Royal Ascot 2013 - Day 2

We got off to a good start yesterday and made a small profit on the day, but we were a little unlucky with My Catch in particular - crab all you want about Jamie Spencer but I think he gave him a fine ride, it doesn't always work out.

On to day two and we have multiple interests.

2:30 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f

Selection: Music Master 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed, 14/1 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, guaranteed)

This usually goes to a horse with form in better company, and although the King Charles II at Newmarket was only a listed contest, it looked a strong renewal and the runner up is worthy of support here. Music Master led under sufferance, and travelled all over a decent field before being joined by Dundonnell and eventually beaten into second. That horse was arguably unlucky not to get closer than sixth in yesterday's St. James Palace stakes, hitting trouble in running. The third, Baltic Knight, and fourth Well Acquainted, have both won well contested races since. I think Music Master is a fair bit better than those who were behind him, given it was only his third career start and the fact that he travelled much the best. He looks a decent price to confirm his progressive profile today in a race that sometimes throws up decent priced winners.

3:05 Duke of Cambridge Stakes (formerly the Windsor Forest Stakes) (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m

Non account bet: Sarkiyla each-way @ 8/1 (Generally)

Not a race I generally get involved in, but for those of you looking for a bet Sarkiyla was unlucky not to win a Group 2 last time out when travelling like the best horse only to challenge slightly too late. She looks a nice price for a trainer who won this in 2008 with Sabana Perdida.

3:45 Prince of Wales´s Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f

Selection: Saint Baudolino 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

Camelot is not taken on lightly today with his stable in blinding form, but I'm not his biggest fan and I think something might mug both he and Al Kazeem this afternoon. French horses have a good record in this race, and the ex-Fabre Saint Baudolino is taken to cause a minor upset. He was really impressive in beating a Group 1 field by three lengths last August at Deauville, and wasn't disgraced in a slowly run race in Meydan this spring. Rewilding won this contest for Godolphin off a similar preparation two years ago, Saint Baudolino travels well and has a good turn of foot, just the type of horse required for this track, and he looks underestimated at the morning prices.

4:25 Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m

Selections:

Educate 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)

Spa's Dancer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)

Generally you want to be drawn middle or high here, so one horse is selected from each group, although that can be a dangerous game and I haven't paid a massive amount of attention to the draw in truth. Age and weight trends are important, but I always think you want a horse who excels in big fields and Educate is a prime example of that horse. His progressive record in big field handicaps is no secret, and apparently this has been his target all season. He is a strong travelling hold up type, again the sort of horse who excels at Ascot, and with Jamie Spencer booked and stall 13 looking fine, he is too big at the prices.

Ryan Moore is booked for Spa's Dancer, which I find interesting given Moore could probably have taken a number of different rides. My mind casts back to 2011 when we backed Julienas to win this race at 18/1, he was more of a galloping sort who had been in good form and had plenty of Sandown form and had a high draw for this race (24 of 28), as Spa's Dancer does (30 of 30). A poor run at this track needs to be forgiven, but his form coming into this race looks really strong and he seems to have come alive since joining James Eustace. He is too big at 25/1.

5:00 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 5f

Selection: Rizeena 4pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, guaranteed, 13/2 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

I was immensely impressed with Rizeena at Sandown last time out, and although she had the advantage of the rail, she lengthened very impressively and was never in serious danger of even being challenged. She has lots of speed but does her best work at the finish, and has a course and distance win to her name already. I've had her in mind for this contest ever since Sandown, and I think she should actually be favourite. You still need a lot of luck to win 24 runner races at Royal Ascot, but I rate her the best of these and as a result backing her at 13/2+ is a no brainer.

5:35 Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m

Non account bet: Hint Of A Tint each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)

Not a race I tend to get involved in, and with 26 three year old fillies lining up I don't suggest you do either! If you're rolling in cash by this stage, a speculative each-way punt on Hint Of A Tint might be the call. She looks progressive for a trainer who knows what it takes to get a filly to win here, and her jockey will be on a high having ridden a winner here yesterday. She is potentially well weighted and ought to run her race.

Profit & loss: day: +15.00 / month: +50.90 / year: +60.56

Royal Ascot 2013 - Day 1

An absolutely barnstorming card of racing for day one of the flat season highlight, and I hope everyone enjoys the week. Close to our thoughts this week will be Sir Henry Cecil, who was unparallelled in the success he enjoyed at this great meeting, and will be sorely missed this week in particular.

We have account bets in four of the six races on day one.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m

Selection: Declaration of War 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Coral, William Hill, guaranteed, 15/2 Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - WON

Sometimes in racing you have to go against every perceived opinion and trend to find a value bet, and as such we open Royal Ascot by supporting Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War. The selection had looked progressive until his Lockinge bomb out, and for my mind one has to take note of his 5/4fav S.P. that day and put some faith in the fact that Ballydoyle aren't fools altogether. They clearly believe they have a Group 1 horse on their hands here, and Aidan's assertion that they learned a lot about him that day is interesting. He looks a highly strung type, who might need the kid gloves treatment in the paddock and at the start this afternoon; no better team to deal with such a horse. As I see it, there are two Group 1 horses in here in the favourite and Elusive Kate, and one potential Group 1 horse in Delcaration Of War. Animal Kingdom has never seen Ascot's undulations and the straight mile will also be unfamiliar, while he is best at the ratings, from a value point of view is must be taken on each-way and we'll put our trust in O'Brien to repeat the feat he pulled off with Haradasun in 2008, who won this contest having been beaten in the Lockinge.

3:05 King´s Stand Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 5f

Advised 06/06/13: Reckless Abandon 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally)

A relatively open looking renewal, and I'm keen to take on the South Africa horse Shea Shea, who was impressive in Dubai, but represents a trainer whose horses have not yet tasted success in top U.K. sprints - J J The Jetplane, unplaced when sent off 5/2 fav for the Golden Jubilee in '09, being a notable failure. Ascot is a very particular track and horses who have experience of its wide expanses, stiff finish and sand based surface are at a definite advantage. In addition, Shea Shea has thrown in the odd poor run and comes into this contest off the back of a break, similar to his first run in Dubai when he bombed out. Although he is said to have settled in well and trained better than he did then, he is not for me at the prices.

