Royal Ascot 2013 - Day 1

An absolutely barnstorming card of racing for day one of the flat season highlight, and I hope everyone enjoys the week. Close to our thoughts this week will be Sir Henry Cecil, who was unparallelled in the success he enjoyed at this great meeting, and will be sorely missed this week in particular.

We have account bets in four of the six races on day one.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m

Selection: Declaration of War 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Coral, William Hill, guaranteed, 15/2 Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - WON

Sometimes in racing you have to go against every perceived opinion and trend to find a value bet, and as such we open Royal Ascot by supporting Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War. The selection had looked progressive until his Lockinge bomb out, and for my mind one has to take note of his 5/4fav S.P. that day and put some faith in the fact that Ballydoyle aren't fools altogether. They clearly believe they have a Group 1 horse on their hands here, and Aidan's assertion that they learned a lot about him that day is interesting. He looks a highly strung type, who might need the kid gloves treatment in the paddock and at the start this afternoon; no better team to deal with such a horse. As I see it, there are two Group 1 horses in here in the favourite and Elusive Kate, and one potential Group 1 horse in Delcaration Of War. Animal Kingdom has never seen Ascot's undulations and the straight mile will also be unfamiliar, while he is best at the ratings, from a value point of view is must be taken on each-way and we'll put our trust in O'Brien to repeat the feat he pulled off with Haradasun in 2008, who won this contest having been beaten in the Lockinge.

3:05 King´s Stand Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 5f

Advised 06/06/13: Reckless Abandon 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally)

A relatively open looking renewal, and I'm keen to take on the South Africa horse Shea Shea, who was impressive in Dubai, but represents a trainer whose horses have not yet tasted success in top U.K. sprints - J J The Jetplane, unplaced when sent off 5/2 fav for the Golden Jubilee in '09, being a notable failure. Ascot is a very particular track and horses who have experience of its wide expanses, stiff finish and sand based surface are at a definite advantage. In addition, Shea Shea has thrown in the odd poor run and comes into this contest off the back of a break, similar to his first run in Dubai when he bombed out. Although he is said to have settled in well and trained better than he did then, he is not for me at the prices.

Reckless Abandon, for me, is a standout at the prices. A top juvenile, he has been cleverly campaigned by connections who didn't want to try to turn him into a Guineas horse, rather they have let him find his feet and an out and out sprinter and made use of his speed. Three year olds have won this contest twice in the last ten years, and the weight allowance is enough that I'm happy to support him.

His seasonal reappearance at Haydock was full of positives. Racing on the far side which was unfavoured, he finished clear of that group and third overall, showing an uncomplicated, game demeanour and plenty of speed - all under a 4lb Group 1 penalty. I have little doubt that, with a trouble free two weeks between now and the Royal meeting, he will improve plenty for that and with a little bit of luck with the draw and normal luck in running, he should go close for a trainer whose horses do really well at the track. He was more impressive than the bare result when winning the Norfolk over course and distance last year, and I can see him being sent off closer to 9/2 or shorter still. Anything around the 8/1 mark represents excellent value and should be taken, given his trainer has now all but confirmed this race as his target.

3:45 St James´s Palace Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 1m

Non Account Bet: Glory Awaits each-way @ 33/1 (Generally)

A race to savour, and while I'd marginally prefer Magician, we had odds of 8/1 Non Runner No Bet about him versus Dawn Approach at Evens in the Epsom Derby a couple of weeks back only for him to be declared a non runner, so 9/4 versus 13/8 makes little appeal today with the trip favouring Jim Bolger's star. The French and the American's, however, would be bemused at our bookmakers for pricing up the runner up in the English Guineas runner up at 33/1 and the fourth from the same race at 5/1?! You have to laugh sometimes, knowing what we do about form and reputation is one thing, but there has to be some value in supporting Kevin Ryan's charge to sneak into a place. Most bookmakers will pay 1/4 odds, so you have a sporting 33/1 bet alongside an 8/1 place bet on a horse who, given his jockey's preferred style, will probably be ridden for third place. I was sorely tempted to advise this as an account bet, but we're pretty much full up for the day and it is speculative - I do think Glory Awaits may have been advantaged by racing on the best ground in the English Guineas, and Toronado had well documented wind problems. All told, he is well worth a few bob each-way for those attending who wish to have an interest.

4:25 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f

Selection: Championship 3pts win @ 6/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

An open looking renewal, but Richard Hannon's Championship made a really pleasing debut at Newbury, and will have learned a lot from the race. Richard Hughes has picked him as first choice from his retained trainer's vast array of juvenile talent. Hughes asserted in the Racing Post last week that he only decided on Championship after a gallop during that week, which he felt was a potential negative given that in previous years he knew his Coventry horse at Easter. However, I'm not so sure. I've had my eye on one or two of Hannon's 2yos for this meet and I think he might have a particularly good bunch this year - there is certainly strength in depth. Sometimes it doesn't take a superstar to win this, and with the stable having a good record in the race, we'll support him to relatively moderate stakes. 

5:00 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 2m4f

Non account Bet: Big Easy each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)

Not a race I ever read too much into, Pricewise selected Big Easy amongst others, and to my mind it seems a sensible each-way choice for those attending who want to have an interest.

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f

Selections:

My Catch 1pt each-way AND 2pts win My Catch @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 16/1 William Hill guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Sleeper King 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

A race I put quite a bit of time and detailed study into, because there is value to be had looking at the winning SP's, the trends are hard to read, and a lot of video watching is required to get a good handle on the participants. My Catch stuck out a country mile to me, and anyone on at 16/1+ in particular has a good bet on their hands. The selection represents Qatar Racing, who have made a real impression this season, and was purchased at Arqana Breeze Up sales in May for the eye catching sum of €135,000. Trainer David Brown won this race with Frederick Engels in 2011, and the selection's debut for Brown was impressive, albeit he only finished second. He was green and appeared to learn plenty, but showed himself to have a very high cruising speed. In fact, he earned one of the best speed figures on show here that day, and normal improvement will see him right in the mix here. Jamie Spencer rides, and his strike rate of 5/22 23% on juveniles at Ascot over the past five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +20.75 is eye catching. I have weighted our stake in this race towards My Catch, I really fancy him to run well given normal luck in running.

Which means Sleeper King is probably a cert at 16/1! Of the rest, the second selection made plenty of appeal for last year's winning stable and jockey. He needed to show courage to defeat a good juvenile in Justice Day up at Musselburgh, and he looked to my eye to have more speed than that rival. Speed usually wins this, and if you look through the previous winners most of them still ply their trade at five or six furlongs. The American Ogermeister is passed over, I think the European 2yos have caught up a bit since Wesley Ward plundered two of Royal Ascot's juvenile prizes in 2009, and he is rejected on the basis of a debut win where he beat nothing, a potentially difficult draw, and a price which looks over defensive.

Profit & loss: day: +5.00 / month: +35.90 / year: +45.56