Two races of interest this afternoon, there is a small chance of an evening bet, details either way before 5.00pm.
Lo and behold two non runners have destroyed favourable each-way terms but Reflect should still outrun his price here. The selection represents the Derek Shaw stable, who had a winner at Southwell yesterday following on from a 16/1 second at Newcastle the day before, following a relatively quiet period. The selection ran a really nice race at Thirsk last time out, running 5lb better than his handicap mark behind a complete handicap blot Roman Flight. He beat an in form Arizona John who franked the form by winning the other night, and Mr Snoozy, who finished sixth, has since won at Doncaster. The form looks strong and the run was all the more meritorious given that the selection didn't really travel early on and was held up detached in last place. A visor is added this afternoon and I would hope that will help him focus on the job and travel sweeter. If he does, he looks really well handicapped off a mark of OR77 based on his last run and indeed his two course and distance runs for Richard Hannon in 2011. that was a long time ago but a second behind Brown Panther and third behind Highland Castle off OR85 and OR89 respectively would suggest he acts well at this track and should be able to put his best foot forward. The opposition have nothing of that kind of form in their records and the booking of Tom Queally, who has a 14% strike rate at this track, looks a real positive.
4.05 Haydock
Mont Ros 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, all guaranteed prices) - WON
Rosearrow 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
A really strong handicap, with many of these set to run at Royal Ascot next month and indeed requiring penalties to get in to some of the handicaps there. Basseterre is favourite here and is apparently a group horse, but he didn't show quite enough for me on his return to be interested in him at this kind of price and although the booking of Fallon is interesting given the former champion's fine recent form, the stable aren't setting the world on fire right now and he is overlooked. Volcanic Wind could be anything, but he might not be that much, and punters are only guessing at his true ability on turf if backing him, not something I want to do at 5/1. At a price Mont Ros is selected, with a six length course and distance handicap win in his back form, following an impressive win on his reappearance at Redcar. He is drawn well for a horse who likes to sit prominently and I have plenty of respect for Danny Tudhope. I'm willing to forgive his run at Thirsk and put it down to the bounce factor.
Rosearrow is unproven on turf, but he is a much bigger price at around 16/1 and bigger at the moment. He caught the eye travelling well on a strong pace on his reappearance at Lingfield, and did well to finish fourth given the pace he was chasing. He looked like he needed the run but he has been dropped to a mark of OR85 and looks very well handicapped. His trainer doesn't have the best course record but he did send Tartan Trip up to contest this race two years ago, he eventually finished second to Sam Sharp and the trainer clearly has a good line on what it takes to win the race. the negatives are factored into his price and I feel he is worth supporting given that he has some strong three year old form to his name.
Profit & loss: day: +25.50 / month: +46.00 / year: +53.16
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