5.50 Kempton Shamaheart 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 13/2 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, independents, guaranteed)
Looked to have one or two problems as a two year old but has been entered in a very winnable race here and with Richard Hannon's string in flying form now, he is one to be interested in with Richard Hughes making the trip from Ascot to ride him. The selection is by Shamardal, whose progeny do well on artificial surfaces and his first start on polytrack at Wolverhampton was promising, with him staying on from a poor position. Today's trip will suit and I don't see any superstars in here - he is drawn well and I think he'll go close to winning.
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Afternoon Bets:
A busy afternoon for us. Four interests all with small stakes, one winner puts us ahead and one place means we'll lose very little for our outlay.
We may have an evening bet, released before 5.00pm.
3.00 Ascot Monsieur Chevalier 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Takes on seven rivals, and is the outsider of the bunch but Ascot as you all know is a "horses for courses" track, and the selection's Golden Jubilee runner up performance behind Society Rock sticks out like a sore thumb in this company. That was a couple of years ago now, but P.J. O'Gorman seems to have gotten the horse back close to his best and he won impressively last time out, putting distance between himself and his rivals when asked. It was a weaker contest than this, but some of his rivals may not be race fit and with the dead eight, he not only makes each-way appeal but there might not be much pace on, meaning there is every chance he will get the mile (has been settling well in his races lately). Kieren Fallon is riding out of his skin in my view and at the prices, the selection makes loads of appeal at a track he loves.
3.55 Pontefract Centred 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, William Hill) - WON
Three year olds don't have a good record in this contest, and as such the older horses have been popular. The sample size is quite small, though, and I find it interesting Sir Michael Stoute sends this well bred filly to Pontefract for a handicap instead of picking up a tinpot maiden and getting a win on the board. He has taken the trouble to book Silvestre De Sousa, and on the visual evidence of her third run at Kempton I think she will improve a bundle for the winter on her back and extra two furlongs. She was only getting going late on in that race, and looked ready to show a lot more only as she hit the finish line. The stable's fillies have been going well and 6/1 looks too big.
4.10 Ascot Snow King 3pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)
John Gosden produced a three year old to challenge for the Golden Jubilee a few years back in Showboating, who reappeared in the Duke Of York that year and finished an excellent second to Prime Defender. He went on to bomb out in the jubilee, but the trainer clearly has a good handle on sprinters and it is really interesting Snow King is started off in this six furlong sprint at a track where he broke his maiden. He retains a Diamond Jubilee entry and a Group 1 sprint campaign seems to be on the agenda. Thinking in those terms, this contest looks winnable and given that the selection is proven at the track and looks exactly the strong travelling, strong finishing type required for the particular test, he is worth backing on seasonal debut here.
4.45 Ascot Good Authority 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 3rd
Good Authority looks overpriced as a similarly strong travelling type who needs holding up off a strong pace to show his best. His recent reappearance will have blown the cobwebs away, and he looks well handicapped on his Leicester form last season where he beat Konstantin in a race that has worked out very well. Fast turf suits him ideally (better than the all weather in hindsight) and you have to ask what price Konstantin would be if he showed up here. Luke Morris takes the ride and I have an inkling, although it is really hard to predict, that he might be drawn in a favourable part of the track with the stalls in the centre.
Profit & loss: day: +16.25 / month: +16.25 / year: +23.41
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