One selection for today.
7.30 Kempton Niceofyoutotellme 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 13/2 (Totesport, Betrfed, VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed) - WON
Ralph Beckett's stable have now hit form and he had a first time gelded 3yo seasonal debutant win at Kempton last night as well as a winner at Nottingham. The selection tonight is a first time gelded 4yo seasonal debutant, who has gone well fresh in the past. He is by Hernando, whose progeny have an 18.8% strike rate when first time gelded and an A/E value of 1.09 suggesting they are underbet - and although the ROI is -3.1% I think Sir Mark Prescott short priced favourites probably account for a few of those. The trainer's gelded first time runners show a similarly decent 18.2% strike rate and a 1.12 A/E, 12% ROI.
Niceofyoutotellme looked a bit of a bridle horse last year, tending to travel well and find little off the bridle, but he did win at Pontefract and was generally progressive as the season went on. His last RPR of 91 at Sandown was a personal best and I am of the view that with another winter on his back and having been gelded, his form might improve again. He runs off a mark of OR82 which in my view he has already shown he is better than, and I expect he will be ready to do himself justice first time out. This is a decent little race and will throw up winners, but the selection represents decent each-way and win value at the prices.
Profit & loss: day: +22.10 / month: -13.10 / year: +75.56
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