One bet for this evening - keep an eye out for possible price alerts tonight for tomorrow's racing.
8.45 Musselburgh Silkelly 5pts win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed) - WON
David O'Meara is a force to be reckoned with these days, and his Scottish sojourns have been a particularly good source of winners for the yard over the past couple of seasons. The maiden Silkelly won at Redcar wasn't much of a race, but she did it really well and looked thoroughly professional, her physicality suggesting she would be a horse who could improve over seven furlongs and a mile as a three year old in line with her breeding. She is sent north for this qualifier tonight, and with Danny Tudhope riding I am happy to take a relatively short price about her, because this looks a weak contest and I'm not convinced about the Johnston trained favourite, who has entries in some similarly average looking contests in the coming days. I think Silkelly could be a bit better than the opposition here, and her mark of OR69 looks fair. The stable have an 18% strike rate at the track with three year olds and upwards over the course of the last five seasons, and the absence is not a worry - the actual versus expected value of all their runners coming back from 100+ days off the track is 1.11, which means that not only can the trainer get them fit first time up, but they are also underbet according to market expectations and results. Anything 3/1 or better looks good value here and it's a bonus that 10/3 and 7/2 are generally available.
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Afternoon Bets:
Another profitable day yesterday and the last few weeks have been kind to us.
2.35 Goodwood
Royal Reyah 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 with many independents, guaranteed)
Forceful Appeal 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
I think from satellite charts that you can forget your "good" ground this afternoon at Goodwood, and I expect the ground to be soft with it looking quite tacky and cutting up yesterday, followed by heavy rain this morning continuing into the afternoon.
Royal Reyah is an unexposed handicapper from a yard in form who won on his seasonal debut last time out and appears to enjoy rain softened ground. He won well at Warwick last time out beating Divine Call, a horse who likes that track and likes soft ground, quite easily. I think the performance has been somewhat underestimated by the handicapper - a 7lb rise might seem steep enough at first but that is still 9lb below the rating he ran to that day and there is clearly scope for progression. It is hard to know if he will handle Goodwood but he is drawn well and ran ok here at an October meeting last year on ground that may have been too quick for him. Double figures is too big.
At a bigger price again, Forceful Appeal makes some appeal. Bookmakers seem to have looked into the U.S.A. pedigree and his proficiency on the all weather and written his chances off somewhat, but he has a piece of form at Newmarket last year on soft ground that gives him a chance here. He made his challenge widest of all that day, was in front a furlong out, but faded into fifth behind some confirmed soft ground lovers, some of whom had an easier passage into the race on the near rail. He comes here on the back of an all weather win, and Tom Queally looks a good booking. He has stall 14 to overcome but he might be one to be held up for a late run when others have cried enough.
5.30 Goodwood Buy Art 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R
Ran a really nice race at Windsor last time out, finishing his race well despite looking a little ill at ease on the ground. I think he might handle these conditions, his sire gets soft ground winners and although he has won on faster, the Windsor race suggested he is well worth a try in a race like this. He has experience at Brighton, where he won last summer, and Bath, so this course's downhill run will hold no fears for him, and the booking of Ryan Moore is clearly a big positive. I don't think he'll be 4/1 come the off, and with 8 runners lining up this looks a bit of a thieving each-way bet, we'll stake it so we get most of our outlay back if he runs in the first three.
Profit & loss: day: +11.50 / month: +57.50 / year: +64.66
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