Reckless Abandon, for me, is a standout at the prices. A top juvenile, he has been cleverly campaigned by connections who didn't want to try to turn him into a Guineas horse, rather they have let him find his feet and an out and out sprinter and made use of his speed. Three year olds have won this contest twice in the last ten years, and the weight allowance is enough that I'm happy to support him.

His seasonal reappearance at Haydock was full of positives. Racing on the far side which was unfavoured, he finished clear of that group and third overall, showing an uncomplicated, game demeanour and plenty of speed - all under a 4lb Group 1 penalty. I have little doubt that, with a trouble free two weeks between now and the Royal meeting, he will improve plenty for that and with a little bit of luck with the draw and normal luck in running, he should go close for a trainer whose horses do really well at the track. He was more impressive than the bare result when winning the Norfolk over course and distance last year, and I can see him being sent off closer to 9/2 or shorter still. Anything around the 8/1 mark represents excellent value and should be taken, given his trainer has now all but confirmed this race as his target.

3:45 St James´s Palace Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 1m

Non Account Bet: Glory Awaits each-way @ 33/1 (Generally)

A race to savour, and while I'd marginally prefer Magician, we had odds of 8/1 Non Runner No Bet about him versus Dawn Approach at Evens in the Epsom Derby a couple of weeks back only for him to be declared a non runner, so 9/4 versus 13/8 makes little appeal today with the trip favouring Jim Bolger's star. The French and the American's, however, would be bemused at our bookmakers for pricing up the runner up in the English Guineas runner up at 33/1 and the fourth from the same race at 5/1?! You have to laugh sometimes, knowing what we do about form and reputation is one thing, but there has to be some value in supporting Kevin Ryan's charge to sneak into a place. Most bookmakers will pay 1/4 odds, so you have a sporting 33/1 bet alongside an 8/1 place bet on a horse who, given his jockey's preferred style, will probably be ridden for third place. I was sorely tempted to advise this as an account bet, but we're pretty much full up for the day and it is speculative - I do think Glory Awaits may have been advantaged by racing on the best ground in the English Guineas, and Toronado had well documented wind problems. All told, he is well worth a few bob each-way for those attending who wish to have an interest.

4:25 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f

Selection: Championship 3pts win @ 6/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

An open looking renewal, but Richard Hannon's Championship made a really pleasing debut at Newbury, and will have learned a lot from the race. Richard Hughes has picked him as first choice from his retained trainer's vast array of juvenile talent. Hughes asserted in the Racing Post last week that he only decided on Championship after a gallop during that week, which he felt was a potential negative given that in previous years he knew his Coventry horse at Easter. However, I'm not so sure. I've had my eye on one or two of Hannon's 2yos for this meet and I think he might have a particularly good bunch this year - there is certainly strength in depth. Sometimes it doesn't take a superstar to win this, and with the stable having a good record in the race, we'll support him to relatively moderate stakes. 

5:00 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 2m4f

Non account Bet: Big Easy each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)

Not a race I ever read too much into, Pricewise selected Big Easy amongst others, and to my mind it seems a sensible each-way choice for those attending who want to have an interest.

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f

Selections:

My Catch 1pt each-way AND 2pts win My Catch @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 16/1 William Hill guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Sleeper King 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

A race I put quite a bit of time and detailed study into, because there is value to be had looking at the winning SP's, the trends are hard to read, and a lot of video watching is required to get a good handle on the participants. My Catch stuck out a country mile to me, and anyone on at 16/1+ in particular has a good bet on their hands. The selection represents Qatar Racing, who have made a real impression this season, and was purchased at Arqana Breeze Up sales in May for the eye catching sum of €135,000. Trainer David Brown won this race with Frederick Engels in 2011, and the selection's debut for Brown was impressive, albeit he only finished second. He was green and appeared to learn plenty, but showed himself to have a very high cruising speed. In fact, he earned one of the best speed figures on show here that day, and normal improvement will see him right in the mix here. Jamie Spencer rides, and his strike rate of 5/22 23% on juveniles at Ascot over the past five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +20.75 is eye catching. I have weighted our stake in this race towards My Catch, I really fancy him to run well given normal luck in running.

Which means Sleeper King is probably a cert at 16/1! Of the rest, the second selection made plenty of appeal for last year's winning stable and jockey. He needed to show courage to defeat a good juvenile in Justice Day up at Musselburgh, and he looked to my eye to have more speed than that rival. Speed usually wins this, and if you look through the previous winners most of them still ply their trade at five or six furlongs. The American Ogermeister is passed over, I think the European 2yos have caught up a bit since Wesley Ward plundered two of Royal Ascot's juvenile prizes in 2009, and he is rejected on the basis of a debut win where he beat nothing, a potentially difficult draw, and a price which looks over defensive.

Profit & loss: day: +5.00 / month: +35.90 / year: +45.56

Saturday 15th June 2013

A good winner last night and a very good ride from Frankie Dettori.

Some fantastic racing this afternoon, and plenty of racing to watch. Two interests for us.

2.30 Bath Monsieur Blanc 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 17/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Denis Coakley's 2yo's boast a really impressive 50% strike rate at Bath over the course of the last five seasons, with a level stakes profit of +£51.50 to the pound stake. That's a pretty good basis to start any juvenile bet, but there are other reasons I think Monsieur Blanc can win this. His debut run at Windsor was full of promise, he was very keen over six furlongs and didn't settle very well, looking a bit green but with plenty of speed a looking a scopey individual. He was forced out wide on a number of occasions but stuck on well once his chance had gone in the manner of a horse who would be better for the experience. He steps back in trip in an easier looking contest today and should get a nice tow into this from stall 1, with the speedy Captain Ryan in stall 2. Martin Dwyer turns up for the one ride, and if he can simply settle him early on behind the leaders and produce him up the hill, the selection should have every chance of winning. This shrewd outfit backed the horse at Windsor from 16/1 into 10/1 for a stronger race, some support came early doors today and I think he is much bigger than he should be with a couple of potential nursery types and average looking juveniles in opposition.

