterday before failing to really get home. He has an awkward head carriage and unless headgear sharpens his focus I can't see him making the step up to Group company.

One race of interest today. We won't have any selections tomorrow.

3.50 Sandown - Bet 365 Gold Cup Chase

Tatenen 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Mr. Moss 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Tatenen jumped well for the most part before coming down in the National and if he has recovered sufficiently having gotten up and galloped around afterwards, I think he has a good chance of outrunning his odds. He has put in a couple of spectacular rounds of jumping this season and has long been on my radar as a well handicapped horse. He is the type who needs everything to fall right (no pun intended) but the return to a right handed track this afternoon should enable him to put his best foot forward. He excels at Ascot, but has only run here once and posted an RPR of 151 in a listed chase, many moons ago for Paul Nicholls. He looks nicely handicapped off OR136 this afternoon and the way the weights are framed here will suit him better than the National. There is no doubt he would be a shock winner but I think there is another day in the sun for him at some stage, at the prices I feel he is under rated and worth of each-way and win support to small stakes.

Mr. Moss has more obvious claims. His second at Doncaster came in a race where he pulled really hard, and I was surprised he got home so well to almost win. He doesn't look the most resolute in a finish and it is interesting connections use a tongue tie today, suggesting his breathing may not be 100%. If his jumping holds up, Sandown's sharper turns might suit him well, expect his jockey to produce him late but you might want to put in an in running lay at around 2.02 in case the stiff climb to the finish exposes a weakness in his temperament - the jury is out on that score at the moment and he is given the benefit of the doubt.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -82.10 / year: +6.56