6.00 Ascot Tappanappa 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)
Brian Ellison has had a hell of a job getting this ex-Balding inmate right, he is a horse who takes a lot of knowing and seems to be difficult to train. However, his three 2013 runs have all offered hope and his recent Doncaster run makes him look quite well handicapped and is his best on turf for a long time. The selection was held up at Doncaster, and travelled really well as he usually does. He was produced on the rail by Dane O'Neill to challenge for the lead but he got there far too early in my view, eventually being overrun into third by Lieutenant Miller, whose form ties in closely with that of today's favourite Sign Manual - based on that run and collateral form, the selection has 8lb to find on Sign Manual for a defeat of around 1 1/4 lengths, definitely achievable. However, it is the jockeys that really interest me given the hold up tactics required by both horses. Hayley Turner has a 5% strike rate at Ascot, William Buick has a 12% strike rate and in my view rides the round course as good as anyone. He has ridden Tappanappa before and knows he needs to be produced late. The selection has never run at Ascot, but the course generally suits horses who travel strongly and like to pounce late on passing beaten horses. At 12/1+, I think Tappanappa has a fine chance of causing an upset this evening.
8.15 Ascot George Cinq 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Represents Michael Bell, and ridden by the aforementioned Hayley Turner. I think George Cinq is well overpriced coming from a yard whose horses tend to go well at this track. He looks very unexposed but is a big, burly colt who might have needed his Yarmouth run last time. He travelled really well that day but raced on the wrong part of the track and probably needed more cover and a stronger pace to show his best - he got going again close home and I expect today's big field and stiff finish will suit him ideally. I also think he is drawn on the right side and could be very well handicapped. If he comes on for his last run, when he was sent off just 3/1, he can go close.
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One bet for this afternoon, and possible evening bets to be released before 5.00pm.
3.15 Chester Jillnextdoor 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Jillnextdoor will enjoy any cut that remains in the ground and she'll also enjoy what amounts to a class drop in all but name, this being a 0-105 with a top rated runner of OR91. She has caught the eye in better company this season already, never getting a gap in a Bath Listed contest and caught out wide at Sandown. Her only win came on a flat track and her high cruising speed means she might well enjoy the Roodee's tight turns and sharp nature. She is well drawn in stall three but I don't think she wants the lead, all the better that the horses in stall 1 and 2 are very likely to go forward. I would hope Sam Hitchcott can simply sit in third on the rail and pounce late - it's not a rocket science ride so here's hoping he can pull it off. It bodes well that the stable had a filly with a similar profile, Effie B, win here yesterday under the same type of ride.
Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -47.50 / year: -40.34
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