3.05 Newbury Tipping Over 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, get guaranteed)
Boylesports now also offer 33/1 guaranteed
A really interesting renewal of this handicap, but what strikes me is that the top three in the market have all shown signs of temperament. Ribaat looked talented when winning his maiden, but his attitude stank second time out and although that type of horse is often best caught fresh (and as such he may win today) he is not for me at 9/4. Nor is So Beloved, who can be keen and was temperamental at the start before bombing out at 11/10 last time out. He looks the best handicapped horse on form but it is interesting his trainer has him in a handicap rather than a conditions or listed race, and he may have been slow to come to hand (trainer states he'll come on for the run). Hasopop was a late headway horse at Lingfield but hung and didn't look an easy ride, not for me. Baltic Knight and Hay Dude are the two interesting ones, but neither look bomproof or necessarily great value and I notice Tipping Over is well handicapped against Baltic Knight on two year old form, and I also think a mark of OR87 is fair for her anyway. She beat Tell Dad to win her maiden, form which has worked out really well, but connections spent most of the summer looking for black type which may not have suited. It wasn't until she excelled herself in a valuable Irish sales race (unlucky not to win) that they figured out seven furlongs suited well, and she is best forgiven her effort in France soon after. It is anyone's guess whether she will train on, her dam did not but wasn't very good anyway, but the trainer excels with fillies and he has had one or two run well in recent weeks. Ryan Moore is booked, and given her honest temperament and simple running style, she might just cause a shock here at big odds.
Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -27.10 / year: +61.56
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