7.00 Doncaster Goodwood Mirage 5pts win @ 9/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)
The ground at Doncaster is set to be fairly testing, and that won't suit a few of these. In addition, I'm not sure Cape Peron is certain to progress from his win last time out, his trainer tends to have his horses ready first time up and he is described as a fizzy type, not always the sort of horse who backs up in my view. Goodwood Mirage handled soft ground well on his debut and won impressively, his sire Jeremy is producing a good quality of horse under both codes and it is interesting the selection has been withdrawn twice due to fast ground - connections clearly feel he needs cut and although he has been ready to run, they think enough of him not to rush him. He has multiple entries in the coming days, but the ground has very much come right for him here and with the stable in form, and Neil Callan making the trip from Thirsk to ride, he is selected to confirm the promise of his debut win.
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Afternoon bets:
The rain got into the ground just a bit too much for Bronze Beau last night, he landed each-way money but he may have won on a sounder surface.
We may have evening bets too, released before 5.00pm.
Please also note that we'll be running our twice/thrice annual free trial on the forum over the coming days, it lasts around ten days, does not include any ante post bets, and clients get all the selections first.
2.40 Newbury
Joe Packet 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.
Harrison George 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 22/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.
Joe Packet is not a horse you associate with winning first time out, but the booking of Tom Queally, who has a 14% strike rate here on 4yo+ returning an l.s.p. of +29.79 to the pound stake catches the eye. He has ridden the horse twice in the past, second in a maiden and on 2010 seasonal debut over a mile when the selection ran really well but faded. There is every chance this is a prep for one of the Royal Ascot handicaps, but there are question marks about many of these and none of the opposition have run as well at this track as Joe Packet has. The selection's third in a listed contest behind Chilworth Lad and Colonial in 2011 is really strong form in the context of this race, and it is also interesting that the selection posted a lifetime best RPR last time out behind Mince on unsuitable ground, after a couple of months off last October. He looks overpriced.
Harrison George has form that ties him in closely with Poole Harbour (8/1) and Khawatim (6/1) here. He finished an arguably unlucky second (in front too soon) at Lingfield last weekend and although the ground will be quicker here, he has form on a sound surface and if he can lay up early doors he will be finishing to good effect from a draw which affords his jockey options. I'm not massively keen on Martin Dwyer, and he hasn't been riding many winners, but the horse is in really decent nick right now and ought to be on the premises at a big price.
3.30 Newmarket Tamayuz Star 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
The Hannon stable are in fine form right now and they send two horses to contest this race. Jimmy Fortune rides Baltic Knight but perhaps Pat Dobbs had the choice with Richard Hughes at Newbury and it is interesting he sticks with Tamayuz Star (has ridden him all starts anyway). The selection's form on a sound surface from 2012 looks very strong, and there was nothing wrong with his reappearance behind Zanetto (whom he beat last year, Zanetto had the advantage of a run last time out) when he may just have needed the race. There are some horses in here that seem to be prepping for other races, and others with problems (Dundonnell) whose connections seem to be experimenting, not the case with Tamayuz Star and he should outrun his price at 12/1.
4.00 Thirsk Kyleakin Lass 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Really caught the eye last time out at Goodwood, travelling all over the rest of the field in the manner of an improved filly, going down in a photo to an unexposed Sir Michael Stoute hotpot under a jockey (Kieren Fallon) who was on fire that day (and still is). The selection handles soft ground really well and although she is up 4lb for her last performance, she looks to have leading claims here and is probably a point too big at 4/1. The booking of the excellent James Sullivan is a bonus, he has a good record on horses he rides for the first time and it is nice to see him picking up a decent ride like this.
Profit & loss: day: -19.00 / month: -15.50 / year: -8.34
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