3.35 Musselburgh Confessional 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Time Easterby's horses are on the verge of hitting top form and with the likes of Ponty Acclaim going close at York yesterday having disappointed earlier this year, and a recent Beverley winner, I am keen to get behind some of the stable's entries in the coming weeks. Confessional didn't get a good ride at Epsom from Silvestre De Sousa. This is a horse who needs to be settled and allowed to find his cruising speed, De Sousa is excellent but he forced the horse to hit top speed at Epsom and it put him right off his stride. There is no point asking a horse to go faster than he can - Danny Tudhope and Ryan Moore gave their mounts plenty of time in the dash, both were detached and they finished 1st and 2nd. Confessional is almost always ready run to his best at this time of year, he has to defy a mark of OR100 today but he likes these downhill tracks and the likely manic pace will help too. He is drawn well in stall 11, and a new combination of headgear may well sharpen him up. He looks overpriced at 20/1 for a stable whose older horses boast an 18% strike rate at this track over the past five years.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +30.90 / year: +40.56

Friday 14th June 2013

One for this evening.

6.50 Goodwood Stormy Paradise 6pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

This looks a fairly poor maiden, but Stormy Paradise sticks out as a potential big improver for a stable who are really beginning to hit form, including with their juveniles. The selection didn't look ready at all on his first racecourse start in a strong maiden at Ascot, but he ran ok despite looking as if it was all too much, too soon for him. He has had a month off since, and I find it interesting this shrewd yard have backed him from 4/1 into 3/1. Sometimes it helps to see what the market thinks, and if this horse has indeed come on for that run I think he should be more like a 2/1 shot in this company. The trainer has a 23% strike rate with juveniles at this track in the last five years and Frankie Dettori looks a significant booking.

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Afternoon bet:

Just wanted to wait and check the ground at York before sending today's selection.

We may have an evening bet, released before 5.00pm.

4.10 York Avon Breeze 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP - N/R

Avon Breeze looks a well handicapped, progressive four year old filly with plenty of speed who should continue to improve and can go close to winning this afternoon. The selection is 1lb better off with Above Standard, based on her running last time, but has 3/4 length to find with that horse. He is not guaranteed to repeat that form, though, and may be best fresh. Avon Breeze may also have a better draw in terms of getting a tow into the race, she will also be suited by any rain that falls (currently raining). George Chaloner is booked to claim 5lb, and I would argue he is good value for that vis a vis Amy Ryan who rode last time out. I really like her chances, not many of these look genuinely progressive and if all goes well I feel she should be in the four at least. The York market tends to throw up some crazy SP's and with the selection currently trading at 14.5, she is well worth an additional two points at the exchange starting price.

Profit & loss: day: +18.00 / month: +40.90 / year: +50.56

Thursday 13th June 2013

El Viento was declared a non runner earlier on.

One for this evening.

7.20 Haydock The Kid 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

Haydock has had a good splash of rain this morning and afternoon, and that combined with watering of the course might make this more testing than it would first appear for these two year olds. Most of these are bred for further anyway, but similar to last night, I don't like the profiles of any of those to have run, nor do I see anything to shout about based on their racecourse performances. Two of these have Derby entries, Chinese Jade and The Kid. Chinese Jade has been weak in the market all day and is entered at Brighton in a few days time over six furlongs, which might suggest three quick runs for a handicap mark for connections renowned for such tactics. The Kid is more interesting for connections whose two year olds are going well, including a 66/1 shot who finished well for second place yesterday, first time out. The stable are in fine form this 70,000GNS yearling has a nice pedigree for seven furlongs. Dascombe made an intriguing comment about him in a recent stable tour:

"I want to give him some experience but he'll be winning in July."

I can only see that as a bit of a deliberate put off, clearly this colt is thought to have a ability and although he lacks experience tonight, the stable are going great guns and from stall 2 with a jockey in the plate who rides this turning track as well as anyone, I really like his chances. Like yesterday, we are taking a chance given this is first time out, but I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility that this goes to a newcomer and given the stable's 23% strike rate with juveniles at Haydock in the last five seasons returning an l.s.p. of +£44.00 to the pound stake, he looks worth backing each-way with the dead eight lining up.

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Afternoon bets:

A nice 10/1 winner last night with Grecian landing the odds and we called it well. I'm looking forward to more interest in juveniles between now and Christmas, they are usually a good source of profit for us and here's hoping this year is no different.

Unsettled weather has some of our Ascot plans on hold. It is unclear what the forecast will be like for next week and as a result I'm inclined to sit and wait and see how things develop. As is usually the case with ante post betting, it could all change at a moment's notice and I'll make sure to give advanced warning where possible.

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet, details before 5.30pm.

2.30 Nottingham Depden 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Has taken a long time to show any sort of ability, but he did improve slightly with racing last year and he may be the sort of horse who needed time to develop and grow, with niggly problems getting in his way. His seasonal debut at Southwell was full of promise, though. He travelled well and ran to the line strongly after perhaps blowing up coming to the final furlong, having travelled widest of all coming into the straight. He got a fairly good run into the race but things didn't entirely go his way and the lack of fitness and the fact that the winner raced away from him probably didn't help. It was probably his best performance to date and, given that he showed similar form on turf last year, he is taken to progress from a basement mark of OR46. He will have to come on in terms of fitness, but he is drawn well to get cover and it is interesting connections have persevered with this half brother to stable star Cheveton, who himself did not race until he was a four year old.

4.10 Nottingham El Viento 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R

Looks a really big price looking at the form of his three runs this season. His good seasonal debut at Southwell was followed by a second to Heerat, who is no doubt Group class. He had good sprinters like Kingsgate Choice, Confessional and Taajub behind that day, and having missed the break it was a good run over a trip which is probably on the sharp side for him. His York run is easily excused, he showed up really well for a long way, but was running right into a headwind that set the entire race up for closers, as evidenced by the quirky Mass Rally winning relatively easily, something he tends to find difficult! El Viento may not be well handicapped but he does seem to be in very good form and perhaps even improving still as a five year old. I can pick negatives in many of these and the likes of Joe Packet and Head Space simply do not deserve to be half the price of the selection on 2013 form. A good draw and the in form stable jockey are the icing on the cake, and I think the price is around five points too big.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +22.90 / year: +32.56

Wednesday 12th June 2013

Two bets for this evening.

