Thursday 18th April 2013

Bajan Story was a little unlucky last night but is likely to be overbet next time out - he may still be a run or two off winning by the looks of him and I'll happily leave him alone.

Two interests for this afternoon, we may also have an evening bet released before 5.00pm.

2.55 Newmarket

6pts split stakes spread evenly across numbers 1,2,3,5,7,8,10,12,13,14,15,16 all at Betfair SP.

Around 50% of this book is taken up by the favourite Ghurair, and although he is a clear form choice on two year old figures, we don't know how well he has trained on and it doesn't necessarily encourage me that connections are talking of him as a ten furlong horse, with him having been prominent in the Guineas betting. He might have been slow to come to hand and his trainer John Gosden's horses have not been in winning form. I can see a potential boilover here and I'm inclined to back everything bar the top three in the market to level stakes in the hope of netting a big priced winner. The second favourite Windhoek hails from a stable whose horses did not run well here yesterday, and while Havana Beat looks a very solid danger he does look underpriced based on what he has achieved. The draw is a potential factor here with the stalls on the far side and those drawn low may have an advantage. There are some big stables represented by horses at crazy prices here, and it is one of those races where the market just doesn't know what is going to happen if the favourite does not win. As things stand, by staking as we are, our outlay is more or less covered if Greatwood or Fehaydi wins, and we're in profit if anything at a bigger price obliges.

3.20 Ripon Swilly Ferry 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP.

This is actually a bigger price on Betfair for those of you who are inclined take exchange prices. The selection represents a stable whose horses were bang out of form for a lot of 2011 and most of 2012, but their have been definite signs of a resurgence of late and a 29% strike rate since the start of March with 12 winners (stable had ten winners by the end of April for 2012) in that period suggests things are on the up again. They scored yesterday at Beverley with a horse who achieved absolutely nothing on all starts last year, winning on his six year old debut and Swilly Ferry happens to have exactly the same profile. He is very well handicapped on old form and has one good seasonal debut run to his name a couple of years back. He will enjoy the ground and has a good draw in stall four - he is overpriced at the current odds and 2012 form does not put me off.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -23.10 / year: +65.56