2.50 Nottingham
Khefyn 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Add 1pt win @ Betfair SP (Total 3pts win 1pt place)
Not a lot of each-way value here with 15 runners, so despite the price I'm happy enough to weight the stake towards the win part of the bet, taking advantage of Betfair SP for the chance of a bigger payout.
Khefyn represents the Ron Harris yard, whose horses started the flat turf season fairly slowly (with the exception of his two year olds). However, the evidence of the last week suggests they are coming right back to form, with stalwarts Judge 'n' Jury, Prodigality and Secret Witness all running well at York, in addition to Vincentti, a three year old who was denied only by a nose at 33/1. Noverre To Go also went close at Windsor last night, and it is only a matter of time before they get back to winning ways - perhaps Khefyn can be the next horse to win for them. He looks overpriced in a generally poor quality three year old's only sprint. He was hard to catch right as a two year old, but won his maiden at Ffos Llas on good ground, before an impressive six length win on soft ground at Chepstow. He possesses the best speed figure in this field as a result of that Chepstow win, and comes out joint top on Racing Post Ratings too. He was somewhat underwhelming on both starts this year so far, but the stable's turf horses were behind and he did show up well at this track on his seasonal debut before fading. There was more promise nine days later at Bath, and he has had a nice break of a month to get him right in the interim. The handicapper has dropped him 4lb which looks very useful and arguably quite fair, and cheekpieces are applied to help him focus. Luke Morris is riding out of his skin these days and looks the perfect booking, all in all 25/1 looks too big and he will be our only interest of the afternoon.
Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +18.50 / year: +25.66
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