One for this evening.
7.20 Haydock The Kid 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)
Haydock has had a good splash of rain this morning and afternoon, and that combined with watering of the course might make this more testing than it would first appear for these two year olds. Most of these are bred for further anyway, but similar to last night, I don't like the profiles of any of those to have run, nor do I see anything to shout about based on their racecourse performances. Two of these have Derby entries, Chinese Jade and The Kid. Chinese Jade has been weak in the market all day and is entered at Brighton in a few days time over six furlongs, which might suggest three quick runs for a handicap mark for connections renowned for such tactics. The Kid is more interesting for connections whose two year olds are going well, including a 66/1 shot who finished well for second place yesterday, first time out. The stable are in fine form this 70,000GNS yearling has a nice pedigree for seven furlongs. Dascombe made an intriguing comment about him in a recent stable tour:
"I want to give him some experience but he'll be winning in July."
I can only see that as a bit of a deliberate put off, clearly this colt is thought to have a ability and although he lacks experience tonight, the stable are going great guns and from stall 2 with a jockey in the plate who rides this turning track as well as anyone, I really like his chances. Like yesterday, we are taking a chance given this is first time out, but I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility that this goes to a newcomer and given the stable's 23% strike rate with juveniles at Haydock in the last five seasons returning an l.s.p. of +£44.00 to the pound stake, he looks worth backing each-way with the dead eight lining up.
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Afternoon bets:
A nice 10/1 winner last night with Grecian landing the odds and we called it well. I'm looking forward to more interest in juveniles between now and Christmas, they are usually a good source of profit for us and here's hoping this year is no different.
Unsettled weather has some of our Ascot plans on hold. It is unclear what the forecast will be like for next week and as a result I'm inclined to sit and wait and see how things develop. As is usually the case with ante post betting, it could all change at a moment's notice and I'll make sure to give advanced warning where possible.
Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet, details before 5.30pm.
2.30 Nottingham Depden 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Has taken a long time to show any sort of ability, but he did improve slightly with racing last year and he may be the sort of horse who needed time to develop and grow, with niggly problems getting in his way. His seasonal debut at Southwell was full of promise, though. He travelled well and ran to the line strongly after perhaps blowing up coming to the final furlong, having travelled widest of all coming into the straight. He got a fairly good run into the race but things didn't entirely go his way and the lack of fitness and the fact that the winner raced away from him probably didn't help. It was probably his best performance to date and, given that he showed similar form on turf last year, he is taken to progress from a basement mark of OR46. He will have to come on in terms of fitness, but he is drawn well to get cover and it is interesting connections have persevered with this half brother to stable star Cheveton, who himself did not race until he was a four year old.
4.10 Nottingham El Viento 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R
Looks a really big price looking at the form of his three runs this season. His good seasonal debut at Southwell was followed by a second to Heerat, who is no doubt Group class. He had good sprinters like Kingsgate Choice, Confessional and Taajub behind that day, and having missed the break it was a good run over a trip which is probably on the sharp side for him. His York run is easily excused, he showed up really well for a long way, but was running right into a headwind that set the entire race up for closers, as evidenced by the quirky Mass Rally winning relatively easily, something he tends to find difficult! El Viento may not be well handicapped but he does seem to be in very good form and perhaps even improving still as a five year old. I can pick negatives in many of these and the likes of Joe Packet and Head Space simply do not deserve to be half the price of the selection on 2013 form. A good draw and the in form stable jockey are the icing on the cake, and I think the price is around five points too big.
Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +22.90 / year: +32.56
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