A fine card of racing at Epsom for Oaks day.
We may have evening bets, 5.30pm, and price alerts for tomorrow later on.
An improving colt from the Richard Hannon stable who seemed to be a slow enough learner, but seems to have come to himself now and looks well handicapped based on a recent career second best (by 1lb) performance at Goodwood last time out, behind an improving horse of Michael Appleby's. Connections tried a change of tactics that day, sending him on and trying to make all, and it is to his credit he only found one too good on a track where it is difficult to make all statistically. Epsom is a different story, and given his draw in stall 2 and the assistance of Richard Hughes, as well as his ability to handle rain softened ground and stay a little further than this trip, I think he looks good value here. The handicapper has been kind in putting him up only 1lb, and he can show himself to be a progressive performer by defeating some slightly more exposed types here.
2.45 Epsom
Producer 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
1pt Reverse Forecast (ie. 1/2 pt each outcome) Producer / Custom Cut
Producer is 4/4 at this track and in the form of his life, his last win has worked out really well and connections will probably have this race as his big target for the season, given how well he goes at the track. He is a joy to watch around Tattenham Corner, we backed him last year at this meeting and the way in which he attacks the downhill run is the mark of a horse who really enjoys this unique track. It is worth a couple of lengths to him at least, and with normal luck in running I think he should win - the trip does not worry me. With Johnny Murtagh booked for Custom Cut, who I fancy to cope well with Epsom, I am inclined to include that rival in a reverse forecast, which will boost any profit if he wins, and net us a decent payday also if he defeats Producer.
4.00 Epsom Liber Nauticus 4pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)
This doesn't look the strongest renewal of the Oaks, and with the top two in the market open to question, and both drawn poorly (stall 1 is the coffin box draw in the Oaks, stall 2 not much better), I am inclined to look elsewhere. I think Liber Nauticus is much the best filly in the race anyway, and if she copes with the track and can overcome her relative inexperience, I think she should win. I was greatly impressed with her Musidora win over a trip on the sharp side for her, coming off a crawl of a gallop having been keen early. I'd like to see Ryan Moore keep her on the outside and get plenty of room to run along the three and a half furlong home straight, I think she should win with a trouble free run - I've called them wrong before, but I think this is a really nice filly and inexperience is the only thing that worries me.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +2.50 / year: +9.66
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