A good winner last night and a very good ride from Frankie Dettori.
2.30 Bath Monsieur Blanc 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 17/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)
Denis Coakley's 2yo's boast a really impressive 50% strike rate at Bath over the course of the last five seasons, with a level stakes profit of +£51.50 to the pound stake. That's a pretty good basis to start any juvenile bet, but there are other reasons I think Monsieur Blanc can win this. His debut run at Windsor was full of promise, he was very keen over six furlongs and didn't settle very well, looking a bit green but with plenty of speed a looking a scopey individual. He was forced out wide on a number of occasions but stuck on well once his chance had gone in the manner of a horse who would be better for the experience. He steps back in trip in an easier looking contest today and should get a nice tow into this from stall 1, with the speedy Captain Ryan in stall 2. Martin Dwyer turns up for the one ride, and if he can simply settle him early on behind the leaders and produce him up the hill, the selection should have every chance of winning. This shrewd outfit backed the horse at Windsor from 16/1 into 10/1 for a stronger race, some support came early doors today and I think he is much bigger than he should be with a couple of potential nursery types and average looking juveniles in opposition.
3.35 Musselburgh Confessional 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Time Easterby's horses are on the verge of hitting top form and with the likes of Ponty Acclaim going close at York yesterday having disappointed earlier this year, and a recent Beverley winner, I am keen to get behind some of the stable's entries in the coming weeks. Confessional didn't get a good ride at Epsom from Silvestre De Sousa. This is a horse who needs to be settled and allowed to find his cruising speed, De Sousa is excellent but he forced the horse to hit top speed at Epsom and it put him right off his stride. There is no point asking a horse to go faster than he can - Danny Tudhope and Ryan Moore gave their mounts plenty of time in the dash, both were detached and they finished 1st and 2nd. Confessional is almost always ready run to his best at this time of year, he has to defy a mark of OR100 today but he likes these downhill tracks and the likely manic pace will help too. He is drawn well in stall 11, and a new combination of headgear may well sharpen him up. He looks overpriced at 20/1 for a stable whose older horses boast an 18% strike rate at this track over the past five years.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +30.90 / year: +40.56
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