6.40 Kempton Grecian 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

From June onwards I start to get involved with two year olds on a more regular basis, and this looks an interesting maiden looking at the market. I wasn't massively impressed with the Hannon trained favourite on his debut at Goodwood, with his stablemate jinking and unseating the race was left in his lap but he didn't really quicken to my mind. 4/7 looks a little short and he seems to be priced up based on his stable rather than his achievements on the course. I can't say I like any of the others to have run, but I note Paul Cole's Grecian has an entry in the Windsor Castle next week and looking at his pedigree there is plenty of speed there. He takes on horses who I think might come into their own over slightly longer distances and although tonight is his first visit to the racecourse, I think he is overpriced based on his pedigree and the interesting booking of the excellent Jim Crowley. He is also drawn well in stall three, and although we will only play to small stakes, I fancy him to outrun this price and perhaps shake up the favourite.

8.40 Kempton Majestic Zafeen 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

(Total 4pts for this bet)

There are lots of negatives for Majestic Zafeen: her stable aren't in great form, and they don't have a good record with horses first time out off a lay off (0-21 over ten years). That said, there are some questionable types in here at short prices (the favourite for one), and Majestic Zafeen has looked a very, very progressive filly on all weather surfaces in her career to date. She travels really well on the surface, and has a good turn of speed when required. I think she is likely the best horse in the race on this polytrack, and although the bet carries risks with it the 16/1 is far too big - I would make her a 15/2 shot. I would hope Luke Morris can tuck her in from a wide draw and get her travelling nicely. She looked physically scopey as a three year old and I expect further improvement in 2013. Whether she is fit enough to win tonight remains to be seen, but I do think she is excellent value at these odds.

Profit & loss: day: +22.40 / month: +29.90 / year: +39.56

Monday 10th June 2013

Just one bet for today.

4.45 Brighton Take A Note 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Totesport, Betfred, William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) 
With Excuse To Linger backed early doors, Take A Note has drifted to a very backable price and looks well worth supporting. The selection represents a trainer, Pat Chamings, who has a 5/26 19% strike rate at Brighton over the last five years with older horses, returning a level stakes profit of +£11.50 to the pound stake. His horses also go well at Goodwood, so his training methods seem to produce horses who can handle downhill tracks and undulations, a positive given Take A Note has not yet run at Brighton. The selection makes his seasonal debut today, but the most interesting stat of all is the trainer's strike rate of 15.6% with his runners returning from an absence over the past ten years, with an actual versus expected value of 1.67, meaning these horses are very much underrated by the market and worth backing. The horse himself is lightly raced and has won three of his seven starts. He is a big, strong son of Singspiel who probably has his best days ahead of him and should improve as a four year old from a mark of OR77. The evidence of his Newbury win over six furlongs would suggest to me that seven furlongs and a stiff finish will be ideal for him this year, and if he handles the downhill section of the course I expect him to finish strongly. Chaming's stable are in winning form, and the trainer's comments suggest he has him ready to win:

“He seems in good form. I have been trying to find the race he has the best chance in and with Jim Crowley available as he rode him when he ran very well all last year. But I have no idea if the track will suit him.”
At the prices I think he is an excellent bet, and we'll play to save most of our stake in the event of him finishing second.


Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +7.50 / year: +17.16

Sunday 9th June 2013

One selection for Sunday.

3.15 Nottingham Borough Boy 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

We have to take a bit of a leap of faith with stable form here, but Borough Boy looks worthy of support to small stakes at a big price this afternoon. He is the stable's second string on prices, but I would suggest he has more scope for improvement than stablemate La Sylphe. The selection was brought along slowly as a two year old, typical of many of the Shaw team. He is a big, scopey horse and showed glimmers of ability on numerous occasions, not least on his only good ground turf start at Newcastle when he was ridden very tenderly and travelled well on the surface, never asked to get into contention. He is related to horses who go best on good ground, Osterhase being by far the most noteworthy, and it is no surprise looking at his action that he was well beaten at Chepstow on soft ground last time out. He showed promise in a first time visor, though, and travelled sweetly enough for his jockey before the soft ground horses left him behind. I think a straight five furlongs should be ideal, and if the visor continues to help him at the stalls (has been slowly away) he has already shown enough to suggest he is better than a mark of OR54. Stall 13/13 might be favourable and he is worth an interest at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +11.50 / year: +21.16

Saturday 8th June 2013

Two selections at Newbury:

7.30 Newbury Orders From Rome 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Orders From Rome was a very talented two year old, but rather lost his way and as far as I'm aware had breathing difficulties at one point which seem to have been sorted out. He has always been thought of as a sprinter, but there have been suggestions in his form over the last year that a step up in trip might benefit him and open new doors for connections, not least when he won at Epsom over a six furlong trip that was run at an absolutely manic pace last year. His latest run at Windsor wasn't bad at all, he was one paced over six furlongs but ran on well in fourth place. This bet is basically based around potential improvement for the step up in trip, there is every chance he won't improve for it but the signs have been there and, partnered by a good 5lb claimer who won on him at Epsom and knows him well, the selection may just outrun his odds.

9.00 Newbury Macchiara 4pts win @ 17/2 (Vc Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Represents a stable who tend to do well with fillies. Macchiara has taken some support already today, and she looks a bit of value here taking on inferior horses off top weight, at a track which might suit her prominent racing style. She had valid excuses last time out having hit her head from the stalls and bled (unclear whether the two were related) and this looks an easier contest than the race she won at Doncaster last summer, defeating the well regarded (but now frustrating) Pearl Nation.It could be argues she has the most scope for improvement of this field, and at odds of 8/1+ she is a fair bet to give the weight away.

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Afternoon bets:

Two for this afternoon, and possible evening bets released before 5.30pm.

2.20 Newmarket Basseterre 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Held up in a slowly run race at Haydock last time out which didn't suit, and after hitting the front he was swamped. His jockey was at pains not to give him a hard race when it became clear his chance had gone, however, and that kindness might just be repaid this afternoon. Charlie Hills talked about this horse as potential group class at the start of the season, and although he has been slow to come to hand there were hints he was coming into his best form last time out. There is scope for progression off OR86 and with the impressive James McDonald in the plate, he looks overpriced at 9/1.

