Just one bet for today.
4.45 Brighton Take A Note 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Totesport, Betfred, William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
With Excuse To Linger backed early doors, Take A Note has drifted to a very backable price and looks well worth supporting. The selection represents a trainer, Pat Chamings, who has a 5/26 19% strike rate at Brighton over the last five years with older horses, returning a level stakes profit of +£11.50 to the pound stake. His horses also go well at Goodwood, so his training methods seem to produce horses who can handle downhill tracks and undulations, a positive given Take A Note has not yet run at Brighton. The selection makes his seasonal debut today, but the most interesting stat of all is the trainer's strike rate of 15.6% with his runners returning from an absence over the past ten years, with an actual versus expected value of 1.67, meaning these horses are very much underrated by the market and worth backing. The horse himself is lightly raced and has won three of his seven starts. He is a big, strong son of Singspiel who probably has his best days ahead of him and should improve as a four year old from a mark of OR77. The evidence of his Newbury win over six furlongs would suggest to me that seven furlongs and a stiff finish will be ideal for him this year, and if he handles the downhill section of the course I expect him to finish strongly. Chaming's stable are in winning form, and the trainer's comments suggest he has him ready to win:
“He seems in good form. I have been trying to find the race he has the best chance in and with Jim Crowley available as he rode him when he ran very well all last year. But I have no idea if the track will suit him.”
At the prices I think he is an excellent bet, and we'll play to save most of our stake in the event of him finishing second.
Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +7.50 / year: +17.16
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