3.10 Newmarket Great Hall 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Great Hall was backed at bigger prices this morning, but the 9/2 guaranteed looks worth taking, particularly as he may drift on course. The selection made a pleasing start to his three year old campaign in a strong looking Newmarket maiden, where he finished ahead of Fledged, who reopposes. He appeared to have more gears than the Gosden horse, and Fallon was at pains to ease him when his chance had gone, perhaps down to lack of fitness. He steps up to what looks his optimum trip on breeding this afternoon and the booking of Richard Hughes, with Fallon riding for Cumani, looks a positive. He is a very impressive looking beast physically, and I have an inkling he will be better than a handicapper. He can break his maiden today and go on to better things from here.
3.45 Newmarket
Top Offer 3pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)
Axiom 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Laffan 1pt win @ Betfair SP
It is interesting Roger Charlton has been making negative comments about Top Offer on social media, and on his website. He feels a mark of OR95 might stretch his one time Guineas horse after his absence, during which he has been gelded and had a wind operation. He wasn't sent off at 6/4fav on debut for nothing, though, they always liked Top Offer and although he disappointed as a three year old there were clearly reasons behind that. Charlton's record bringing horses back fresh is very good, and the selection looks to big a price now largely down to those negative comments - the selection was priced up 3/1 and 10/3 last night, and is now 5/1 and 11/2. It is a price I'm very happy to take, because I wouldn't be in the least bt surprised to see Top Offer win handy in this company.
There is value elsewhere in the race, and two stick out as potentially overpriced. With support likely to come for others, they may go off at inflated prices on Betfair so SP is recommended. Axiom has a good record fresh and has come a long way down in the handicap, leaving him well treated. He is a nine year old, but even last year he ran to a high level on seasonal debut. He has one very good piece of course form to his name and with Jamie Spencer booked, connections seem confident he is ready to go first time out.
Laffan has been slightly disappointing, but Kevin Ryan rates him highly and it is interesting Ryan sent Captain Ramius, his Ayr Gold Cup winner, to win over this course and distance in 2011 - beating Axiom, as mentioned above! The selection has yet to find his feet this year but cheekpieces are added and Neil Callan is booked. This galloping track will suit better than Chester to my mind, he will enjoy running against a rail on his left hand side if he gets the lead (has hung left) and he will probably go off at a bigger price than he should for a horse who still looks well handicapped and open to progression.
Profit & loss: day: +13.00 / month: +32.50 / year: +42.16
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