2.55 Newmarket

Gramercy 1pt each-way @ 18/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Cheworee 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

David Simcock tends to leave a bit to work on with his horses returning from absence, but the stable are in such good form (including a winner here yesterday) that it is hard to resist supporting Gramercy from what may be a good draw. He has some really strong form to his name, and a big field over six furlongs arguably brings out the best in him. I find it interesting Richard Fahey has sent him down and, although he looks the owners third choice on jockey bookings, I think he is overpriced.

Cheworee represents the in form David Elsworth. She has a tongue tie on for the first time, with the trainer reporting last time out that she had breathing problems. She looked really progressive when winning at Windsor in April, and although a leap of faith is required, she is another who seems to enjoy running at a strong pace. 20/1 is too big and I think she remains well handicapped off OR85

Profit & loss: day: -18.00 / month: +14.50 / year: +24.16

Friday 7th June 2013

A busier day for us today. We may have evening bets, to be released before 5pm.

3.10 Newmarket Great Hall 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Great Hall was backed at bigger prices this morning, but the 9/2 guaranteed looks worth taking, particularly as he may drift on course. The selection made a pleasing start to his three year old campaign in a strong looking Newmarket maiden, where he finished ahead of Fledged, who reopposes. He appeared to have more gears than the Gosden horse, and Fallon was at pains to ease him when his chance had gone, perhaps down to lack of fitness. He steps up to what looks his optimum trip on breeding this afternoon and the booking of Richard Hughes, with Fallon riding for Cumani, looks a positive. He is a very impressive looking beast physically, and I have an inkling he will be better than a handicapper. He can break his maiden today and go on to better things from here.

3.45 Newmarket

Top Offer 3pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)

Axiom 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Laffan 1pt win @ Betfair SP

It is interesting Roger Charlton has been making negative comments about Top Offer on social media, and on his website. He feels a mark of OR95 might stretch his one time Guineas horse after his absence, during which he has been gelded and had a wind operation. He wasn't sent off at 6/4fav on debut for nothing, though, they always liked Top Offer and although he disappointed as a three year old there were clearly reasons behind that. Charlton's record bringing horses back fresh is very good, and the selection looks to big a price now largely down to those negative comments - the selection was priced up 3/1 and 10/3 last night, and is now 5/1 and 11/2. It is a price I'm very happy to take, because I wouldn't be in the least bt surprised to see Top Offer win handy in this company.

There is value elsewhere in the race, and two stick out as potentially overpriced. With support likely to come for others, they may go off at inflated prices on Betfair so SP is recommended. Axiom has a good record fresh and has come a long way down in the handicap, leaving him well treated. He is a nine year old, but even last year he ran to a high level on seasonal debut. He has one very good piece of course form to his name and with Jamie Spencer booked, connections seem confident he is ready to go first time out.

Laffan has been slightly disappointing, but Kevin Ryan rates him highly and it is interesting Ryan sent Captain Ramius, his Ayr Gold Cup winner, to win over this course and distance in 2011 - beating Axiom, as mentioned above! The selection has yet to find his feet this year but cheekpieces are added and Neil Callan is booked. This galloping track will suit better than Chester to my mind, he will enjoy running against a rail on his left hand side if he gets the lead (has hung left) and he will probably go off at a bigger price than he should for a horse who still looks well handicapped and open to progression.

Profit & loss: day: +13.00 / month: +32.50 / year: +42.16

Thursday 6th June 2013

Just the one for this evening. It has been a fairly quiet week as regards betting opportunities, but there's no harm picking and choosing.

6.50 Sandown Best Be Careful 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

5yo mare trained by Mark Usher, whose stable have had a good year thus far. Mark doesn't send many here but a 3/19 16% strike rate returning a level stakes profit of +£22.50 to the pound over the last five seasons suggests he chooses wisely with those he does. the stable are in good form, with two winners and a close second in the last fortnight, and it interests me that the selection has won at tracks with stiff finishes twice - at Bath and Ascot. Indeed she is a consistent mare, she has finished in the first three on 12 of 21 starts and four of her five wins have come on ground with "firm" in the description. Sandown tonight ought to be right up her street, and she is now 1lb lower than when winning at Ascot last July. She wasn't far behind Rebecca Romero at Bath last September in a race that worked out really well, and she was arguably unlucky not to go close to winning having been completely blocked in her run that day and allowed to come home in her own time. She is 2lb better off today, and is around 16/1, where Rebecca Romero - who hasn't done all that much since - is 3/1 second favourite. The selection has a really good draw in stall three, and should get a tow into the race from Asian Trader in stall 2. If she has come on sufficiently for her seasonal reappearance, she will be very hard to get off the bridle because she's extremely speedy. The caveat is that she is a small horse, and if she doesn't get a good position and endures a bumpy passage, she is likely not to fancy it and probably be allowed to come home in her own time. In that sense we're taking a risk and she doesn't appeal much on an each-way basis other than to save the stake, but the price certainly compensates and, with a good 5lb claimer who has displayed nerves of steel with some of her rides on the other Usher hold up horses (notably Reginald Claude who we've backed a couple of times), it is a risk worth taking.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +19.50 / year: +29.16

Wednesday 5th June 2013

Two selections for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to be released before 6pm.

4.30 Southwell Outbid 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 12/1

Eight runners line up here and apart from the favourite and the selection, there isn't much in the way of talent on show. However, outbid has already won a race and she is bred to appreciate fibresand, being by a sire with a reasonable 11% record and related to couple of fibresand winners, in particular Diminuto who was very good on this surface. She looked a strong filly with some scope during the winter on polytrack, and she might still have had growing to do hence she was put away. Her trainer's representatives have a 21% strike rate at this track over the last five seasons and she really appeals to me as a likely improver for the surface, especially given her strong travelling style and good draw. She comes here off the back of a break, but you'd be in clover if backing all the trainer's runners off the back of a 100+ day absence in the last ten years; he has no problem getting them ready first time up and the market underestimates them as an actual versus expected ratio of 1.28 suggests. I want to have a decent stake on here, and save most of it in the event of a place.

