7.00 Lingfield Mr. David 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, guaranteed)
An interesting contest with some very good horses on display, despite a field of only nine runners. There is pace on here, with Johnno likely to go forward from stall 1, so I can't see a falsely run affair. Light Burst probably deserves to be favourite but Johnno has been off a long time (as short as 5/1) and Ortac Boy didn't impress despite being well backed on his last two starts (5/1). Mr. David represents a trainer who does well here and the booking of George Baker, who has a 22% strike rate for the trainer in the last five seasons, looks a real pointer. The selection made his seasonal debut in a much hotter race at Kempton a couple of weeks back, and ran ok to a point before fitness told. He was allowed to come home in his own time under tender handling. Blinkers, which he has won in and has posted most of his recent good performances in, are reapplied, and I think the handicapper has been kind in dropping him to a mark of OR84, meaning he can drop in class. He has an excellent piece of all weather form to his name behind Chapter And Verse over this trip, and I think he has been overlooked by lazy compilers and punters today. 16/1 is far too big, I make him a 10/1 shot and he makes plenty of each-way appeal.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -71.10 / year: +17.56
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