Lethal Force was touched off by Society Rock yesterday, spoiling a big payout, but Lancelot Du Lac won easily in the last and the early 14/1 proved too big with the S.P. only 8/1. We've had a lot of big priced selections run really well recently and it is only a matter of time before the profits start to add up.
Career record fresh reads 12 and some of her form from last season, when she was winless but raced in top graded company, looks exceptional in terms of the handicap company she races in this afternoon. A handicap mark of OR94 looks very favourable indeed up against some of the ratings she ran in 2012, and it deserves extra merit because it isn't easy for sprinters in their three year old seasons (statistically not favourable for 3yo to race against older horses in sprint races). The selection is likely to be ready to run this afternoon with her trainer often targeting this meeting, and a draw in stall 18 might be in her favour given the apparent near side rail bias yesterday. She comes out tops on speed figures, and 16/1 is too big - given that this is akin to a drop in grade she looks really decent value.
8.35 Newmarket Sir Maximilian 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 12/1
A feature of this season for me so far is that more and more trainers seem to be able to get sprinters run well first time out and even win. Modern training methods are such that racecourse gallops and work at home can be enough to get a horse fit, and with that in mind I'm inclined to take a chance on the selection this evening. He is the best horse in the race on official ratings but he is also on the improve and some of his figures from last season are well ahead of his handicap mark today. With the stalls on the far side, a low draw will probably be favourable and stall three could be an advantage. There isn't anything to be scared on in this line up and if the selection is fit, he should go close to winning - he cost 30,000Gns from Ed Dunlop so was not a cheap cast off and connections will be keen to see their outlay rewarded sooner rather than later.
Profit & loss: day: +36.40 / month: +13.50 / year: +20.66
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