5.30 Southwell John Coffey 4pts win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

Michael Appleby's switchers have to be respected and this horse looks a model to improve under his care. He is well drawn today and the key is that he didn't run as badly as the formbook suggests last time he ran at Southwell. He looks a likely drifter today so make sure to take a guaranteed price. This looks a fairly winnable event and despite early money for the Mark Brisbourne horse I'm happy to take the chance Appleby has improved this from a basement mark since he acquired it, like he has with so many others.

Profit & loss: day: -4.20 / month: +23.50 / year: +33.16

Monday 3rd June 2013

One really interesting handicap at Windsor this evening.

7.30 Windsor

Tioman Legend 3pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

B Fifty Two 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A really strong handicap and I feel Tropics must be taken on carrying a penalty in a better race that doesn't look overloaded with pace. Tioman Legend looks worth backing at the prices from a reasonable looking handicap mark, with his trainer in good form and a decent draw in stall three that may enable him to race on the rail, which could be favoured on tonight's fast ground. He was noted staying on strongly from the rear on seasonal debut at Ascot, having encountered a troubled passage. You would hope he is ridden a little more prominently tonight, he isn't a horse who looks like he absolutely needs holding up and if James Doyle can get him into a good position early on, he may capitalise on any lack of pace.

B Fifty Two is a real tempter at a monster price from a very fair handicap mark of OR91. He struggled as a three year old having raced in Group company as a two year old, but his trainer reports that he was struck into at Kempton last May, and was off injured, and that the wet summer did nothing for his chances thereafter. I think you can pretty much write off the three year old campaign as a result, and his recent reappearance at Ascot offered some encouragement, he ran in the same race as Tioman Legend and showed up well for a long way before fading. His trainer had a winner on Saturday having gone 0-28 in May, and it may be his string are coming into form. The selection likes to race handy and, although he has been unlucky with the draw, if he can break fast and get a good early position he may be no forlorn hope. He posted ratings in the 100's last year and if he puts it altogether he can certainly win off 91. He is just as likely to bomb out, but at 50/1 he is worth a small each-way investment.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +27.70 / year: +37.36

Sunday 2nd June 2013

A good day yesterday with Diescentric landing odds of 16/1, along with a part advised 26/1 on Betfair, which was a very sweet return all in all. I commented on his exchange weakness in yesterday's e-mail and one has to wonder where it came from; he looked a blindingly obvious bet to me. If only it were always that easy!

One selection for today.

4.35 Chantilly (France) Elusivity 3pts win @ Pari-Mutuel return price (PMU) - available with almost all bookmakers on request.

You'll have to call your bookmaker to get this bet on, in most circumstances. 9/1 was available with Ladbrokes last night, which was far too big, but 7/1 was the best price elsewhere. David O'Meara has taken charge of this ex-Meehan sprinter, who showed up really well at York last time out on the complete wrong side of the track, leading 200yds out before being overtaken by those on the favoured side of the track. He holds yesterday's Dash winner Duke Of Firenze on that form, and it is worth noting that O'Meara has done a pretty stunning job with Smoothtalkinrascal, another Meehan cast off, too - the three year old finished second in yesterday's dash from stall 1. I'm going to take a chance to relatively small stakes here that the French haven't cottoned on to the O'Meara (or indeed Tudhope) factor, and that the French tote price returns bigger than it should. To get on, simply call whatever bookmaker you use, and ask for your stake on at Pari-Mutuel price. Almost every bookmaker I have ever used are happy to offer the service, and we could have ourselves a nice payday if the selection obliges.

Profit & loss: day: -3.0 / month: +32.70 / year: +42.36

Saturday 1st June 2013

A fantastic afternoon's action ahead. I'm happy to leave the Derby alone, I like the German horse Chopin but there are too many unknowns to risk a bet and we'll watch the race and enjoy.

3.15 Epsom

Confessional 1pt each-way @ 18/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Mister Manannan 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

With sprint handicaps I always feel the key to getting an angle in on the race is figuring out how the race will be run, and where on the track the winner is likely to come from given the prevailing conditions. It took me a while (sometimes does!) with this race but I eventually came to a conclusion that seems to make good sense. Firstly, they'll go hell for leather, we all know that. But that bit of juice left in the ground from during the week is the deciding factor in my view. I don't think the speedballs will quite last home on good ground, as opposed to good to firm, but I can't quite see our jockey friends factoring that in to their riding style - this will be a full on, balls out dash for early position and to the line. John Best, an excellent reader of the formbook, has taken out his uber quick Stone Of Folca, which more or less confirms there is give left in the ground. I can see the winner taking over in the last hundred yards, so I'm looking for a strong travelling stalker / hold up horse who can last home the extra second or two on genuine good, or perhaps good to soft, ground. 

A middle to high draw looks about right to me and once those decisions are made, Confessional with Silvestre De Sousa booked looks an obvious pick. The selection handles the track well and was second in this two years ago on good to firm, fifth last year when getting no run. If he turns up in the same form, he should get a good tow in from Fair Value who is drawn next door, and with luck in running and that extra juice in the ground can usurp his better fancied stablemate and the other speedballs close home.

The potential joker in the pack is Mister Manannan, trained by Dandy Nicholls who has such a good record in this race and whose string are in decent form again. The selection travelled really strongly at Beverley on his seasonal debut, staying on late to win comfortably, and I think you can forget his two runs since because his trainer is a canny sort who probably wanted to line him up for a crack at this prize. Cheekpieces are applied to this often late breaker, last time he had them on they seemed to focus him and he broke well from the stalls (ultimately disappointed, was out of form). There is scope from his current handicap mark for progression and the booking of Freddy Tylicki looks a positive. Stall 7 is fine for his run style and with three non runners all drawn higher, he has had a bit of luck already this morning. 20/1+ is too big and although he has no Epsom experience, his trainer's record at Goodwood and Epsom tells you all you need to know about his ability to get horses racing economically downhill.

