1.45 York Clayton 4pts win @ 6/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)
Kevin Ryan would tend to target this meeting with his better horses and Clayton looks like he remains on the right side of the handicapper, and has a leading form chance in the opener on day one. The selection finished well at Epsom on his seasonal debut in a strong looking handicap, but it was noticeable he didn't handle Epsom's undulations that well and there seemed to be plenty left in the tank at the finish. The return to a flat galloping track should suit him well, and given the right ride by Neil Callan and normal luck in running he should go close to winning. I prefer him over Lahaah and First Mohican who both look underpriced and have question marks against them given recent form, Ruscello would be the danger in my book but is unproven on the ground and at the prices Clayton looks better value although he is shorter.
3.15 York
Lethal Force 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Ladies Are Forever 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
The Cheka 1pt win @ Betfair SP
A cracking sprint which has a history of throwing up shocks. It is anyone's guess where the faster ground will be, or even what the ground will ride like, so it seems prudent to take three against the field who look overpriced and have some sort of form chance. Indeed I'm not keen on anything in the 10/1 or under bracket here and am quite keen to take the principals on.
Lethal Force represents a stable in fine form, whose horses have tended to be ready first time up, including Poetic Dancer who was unlucky not to win for us at Doncaster on Monday. The selection has winning Group 2 form and bundles of speed, it seems a sprint campaign has been mapped out and it is no wonder given how fast he is. The Jubilee at Royal Ascot will be his big target and he is said to have done well from three to four. He won his maiden on good to soft but we are only guessing about the ground and his ability to handle York's unique soil type. He looks an Ascot horse in my view, but at 20/1 he is overpriced here against many horses who have not won at this level in the past. He is drawn in stall 15 and there has to be a chance he'll bag the near side rail and play catch me if you can.
Ladies Are Forever won a pair of Lingfield sprints this spring and is another who is improving fast. The form of those races is working out well and she possesses some really strong speed figures, including the second best figure at this track, 1 point off that of the favourite. She saw that York contest out really well, strong at the finish, and is she transfers her all weather improvement to turf she is a danger to all.
It is hard to resist a saver on The Cheka at a huge price, and hopefully Betfair SP will be kind to us here. He was second in this race last year and is likely to get a good tow into the race. He didn't have a going day last time, his trainer asserting that "he didn't like the wind and the rain", but he is a horse that tends to pop up when least expected and he might just have a good draw in stall 17.
5.00 York Lancelot Du Lac 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Boylesports, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed) - WON
Travelled really well over course and distance last year when finishing second behind Mystery Bet, and struck me at the time as a big weak two year old who would be better for the winter on his back. It is interesting, then, that Ryan Moore is booked on his three year old seasonal debut and given that he is proven at the track and on the ground, he looks worth supporting at odds I make around five points too big. A strong pace will suit him, and I expect him to be buried out the back until late on. This is a difficult race to decipher, but the jockey booking looks really interesting and I am sure there is more to come from the selection this year off a mark of OR83.
Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: -22.90 / year: -15.74
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