Thursday 4th April 2013

A fantastic card for day one of Aintree's Festival meeting. We have four account bets in total and it is a busy day no doubts about it, so be careful to keep the stakes exactly as advised.

2:00 Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y

Selection: Runswick Royal 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 20/1 VC Bet, 18/1 Paddy Power, both guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I thought the Triumph this season was abysmal, the winner apart, and I was inclined to oppose the "name" horses from the start with something progressive from left field and Runswick Royal fits that bill. Connections' comments after Doncaster last time out hint at the regard he is held in:

"Wilson Renwick said he is one of the best horses he has ever sat on and said we should go to Aintree. He may go there but we will see. He will probably have one more run first, as he was a bit green in front". - Ian Hamilton, owner.

Aintree has been the aim since that win last time out and the selection looks overpriced based on the fact that he hails from a small stable. He is not taking a traditional route to this race but it might be an advantage that he skipped Cheltenham and his Newcastle win was really impressive. You have to ask, what price would a Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls horse be having won that impressively? Probably around 9/1 in my view. He is sired by a Group 1 winning flat stallion and is Irish bred, two positives for this race. He has a really high cruising speed, and I think he might improve for the likely stronger pace. He looked a really good, fluent jumper at Doncaster and with a hold up ride he should go close to a place here. Anything 18/1+ is too big and if you managed the 22/1, you're on a really good bet at the prices.

2:30 Betfred Bowl Chase Grade 1 Cl1 3m1f

Selection: Quito De La Roque 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

We could get an inflated SP if Silviniaco Conti is well backed here so part of the stake will be at Betfair SP. The Gold Cup was a brutal test and was only three weeks ago, time and again you see horses disappoint who had a hard race at Cheltenham and that rules out all but the selection, Wayward Prince, and Whodoyouthink. Quito De La Rock was impressive when coming back to form last time out and ought to be good enough to run into a place at least  - his run last time was his best for some time and if he can travel as well on this ground as he did last time, I expect him to go very close. He has won here on good ground in the past.

3:05 John Smith´s Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f

Non account bet: The New One to win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

This is an incredibly tough race to decipher, and many of those in with a realistic chance have already had hard races at Cheltenham. My advice is watch this and enjoy it for the wonderful renewal it is, but if I had to nail my colours to the mast, there is only one potential 2014 Champion Hurdle winner in here and that is The New One. I was really impressed with him at Cheltenham, having not been a fan beforehand, and I think he could put this lot to the sword - many of them had tough races against Hurricane Fly in what was a brutally tough Champion Hurdle and may not bring their A-game here. Saying that, The New One has a stone to find on Cheltenham form so I won't be backing him personally. It is interesting that Boylesports, who have a good line on Paul Nicholls horses in my experience (I've heard a few classic old tales about this I might tell another time) are ducking Zarkandar, offering only 4/1, and he would be a token second choice. Sit back and enjoy a fabulous renewal. 

3:40 John Smith´s Fox Hunters´ Chase Cl2 2m5f110y

Selection: Mourne Paddy 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Mourne Paddy is a bit of a shot in the dark, but his trainer is respected greatly and can get a horse ready. His formlines are really interesting. His run at Down Royal last time out catches the eye, he was second to a horse who was travelling well with Tammy's Hill next time out before falling. Mourne Paddy was actually travelling all over that rival but seemed to falter late on on the heavy ground. He is by a sire, Winged Love, whose progeny tend to prefer better ground and he will get that this afternoon. We can't know if he'll take to the fences but at the prices he is worth a small interest - the formline looks tentative but it is interesting nonetheless and it might be there is still improvement to come from the selection after only one start under rules.

4:15 matalan Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 Cl1 2m

Selection: Echo Bob 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Paddy Power, Brucebetting.com, guaranteed)

Ran really well in this contest last year finishing third, but he had the others pretty much goosed when Edgardo Sol, the easy winner, came upsides and probably came across him causing him to blunder. He faded and finished third, but that was on softer ground than he gets today and the selection wants it like a road. He has been aimed specifically at this race again and conditions have come right for him. His handicap mark is the same as last years. The excellent Brian Cooper takes the ride, and he makes plenty of each-way appeal at 14/1.

4:50 Betfred Manifesto Novices´ Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f

Non account bet: Changing Times each-way @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

No real betting interest here but Changing Times finished ahead of Captain Conan at Cheltenham and although he was ridden for a place, the price discrepancy is still too great. I'd much sooner back Changing Times each-way here and for those of you having a bet, that's the advice.

5:25 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cl1 3m110y

Non account bet: Baby Shine each-way @ 18/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

No bet here but Baby Shine's form is stacking up very well, a recent wind operation has seen her return to her best and conditions will suit her this afternoon. I toyed with having a bet, but we have enough on the day and this race looks ultra competitive. If you must have a bet, she looks to have as good a chance as any.

Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: -28.00 / year: +61.66