3.45 Doncaster

Diescentric 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - Won @16/1 & 27.0

Poetic Dancer 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

A really good Saturday handicap. Diescentric was noted travelling very strongly on his seasonal debut at Newcastle, on ground he would not have handled, ultimately well beaten by Amazing Amoray. His trainer has booked Paul Hanagan this afternoon, and if he doesn't bounce (my main worry here, 11 days since seasonal debut on soft ground) I expect him to go close to reversing that form. He has only raced at Doncaster once, last year when not getting the breaks behind Cape Classic (hampered) in a race which worked out really well, and he is well handicapped based on his all weather win last winter (turf mark lower, no reason to suspect just yet that he is inferior on turf). His strong travelling hold up style is made for this track and he looks too big - the slight worry is his weakness on the exchanges this afternoon but I can't see any conspiracy developing given the jockey booking.

Poetic Dancer holds Amazing Amoray on a tentative line through Sam Nombulist, and she really should have won here last time. She was in front around three furlongs too soon and I would hope Clive Cox had a word in the young claimer's ear before today's race with instructions to sit for as long as he dare. She is drawn near Crius, and may get a good lead off that horse, we pointed out last time that some of her form is working out really well and she remains well handicapped off 4lb higher. Clive Cox's string continue in winning form and I see no reason to desert her just yet.

Profit & loss: day: +35.70 / month: +35.70 / year: +45.36

Friday 31st May 2013

A fine card of racing at Epsom for Oaks day. 

We may have evening bets, 5.30pm, and price alerts for tomorrow later on.

2.10 Epsom Pilgrim's Rest 4pts win @ 15/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)

An improving colt from the Richard Hannon stable who seemed to be a slow enough learner, but seems to have come to himself now and looks well handicapped based on a recent career second best (by 1lb) performance at Goodwood last time out, behind an improving horse of Michael Appleby's. Connections tried a change of tactics that day, sending him on and trying to make all, and it is to his credit he only found one too good on a track where it is difficult to make all statistically. Epsom is a different story, and given his draw in stall 2 and the assistance of Richard Hughes, as well as his ability to handle rain softened ground and stay a little further than this trip, I think he looks good value here. The handicapper has been kind in putting him up only 1lb, and he can show himself to be a progressive performer by defeating some slightly more exposed types here.

2.45 Epsom 

Producer 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

1pt Reverse Forecast (ie. 1/2 pt each outcome) Producer / Custom Cut

Producer is 4/4 at this track and in the form of his life, his last win has worked out really well and connections will probably have this race as his big target for the season, given how well he goes at the track. He is a joy to watch around Tattenham Corner, we backed him last year at this meeting and the way in which he attacks the downhill run is the mark of a horse who really enjoys this unique track. It is worth a couple of lengths to him at least, and with normal luck in running I think he should win - the trip does not worry me. With Johnny Murtagh booked for Custom Cut, who I fancy to cope well with Epsom, I am inclined to include that rival in a reverse forecast, which will boost any profit if he wins, and net us a decent payday also if he defeats Producer.

4.00 Epsom Liber Nauticus 4pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

This doesn't look the strongest renewal of the Oaks, and with the top two in the market open to question, and both drawn poorly (stall 1 is the coffin box draw in the Oaks, stall 2 not much better), I am inclined to look elsewhere. I think Liber Nauticus is much the best filly in the race anyway, and if she copes with the track and can overcome her relative inexperience, I think she should win. I was greatly impressed with her Musidora win over a trip on the sharp side for her, coming off a crawl of a gallop having been keen early. I'd like to see Ryan Moore keep her on the outside and get plenty of room to run along the three and a half furlong home straight, I think she should win with a trouble free run - I've called them wrong before, but I think this is a really nice filly and inexperience is the only thing that worries me.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +2.50 / year: +9.66

Thursday 30th May 2013

One interest for Thursday afternoon, evening update will be sent before 5.30pm, we may also have price alerts for tomorrow later tonight.

2.30 Brighton Janie Runaway 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) 

Probably a risky bet given the trainer's 0-16 record at the track in the last five years. Saying that, the sample size is too small to draw a definite judgement, and Janie Runaway is the only horse he sends down, with jockey Martin Lane appears to be making the trip specifically to ride her. The selection showed plenty of promise on her debut for Malcolm Saunders, but she also showed up well for a long way in a hot Ascot fillies maiden that is throwing up plenty of winners, ultimately outpaced at the business end and probably a little green and/or unfit on seasonal debut. That was also her run for a handicap mark, and an assessment of OR67 looks quite favourable given her size and scope. There are no world beaters in opposition today, the bet basically depends on how she handles the undulations of this unique course, and how much she has come on for that third run. The trainer suggested in a recent stable tour that they think she needs riding prominently, with the stamina in her pedigree those tactics could pay dividends with this track's stiff finish.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +15.50 / year: +22.66

Wednesday 29th May 2013

There is one decent looking opportunity at Kempton this evening.

6.55 Kempton Jay Bee Blue 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC Bet, 11/1 William Hill, both guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Jay Bee Blue comes out well on ratings here, with his RPR figure joint top with the favourite Duke Of Destiny, and his topspeed figure just 1lb off the favourite. The selection has been a model of consistency since joining Sean Curran last summer, and his record on polytrack is one of gradual progression. He ran a really nice race behind Intomist and Athletic (reopposes) last time out and he is entitled to come on for that run given it was his first of the season. He travelled really well that day, was slightly hampered at one point, and hit the front before fading when his exertions, and perhaps the fact that he challenged on the far rail, took their toll. He could very well bounce tonight but I think that's unlikely given he is only a four year old and didn't seem to take all that much out of himself last week. He has a really good draw in stall 1 here, and I think he'll get a lovely tow into the race from Tenbridge and Shahrazed. They look like the only obvious pace angles (drawn 2 and 4) and there are a lot of hold up performers in here. I don't see the pace being manic, and if the usually excellent James Doyle can take a handy sit and get him into a nice rhythm, I think he might well get first run on the hold up horses and hold on to land double figure odds.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +19.50 / year: +26.66

Tuesday 28th May 2013

Two interests for this afternoon.

0.5pts each-way double on today's selections, take guaranteed prices 9/2 and 6/1 generally available.

