Two selections for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to follow before 5.00pm.
Supporting a OR40 rated 7yo mare who hasn't won on the flat since 2008 might seem like punting suicide, but this trainer Michael Appleby forces you to tear up the rulebook time and again, his record with switchers is phenomenal and it doesn't matter how cheaply they were bought or what price they are. The selection has already had two starts for Appleby, last October. Both were on heavy ground at Yarmouth, she showed little the first time but travelled like a dream on the second occasion before fading right out of contention on ground she has never enjoyed. It is interesting she was then put away, and you would have to imaging connections will have freshened here up and worked whatever magic they tend to work in the mean time. Her sole flat win came over six furlongs at this course, so there are no fears with the surface, and she also has two wins to her name at this time of year - one on seasonal debut, and the other on this exact day last year, on her second start of the year (was well supported first time up, didn't like soft ground at Towcester, won on good to firm next time up). The Appleby stable certainly know how to get horses ready for Southwell, and you would imagine she will be fit and ready to do herself justice. Her draw in stall ten is just about perfect and if she gets away smartly, she can win a race which looks weak bar the exposed course specialist Ace Of Spies.
5.20 Southwell South Kenter 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 18/1 VC Bet guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)
Backing inexperienced hold up horses in Southwell handicaps is a continuation of the "punting suicide" theme mentioned above, but there are real reasons to support South Kenter today. Sire Silver Deputy's progeny have a 25% strike rate at this track, and horses with the "U.S.A." suffix to their breeding are profitable to back blind on their course debuts. Heather Main doesn't send many here at all, one very moderate horse in 2009 showed nothing, but her filly Solvanna has run two nice races here on her trips to Southwell, both over inadequate trips, which would suggest the trainer has some notion of what will act on the surface and what will not, and that she can perhaps train the for the surface to some extent at least. The selection has little to recommend him on form, but he has a huge galloping stride which looked out of place on polytrack last twice (simply couldn't get himself together to quicken at all), saying that he has a high enough cruising speed which will come in handy on this surface. He has been awarded a basement mark of OR48, and in a first time visor (tongue tie removed) with a good 5lb claimer booked from a good draw, he may not be a forlorn hope on his handicap debut. This race is absolutely overloaded with pace, so one of two things will happen: either the selection will lose ground at the start, and get caught in a sandstorm losing all chance, or he will show an ability to handle the surface and travel behind the pacesetters. If the latter unfolds, I would expect him to go close to winning against a largely exposed bunch of rivals
Profit & loss: day: +2.00 / month: +20.50 / year: +27.66
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