A really busy Saturday. On days like this we're looking for one winner to put us ahead, or some each-way money to cover our outlay. At the prices we play at, that is hard to guarantee but with real quality racing on days like this there tends to be value at good prices - bookmakers have a job pricing up so many races.
There is a small chance of an evening bet, details either way before 5.00pm.
2.10 Haydock Pearl Nation 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)
Pearl Nation is a horse who has long been the apple of trainer Brian Baugh's eye, and the form of his win at Doncaster last July has worked out really well, throwing up multiple winners. The selection has struggled in three starts this year, but he was really well backed on his return to turf last time out and he showed up well for a long way before fading like a horse who needed the race. A month has passed since then and some sun on his back will have done him good, indeed Baugh's horses have run much better in recent weeks. If he does indeed come back to form today, a mark of OR79 is definitely one he can win from. A mile on fast ground should be perfect for him, and he is reunited today with Freddy Tylicki, the jockey who rode him at Doncaster last year. 12/1+ is too big and if he rediscovers his form, he will go on to contest hotter races than this in time.
2.30 Chester Modernism 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.
Went from Mark Johnston to John Ferguson, and to Alan McCabe when he didn't make the grade as a hurdler. McCabe's horses have been running very well just lately and the selection's reappearance at Chester (just his ninth flat start) wasn't as bad as a bare reading of the formbook suggests - he travelled strongly on ground that was too soft for him, trapped wide and eventually hampered when weakening. He is drawn better today and drops in class. As a big horse, he may fare better giving weight away to inferior rivals, and the fast ground he is likely to encounter today will suit much better. Tony Hamilton, having probably his best season ever, takes the ride and if he can get close to the lead from stall six he may be hard to pass. I see no reason why the market appears to have written him off, he is arguably still progressive on fast turf and looks good each-way value at the prices.
2.55 York Ponty Acclaim 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, William Hill, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.
Has the profile of a filly who tends to follow a bad run with a really good one seemingly out of nowhere, and like many from her stable, who are just hitting form, she may come on a bundle for her first run back. She struggled as a three year old in general but acquitted herself well in top company, from a mark which probably didn't do her any favours. She showed up well on reappearance, but was drawn badly and faded, the Betfair market beforehand suggesting she very much needed the run. The handicapper, however, has been very kind in dropping her to a mark of OR91, and given that she has the best speed figure in this field and has run much better than her current mark over this course and distance, she is hard to desert now at a huge price. It is asking a lot for her to win just nine days after that reappearance, but stranger things have definitely happened and she will get a much better tow into the race from stall 12 here - given that she is a Group 3 winner, connections must feel there is juice in her handicap mark to win a couple of big races, otherwise the paddocks may already have beckoned.
3.50 Haydock Spirit Quartz 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Never runs well at Newmarket, and his Haydock run in this race last year was one of his best. Robert Cowell has always felt this would be his year, and that anything he achieved last year was a bonus. The selection has a very high cruising speed but hasn't always impressed with his finish, but there was evidence in his run last time that that had changed - he ran on strongly once he got out of the dip (which he doesn't like) and pulled away from those drawn on his side (was nowhere near where the action was). The booking of George Baker is a positive one, and if he gets normal luck in running I can see him going very close to beating Sole Power. 9/1 is a decent price and we'll stake this to protect our stake if he runs in the three.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +44.50 / year: +51.66
No comments:
Post a Comment