2.20 Newbury Norse Blues 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed - Bet 365 pay 5 places each-way) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
The ground is a bit of a concern but seems to be drying all the time and if Norse Blues gets away with it, I rate him an excellent bet in a fine renewal of this handicap. The selection makes his debut for David Barron, which is the crucial angle. He was purchased for 42,000gns last October, and he is only 3lb higher than when winning the Spring Cup first time out last season. His trainer has made a real habit of improving horses from other yards this winter, with examples including Newstead Abbey and Big Johnny D who both won first time for the new yard. I rate Barron as a better trainer than Sylvester Kirk, and he seems to do well when targeting horses at these handicaps, Colonel Mak's 33/1 win at Doncaster last year being an example. He has booked his go to claimer who has a good record for the yard and is 2/5 at the track, claiming 5lb. In addition he is drawn well based on yesterday's evidence, and if he gets a decent tow and luck in running I think he can win at a nice price.
2.40 Ayr Grumeti 5pts each-way @ 5/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed - Maximum Bet)
Alan King has a fine record bringing back hurdlers from long absences, Raya Star's fine reappearance at Ascot last winter and Walkon at Ascot in early 2011 (after a near two year absence) being two examples that stick out. He doesn't send them to these big races undercooked. Indeed Raya Star won this race for King last year, and he will have some idea of the strength in depth of the race with the runner up Local Hero reopposing. The two well handicapped horses, Court Minstrel and Ifandbutwhynot sit at the top of the market here, but I think it's time for a reality check. Grumeti was on a champion hurdle preparation for his top handler this season before niggling injuries got in the way, and his Triumph hurdle form and Aintree victory, both tied in with Countrywide Flame, make him the best horse in this race and the standout bet on the card. He looks very well handicapped off OR153 based on last season's form, and I think he will only need to run 4lb or 5lb above his mark to win this. 9 runners line up and circumstances are right for an each-way maximum bet - barring a fall or something going wrong I can't see him finishing outside the places, I make him much the most likely winner
Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: -42.10 / year: +46.56
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