Two selections at Newbury:
7.30 Newbury Orders From Rome 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Orders From Rome was a very talented two year old, but rather lost his way and as far as I'm aware had breathing difficulties at one point which seem to have been sorted out. He has always been thought of as a sprinter, but there have been suggestions in his form over the last year that a step up in trip might benefit him and open new doors for connections, not least when he won at Epsom over a six furlong trip that was run at an absolutely manic pace last year. His latest run at Windsor wasn't bad at all, he was one paced over six furlongs but ran on well in fourth place. This bet is basically based around potential improvement for the step up in trip, there is every chance he won't improve for it but the signs have been there and, partnered by a good 5lb claimer who won on him at Epsom and knows him well, the selection may just outrun his odds.
9.00 Newbury Macchiara 4pts win @ 17/2 (Vc Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)
Represents a stable who tend to do well with fillies. Macchiara has taken some support already today, and she looks a bit of value here taking on inferior horses off top weight, at a track which might suit her prominent racing style. She had valid excuses last time out having hit her head from the stalls and bled (unclear whether the two were related) and this looks an easier contest than the race she won at Doncaster last summer, defeating the well regarded (but now frustrating) Pearl Nation.It could be argues she has the most scope for improvement of this field, and at odds of 8/1+ she is a fair bet to give the weight away.
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Afternoon bets:
Two for this afternoon, and possible evening bets released before 5.30pm.
2.20 Newmarket Basseterre 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Held up in a slowly run race at Haydock last time out which didn't suit, and after hitting the front he was swamped. His jockey was at pains not to give him a hard race when it became clear his chance had gone, however, and that kindness might just be repaid this afternoon. Charlie Hills talked about this horse as potential group class at the start of the season, and although he has been slow to come to hand there were hints he was coming into his best form last time out. There is scope for progression off OR86 and with the impressive James McDonald in the plate, he looks overpriced at 9/1.
2.55 Newmarket
Gramercy 1pt each-way @ 18/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Cheworee 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
David Simcock tends to leave a bit to work on with his horses returning from absence, but the stable are in such good form (including a winner here yesterday) that it is hard to resist supporting Gramercy from what may be a good draw. He has some really strong form to his name, and a big field over six furlongs arguably brings out the best in him. I find it interesting Richard Fahey has sent him down and, although he looks the owners third choice on jockey bookings, I think he is overpriced.
Cheworee represents the in form David Elsworth. She has a tongue tie on for the first time, with the trainer reporting last time out that she had breathing problems. She looked really progressive when winning at Windsor in April, and although a leap of faith is required, she is another who seems to enjoy running at a strong pace. 20/1 is too big and I think she remains well handicapped off OR85
Profit & loss: day: -18.00 / month: +14.50 / year: +24.16
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