A fantastic afternoon's action ahead. I'm happy to leave the Derby alone, I like the German horse Chopin but there are too many unknowns to risk a bet and we'll watch the race and enjoy.
Confessional 1pt each-way @ 18/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Mister Manannan 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
With sprint handicaps I always feel the key to getting an angle in on the race is figuring out how the race will be run, and where on the track the winner is likely to come from given the prevailing conditions. It took me a while (sometimes does!) with this race but I eventually came to a conclusion that seems to make good sense. Firstly, they'll go hell for leather, we all know that. But that bit of juice left in the ground from during the week is the deciding factor in my view. I don't think the speedballs will quite last home on good ground, as opposed to good to firm, but I can't quite see our jockey friends factoring that in to their riding style - this will be a full on, balls out dash for early position and to the line. John Best, an excellent reader of the formbook, has taken out his uber quick Stone Of Folca, which more or less confirms there is give left in the ground. I can see the winner taking over in the last hundred yards, so I'm looking for a strong travelling stalker / hold up horse who can last home the extra second or two on genuine good, or perhaps good to soft, ground.
A middle to high draw looks about right to me and once those decisions are made, Confessional with Silvestre De Sousa booked looks an obvious pick. The selection handles the track well and was second in this two years ago on good to firm, fifth last year when getting no run. If he turns up in the same form, he should get a good tow in from Fair Value who is drawn next door, and with luck in running and that extra juice in the ground can usurp his better fancied stablemate and the other speedballs close home.
The potential joker in the pack is Mister Manannan, trained by Dandy Nicholls who has such a good record in this race and whose string are in decent form again. The selection travelled really strongly at Beverley on his seasonal debut, staying on late to win comfortably, and I think you can forget his two runs since because his trainer is a canny sort who probably wanted to line him up for a crack at this prize. Cheekpieces are applied to this often late breaker, last time he had them on they seemed to focus him and he broke well from the stalls (ultimately disappointed, was out of form). There is scope from his current handicap mark for progression and the booking of Freddy Tylicki looks a positive. Stall 7 is fine for his run style and with three non runners all drawn higher, he has had a bit of luck already this morning. 20/1+ is too big and although he has no Epsom experience, his trainer's record at Goodwood and Epsom tells you all you need to know about his ability to get horses racing economically downhill.
3.45 Doncaster
Diescentric 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - Won @16/1 & 27.0
Poetic Dancer 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
A really good Saturday handicap. Diescentric was noted travelling very strongly on his seasonal debut at Newcastle, on ground he would not have handled, ultimately well beaten by Amazing Amoray. His trainer has booked Paul Hanagan this afternoon, and if he doesn't bounce (my main worry here, 11 days since seasonal debut on soft ground) I expect him to go close to reversing that form. He has only raced at Doncaster once, last year when not getting the breaks behind Cape Classic (hampered) in a race which worked out really well, and he is well handicapped based on his all weather win last winter (turf mark lower, no reason to suspect just yet that he is inferior on turf). His strong travelling hold up style is made for this track and he looks too big - the slight worry is his weakness on the exchanges this afternoon but I can't see any conspiracy developing given the jockey booking.
Poetic Dancer holds Amazing Amoray on a tentative line through Sam Nombulist, and she really should have won here last time. She was in front around three furlongs too soon and I would hope Clive Cox had a word in the young claimer's ear before today's race with instructions to sit for as long as he dare. She is drawn near Crius, and may get a good lead off that horse, we pointed out last time that some of her form is working out really well and she remains well handicapped off 4lb higher. Clive Cox's string continue in winning form and I see no reason to desert her just yet.
Profit & loss: day: +35.70 / month: +35.70 / year: +45.36
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