6.50 Goodwood Stormy Paradise 6pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
This looks a fairly poor maiden, but Stormy Paradise sticks out as a potential big improver for a stable who are really beginning to hit form, including with their juveniles. The selection didn't look ready at all on his first racecourse start in a strong maiden at Ascot, but he ran ok despite looking as if it was all too much, too soon for him. He has had a month off since, and I find it interesting this shrewd yard have backed him from 4/1 into 3/1. Sometimes it helps to see what the market thinks, and if this horse has indeed come on for that run I think he should be more like a 2/1 shot in this company. The trainer has a 23% strike rate with juveniles at this track in the last five years and Frankie Dettori looks a significant booking.
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Afternoon bet:
Just wanted to wait and check the ground at York before sending today's selection.
We may have an evening bet, released before 5.00pm.
4.10 York Avon Breeze 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP - N/R
Avon Breeze looks a well handicapped, progressive four year old filly with plenty of speed who should continue to improve and can go close to winning this afternoon. The selection is 1lb better off with Above Standard, based on her running last time, but has 3/4 length to find with that horse. He is not guaranteed to repeat that form, though, and may be best fresh. Avon Breeze may also have a better draw in terms of getting a tow into the race, she will also be suited by any rain that falls (currently raining). George Chaloner is booked to claim 5lb, and I would argue he is good value for that vis a vis Amy Ryan who rode last time out. I really like her chances, not many of these look genuinely progressive and if all goes well I feel she should be in the four at least. The York market tends to throw up some crazy SP's and with the selection currently trading at 14.5, she is well worth an additional two points at the exchange starting price.
Profit & loss: day: +18.00 / month: +40.90 / year: +50.56
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