7.30 Windsor
Tioman Legend 3pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)
B Fifty Two 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A really strong handicap and I feel Tropics must be taken on carrying a penalty in a better race that doesn't look overloaded with pace. Tioman Legend looks worth backing at the prices from a reasonable looking handicap mark, with his trainer in good form and a decent draw in stall three that may enable him to race on the rail, which could be favoured on tonight's fast ground. He was noted staying on strongly from the rear on seasonal debut at Ascot, having encountered a troubled passage. You would hope he is ridden a little more prominently tonight, he isn't a horse who looks like he absolutely needs holding up and if James Doyle can get him into a good position early on, he may capitalise on any lack of pace.
B Fifty Two is a real tempter at a monster price from a very fair handicap mark of OR91. He struggled as a three year old having raced in Group company as a two year old, but his trainer reports that he was struck into at Kempton last May, and was off injured, and that the wet summer did nothing for his chances thereafter. I think you can pretty much write off the three year old campaign as a result, and his recent reappearance at Ascot offered some encouragement, he ran in the same race as Tioman Legend and showed up well for a long way before fading. His trainer had a winner on Saturday having gone 0-28 in May, and it may be his string are coming into form. The selection likes to race handy and, although he has been unlucky with the draw, if he can break fast and get a good early position he may be no forlorn hope. He posted ratings in the 100's last year and if he puts it altogether he can certainly win off 91. He is just as likely to bomb out, but at 50/1 he is worth a small each-way investment.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +27.70 / year: +37.36
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