Saturday 6th April 2013

We didn't get any breaks yesterday and I was quite disappointed with the ride given to Peckhamecho, who finished sixth having been held up last.

Another great card today, and lets hope it's a profitable afternoon.

1:45 John Smith´s Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f

Selection: Morning Royalty 1pt each-way @ 80/1 (Sporting Bet, VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com)

Nothing sticks out as very strong in this race but I'm never one to let a big price put me off and I've long been a fan of James Moffatt's Morning Royalty. He is a son of King's Theatre who will appreciate this better ground, and I was really impressed by his performances at Carlisle earlier this season, where he won twice. He didn't seem right at Catterick or Kelso but he is a horse that just might improve for the sun on his back and spring conditions. His bumper form stacks up really well, and I just find it interesting his trainer sends him here instead of taking the rest of the season off with him - they may feel his is in good enough form at home to do himself justice. He is well worth minimum stakes each-way in an eight runner race, all the better if you can get 1/4 odds with Stan James or Betpack.

2:15 John Smith´s Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m

Non account bet: Baily Green to win @ 11/4

No real interest here from a betting point of view but surely Baily Green should be favourite having finished second in the Arkle? It is hard to fathom why Overturn is a shorter price and he may not be come the off. Alderwood is the one he has to beat but I'll take the graded form over the handicap form every day of the week.

2:50 John Smith´s Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y

Selection: Smad Place 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Alan King's stable have come right into form in recent days and before Big Buck's went on a winning spree in this race, King won it with Blazing Bailey. Smad Place hasn't had much racing this year and is said to have done well since his excellent third in the World Hurdle. I don't think it is out of the question that he can turn that form around with Solwhit, and with his jockey riding really well and fast ground an assistance, I expect him to go very close to winning. The selection was still going well when he made a mistake and came down in this race last year, and I think he can make amends today.

3:25 John Smith´s Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f

Selections: 

Duke Of Lucca 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Planet Of Sound 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Duke Of Lucca has good hurdles form behind Peddlers Cross here from back in 2010, and I think he might just have needed the run behind Opening Batsman at Kempton. He reopposes with that rival off 8lb better terms and he looks a bit of an each-way no brainer at 12/1 here.

Planet Of Sound has come a long way down the handicap since his best days, but I think he has to be included especially since it seems Richard Johnson has chosen him. He simply hasn't had his ground in ages and there might be one more big day left in him off this kind of handicap mark in handicap company. It isn't so long ago that he was acquitting himself well off marks of OR158+ and he is far too tempting at a double figure price not to bet today.

4:15 John Smith´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y

Already Advised: Roberto Goldback 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, 5 places e/w advised)

Added: Teaforthree 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

From Tuesday: It is not yet clear if Barry Geraghty rides Roberto Goldback, but if he is confirmed the 33/1 currently available generally won't last. I was really impressed with the selection's win at Sandown last winter and he has been aimed at this race ever since. Good ground is preferred and conditions look likely to be in his favour. Heavy winter ground has meant he wasn't seen to best effect in recent runs, but his fifth behind Opening Batsman last time was a decent run and you'd have to expect he was not tuned to the day for the prep race. There are question marks about his stamina but he has won over three miles twice, and there is no reason to suppose it is the limit of his stamina. He is a classy horse who posted an RPR of 162 as recently as that November race, and he fits the profile of many recent winners, carrying 11-6 (as Neptune Collonges did last year) in a race which now favours class because of the compacted handicap. Take the 33/1 available and get 5 places paid where possible - he is likely to go off shorter on the day.

Teaforthree is added this morning, representing a stable whose horses have been in form at this meeting. He was noted travelling well in the Hennessy before fitness told, and his run in the Welsh National was really promising. With the compressed handicap here he gets in off a great racing weight, and despite a poor ride on Peckhamecho yesterday jockey Nick Scholfield has impressed in recent times, including on Hunt Ball at Taunton on Thursday.

5:10 John Smith´s Handicap Hurdle (For Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders) Cl2 2m110y

Non account bet: Local Hero each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

No betting interest for us here but Local Hero looks overpriced and should run a good race under what look ideal conditions for him.

5:45 John Smith´s Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f

Non account bet: Quickpick Vic each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Tony Martin last used a first time hood on Benefficient, and I like some of Quickpick Vic's form. A double figure price is too big in my opinion and if you want to have a bet, he looks the best each-way value.

Profit & loss: day: -13.50 / month: -59.50 / year: +30.16