Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Royal Ascot 2013 - Day 2

We got off to a good start yesterday and made a small profit on the day, but we were a little unlucky with My Catch in particular - crab all you want about Jamie Spencer but I think he gave him a fine ride, it doesn't always work out.

On to day two and we have multiple interests.

2:30 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f

Selection: Music Master 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed, 14/1 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, guaranteed)

This usually goes to a horse with form in better company, and although the King Charles II at Newmarket was only a listed contest, it looked a strong renewal and the runner up is worthy of support here. Music Master led under sufferance, and travelled all over a decent field before being joined by Dundonnell and eventually beaten into second. That horse was arguably unlucky not to get closer than sixth in yesterday's St. James Palace stakes, hitting trouble in running. The third, Baltic Knight, and fourth Well Acquainted, have both won well contested races since. I think Music Master is a fair bit better than those who were behind him, given it was only his third career start and the fact that he travelled much the best. He looks a decent price to confirm his progressive profile today in a race that sometimes throws up decent priced winners.

3:05 Duke of Cambridge Stakes (formerly the Windsor Forest Stakes) (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m

Non account bet: Sarkiyla each-way @ 8/1 (Generally)

Not a race I generally get involved in, but for those of you looking for a bet Sarkiyla was unlucky not to win a Group 2 last time out when travelling like the best horse only to challenge slightly too late. She looks a nice price for a trainer who won this in 2008 with Sabana Perdida.

3:45 Prince of Wales´s Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f

Selection: Saint Baudolino 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

Camelot is not taken on lightly today with his stable in blinding form, but I'm not his biggest fan and I think something might mug both he and Al Kazeem this afternoon. French horses have a good record in this race, and the ex-Fabre Saint Baudolino is taken to cause a minor upset. He was really impressive in beating a Group 1 field by three lengths last August at Deauville, and wasn't disgraced in a slowly run race in Meydan this spring. Rewilding won this contest for Godolphin off a similar preparation two years ago, Saint Baudolino travels well and has a good turn of foot, just the type of horse required for this track, and he looks underestimated at the morning prices.

4:25 Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m

Selections:

Educate 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)
Spa's Dancer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)

Generally you want to be drawn middle or high here, so one horse is selected from each group, although that can be a dangerous game and I haven't paid a massive amount of attention to the draw in truth. Age and weight trends are important, but I always think you want a horse who excels in big fields and Educate is a prime example of that horse. His progressive record in big field handicaps is no secret, and apparently this has been his target all season. He is a strong travelling hold up type, again the sort of horse who excels at Ascot, and with Jamie Spencer booked and stall 13 looking fine, he is too big at the prices.

Ryan Moore is booked for Spa's Dancer, which I find interesting given Moore could probably have taken a number of different rides. My mind casts back to 2011 when we backed Julienas to win this race at 18/1, he was more of a galloping sort who had been in good form and had plenty of Sandown form and had a high draw for this race (24 of 28), as Spa's Dancer does (30 of 30). A poor run at this track needs to be forgiven, but his form coming into this race looks really strong and he seems to have come alive since joining James Eustace. He is too big at 25/1.

5:00 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 5f

Selection: Rizeena 4pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, guaranteed, 13/2 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

I was immensely impressed with Rizeena at Sandown last time out, and although she had the advantage of the rail, she lengthened very impressively and was never in serious danger of even being challenged. She has lots of speed but does her best work at the finish, and has a course and distance win to her name already. I've had her in mind for this contest ever since Sandown, and I think she should actually be favourite. You still need a lot of luck to win 24 runner races at Royal Ascot, but I rate her the best of these and as a result backing her at 13/2+ is a no brainer.

5:35 Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m

Non account bet: Hint Of A Tint each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)

Not a race I tend to get involved in, and with 26 three year old fillies lining up I don't suggest you do either! If you're rolling in cash by this stage, a speculative each-way punt on Hint Of A Tint might be the call. She looks progressive for a trainer who knows what it takes to get a filly to win here, and her jockey will be on a high having ridden a winner here yesterday. She is potentially well weighted and ought to run her race.


Profit & loss: day: +15.00 / month: +50.90 / year: +60.56

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