3.00 Leicester Pivotal Movement 4pts win @ 5/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

Leicester reports 8mm of rain so far this morning and with the going already changed to good, the useful looking Pivotal Movement looks set to take his chance for Hannon and Hughes. He looked a colt of real promise when winning easily at Windsor on his final two year old start, and I don't think the handicapper has been harsh in awarding a mark of OR78. He obviously has Pythagorean to beat, but I remember that horse getting done by Zamoyski on soft ground at Goodwood and I don't think he'll like it - connections are more or less forced into running him under a penalty before the handicapper takes action for his win last week. He is a fizzy sort of horse, and first time up might have been the day to catch him. I fancy Pivotal Movement to run him close, and we'll put him in an each-way double with our second selection.

4.40 Redcar A J Cook 5pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, 13/2 Paddy Power, both guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Was backed into 11/10fav at Hamilton last time out, but disappointed in only finishing second behind the exposed Script. However, the selection got very little cover during the race and was keen most of the way down the hill, he seemed to hit a flat spot a furlong out before finishing well to almost pull it out of the fire. Today's bigger field looks certain to suit him better, and there is some pace in the race which should help. A draw in stall six should allow Graham Gibbons to bury him in the pack before producing him late on. I think the handicapper has been kind in dropping him four pounds to OR61, and although he is still a maiden, I can't fault his attitude on his performance last time and a strongly run six furlongs on a flat track can see this powerfully built son of Mujadil get off the mark for the stable and jockey who landed the feature race here yesterday.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +24.50 / year: +31.66

Monday 27th May 2013

Two selections for Monday.

4.00 Redcar Eltheeb 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

David O'Meara has his string in blinding form, and they were unlucky not to have at least one winner on Saturday (could have been three on another day). He sends three to contest the Zetland Gold Cup and while War Poet is not passed over easily under Kieren Fallon, Eltheeb's run at York last time was promising enough to make him the pick this afternoon. The selection was quite keen over the mile and a half trip, and I would suggest the drop to ten furlongs here may eke out further improvement. The market looks slightly skewed here, with Eshtibaak probably deserved favourite; saying that he is only as far ahead of his mark as our selection based on his last run and he had a hard enough race. O'Meara's older horses have an 18% strike rate at this track over the past five seasons and are profitable to back blind, at double figure odds Eltheeb looks a good each-way bet.

4.20 Carlisle Solar Spirit 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

It doesn't seem to have been picked up that Solar Spirit has never won on ground with firm in the description, he doesn't want a bog either but he did look a bit ill at ease at Catterick last time out and the rain this morning and afternoon at Carlisle can only improve his chances in my view. He needs to be forgiven that last run, but he may have had an off day given that he was turned out quickly and with Tracey Waggot's stable having probably their best ever year, he is selected at a nice price. His penultimate run at Thirsk came in a hot handicap which has thrown up winners, again that was on good to firm and he may not have enjoyed it - he also made his challenge on the far rail which may not have been favoured. Three weeks off should have freshened him up and at 12/1 he is suggested each-way in a race with pace in it, which should play into his hands.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +34.50 / year: +41.66

Saturday 25th May 2013

A nice winner last night and Silkelly looks progressive, although it was a good piece of placement.

A really busy Saturday. On days like this we're looking for one winner to put us ahead, or some each-way money to cover our outlay. At the prices we play at, that is hard to guarantee but with real quality racing on days like this there tends to be value at good prices - bookmakers have a job pricing up so many races.

There is a small chance of an evening bet, details either way before 5.00pm.

2.10 Haydock Pearl Nation 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

Pearl Nation is a horse who has long been the apple of trainer Brian Baugh's eye, and the form of his win at Doncaster last July has worked out really well, throwing up multiple winners. The selection has struggled in three starts this year, but he was really well backed on his return to turf last time out and he showed up well for a long way before fading like a horse who needed the race. A month has passed since then and some sun on his back will have done him good, indeed Baugh's horses have run much better in recent weeks. If he does indeed come back to form today, a mark of OR79 is definitely one he can win from. A mile on fast ground should be perfect for him, and he is reunited today with Freddy Tylicki, the jockey who rode him at Doncaster last year. 12/1+ is too big and if he rediscovers his form, he will go on to contest hotter races than this in time.

2.30 Chester Modernism 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Went from Mark Johnston to John Ferguson, and to Alan McCabe when he didn't make the grade as a hurdler. McCabe's horses have been running very well just lately and the selection's reappearance at Chester (just his ninth flat start) wasn't as bad as a bare reading of the formbook suggests - he travelled strongly on ground that was too soft for him, trapped wide and eventually hampered when weakening. He is drawn better today and drops in class. As a big horse, he may fare better giving weight away to inferior rivals, and the fast ground he is likely to encounter today will suit much better. Tony Hamilton, having probably his best season ever, takes the ride and if he can get close to the lead from stall six he may be hard to pass. I see no reason why the market appears to have written him off, he is arguably still progressive on fast turf and looks good each-way value at the prices.

2.55 York Ponty Acclaim 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, William Hill, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Has the profile of a filly who tends to follow a bad run with a really good one seemingly out of nowhere, and like many from her stable, who are just hitting form, she may come on a bundle for her first run back. She struggled as a three year old in general but acquitted herself well in top company, from a mark which probably didn't do her any favours. She showed up well on reappearance, but was drawn badly and faded, the Betfair market beforehand suggesting she very much needed the run. The handicapper, however, has been very kind in dropping her to a mark of OR91, and given that she has the best speed figure in this field and has run much better than her current mark over this course and distance, she is hard to desert now at a huge price. It is asking a lot for her to win just nine days after that reappearance, but stranger things have definitely happened and she will get a much better tow into the race from stall 12 here - given that she is a Group 3 winner, connections must feel there is juice in her handicap mark to win a couple of big races, otherwise the paddocks may already have beckoned.

3.50 Haydock Spirit Quartz 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Never runs well at Newmarket, and his Haydock run in this race last year was one of his best. Robert Cowell has always felt this would be his year, and that anything he achieved last year was a bonus. The selection has a very high cruising speed but hasn't always impressed with his finish, but there was evidence in his run last time that that had changed - he ran on strongly once he got out of the dip (which he doesn't like) and pulled away from those drawn on his side (was nowhere near where the action was). The booking of George Baker is a positive one, and if he gets normal luck in running I can see him going very close to beating Sole Power. 9/1 is a decent price and we'll stake this to protect our stake if he runs in the three.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +44.50 / year: +51.66