One bet for this evening.
9.00 Kempton Bajan Story 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Bajan Story had to work to get the lead from stall 14 last time out and although he had the run of the race from there the form of the race looks strong for the grade and is working out well at a low level. He is entitled to come on again given he is only having his third run back since an absence and his run last time was the first sign of real ability and the first time he had contested a finish. He has been put up only 2lb and Divine Pamina and Lord Of The Dance, whom he split, both look like better horses than the grade they were racing in. The selection drops to 0-60 company tonight, is well handicapped based on that last run, and is better drawn in stall four to take the prominent sit he seemed to enjoy last time out.
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Afternoon Bets:
A really nice winner with Al Khan yesterday, and the 15/2 SP made it all the better.
Some cracking racing today - please note we will most likely have evening bets, released before 5.00pm.
3.30 Newmarket Heavy Metal 3pts each-way @ 18/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 16/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
"I have glanced through our Newmarket runners (6) for tomorrow and, much to my surprise, none are fancied in the Racing Post. I won’t let that get me down. I'm looking for some big runs." - Mark Johnston.
I have to say I think Heavy Metal is a bizarre price this morning for a horse whose form when beating Master Of War looks among the best on offer in this race. His trainer seems to be targeting the meeting and the selection is the only one to have won at this course. He was very well regarded as a two year old, and after disappointing in the Brocklesby racked up three wins including a Group 2 success, and a head defeat giving 3lb to the winner in the Gimcrack. A racing weight of 9-4 is fine here, and his trainer is running him here instead of the Craven - he states that the horse is Guineas bound and he has clearly given plenty of thought to this piece of placement. The selection will enjoy the ground and he holds some of the shorter priced horses on certain 2yo form lines. 16/1+ is far too big, conservatively speaking I'd make him a 10/1 shot.
4.40 Newmarket Alta Lilea 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Another from the Johnston stable, and another interesting piece of placement. The selection was very impressive on debut when winning a Leicester maiden, and was sent to France for a Listed race a couple of weeks later where she disappointed on bad ground. She takes on colts here back on good ground and gets a 5lb allowance. She is entered on the Oaks and her front running style and weight allowance make her of real interest here. It is hard to know how good some of these are and on this occasion I'm choosing potential over form on the course (not something I do often). The stable have won this four times in the last nine years and I find it really intriguing they send a filly to run in it this year. Too big at double figures.
Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: -13.10 / year: +75.56
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