9.05 Hamilton
Almond Branches 1pt each-way @ 22/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Bronze Beau 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 3rd
A rail draw might well be an advantage here and the speedy Bronze Beau gets just that. He has made all for all four of his wins and it is interesting that James Sullivan, who piloted him for all four, is reunited with him this evening. The selection received a very dubious ride from Jacob Butterfield last time out at Catterick, enough to raise the alarm bell for me and I think the horse might be coming back to himself. The handicap mark is right if so, and these conditions present no problem to him.
Almond Branches has some good back form from last season and a good excuse for her last run as she may have resented a tongue tie. Her connections seem to specialise in big priced winners with two 50/1 shots going in for them last year, one ridden by today's pilot Paddy Aspell. Indeed Paddy Aspell is 4/7 from his rides at Hamilton this season and it seems he has taken a liking to the track. Sharon Watt seems to be a capable trainer whose horses seem to be trying no matter what the market says, and looking at some of her past form I have to say the selection really interested me. She is also arguably well drawn and should get a good tow in from Bronze Beau and Boucher Garcon. She has not raced here before but she seems to enjoy Catterick's undulations and is a summer filly (wins in June and July). We might be catching her a run or two too soon, but she should enjoy the downhill run and stiff finish here and at 20/1+ she looks a really good bet.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon bets:
A nice winner last night with a drift out to 12/1 as a bonus. Two bets for this afternoon and evening bets to be released before 5.00pm with the possibility of price alerts too.
1.45 York Majestic Alexander 4pts win @ 13/2 (Bet 365, Boylesports, VC Bet, independents, get guaranteed)
Really impressed on debut, particularly with the way she saw out her race and the form of that maiden has worked out. She reopposes with Blithe Spirit who was green that day, but the cut in the ground would lead me to suggest you want a strong finisher to win this. She should get a good tow in from Eric Alston's filly and Beldale Memory, and it is just a matter of getting a decent sustained run then and being good enough. 13/2 looks very fair, 9/2 looks the right price in my view.
3.50 York My Name Is Rio 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Progressed on both starts so far and looked a sprinter with a future when winning going away at Southwell on debut and even more so at Nottingham when he was hampered and probably should have won. You have to think he will come on a tonne for that experience too and with his stable in winning form here this week, he makes plenty of appeal at 6/1.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +3.50 / year: +10.66
No comments:
Post a Comment