Just the one for this evening. It has been a fairly quiet week as regards betting opportunities, but there's no harm picking and choosing.
5yo mare trained by Mark Usher, whose stable have had a good year thus far. Mark doesn't send many here but a 3/19 16% strike rate returning a level stakes profit of +£22.50 to the pound over the last five seasons suggests he chooses wisely with those he does. the stable are in good form, with two winners and a close second in the last fortnight, and it interests me that the selection has won at tracks with stiff finishes twice - at Bath and Ascot. Indeed she is a consistent mare, she has finished in the first three on 12 of 21 starts and four of her five wins have come on ground with "firm" in the description. Sandown tonight ought to be right up her street, and she is now 1lb lower than when winning at Ascot last July. She wasn't far behind Rebecca Romero at Bath last September in a race that worked out really well, and she was arguably unlucky not to go close to winning having been completely blocked in her run that day and allowed to come home in her own time. She is 2lb better off today, and is around 16/1, where Rebecca Romero - who hasn't done all that much since - is 3/1 second favourite. The selection has a really good draw in stall three, and should get a tow into the race from Asian Trader in stall 2. If she has come on sufficiently for her seasonal reappearance, she will be very hard to get off the bridle because she's extremely speedy. The caveat is that she is a small horse, and if she doesn't get a good position and endures a bumpy passage, she is likely not to fancy it and probably be allowed to come home in her own time. In that sense we're taking a risk and she doesn't appeal much on an each-way basis other than to save the stake, but the price certainly compensates and, with a good 5lb claimer who has displayed nerves of steel with some of her rides on the other Usher hold up horses (notably Reginald Claude who we've backed a couple of times), it is a risk worth taking.
Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +19.50 / year: +29.16
No comments:
Post a Comment