Monday 20th May 2013

A nice winner yesterday capping off a good week, and hopefully you all got 18/1+. A little annoyed we didn't go with Betfair SP for the win only part of the bet but it is really hard to tell sometimes which way the market will go - 18/1 was good value so we took it.

Two for this afternoon.

3.30 Southwell Blue Top 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Improved somewhat dramatically for his first start on an artificial surface last week, going close to winning at Wolverhampton and only collared close home. He has never raced here, but he is an out and out galloper with no turn of foot, who runs from the front and is uncomplicated. He looks certain to be suited by this surface, and it is interesting that he is related to a very decent fibresand performer on his dam's side. There are question marks about some of the principals here and at the prices Blue Top is taken to cause an upset.

4.00 Southwell Viva L'Inghilterra 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Represents a stable renowned for sprinters and a sire whose progeny boast a 26% strike rate at this track. Looking at her action at Kempton on her most recent start, it screams fibresand and I have little doubt she will act on the surface. The stable's horses are just coming into form, and although stall 2 is a slight worry (you don't want to be on the inside rail) the selection seems to have plenty of speed and she should outrun her odds at least if she gets away well and has some luck in running.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +22.50 / year: +29.66