Wednesday 12th June 2013

Two bets for this evening.

6.40 Kempton Grecian 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

From June onwards I start to get involved with two year olds on a more regular basis, and this looks an interesting maiden looking at the market. I wasn't massively impressed with the Hannon trained favourite on his debut at Goodwood, with his stablemate jinking and unseating the race was left in his lap but he didn't really quicken to my mind. 4/7 looks a little short and he seems to be priced up based on his stable rather than his achievements on the course. I can't say I like any of the others to have run, but I note Paul Cole's Grecian has an entry in the Windsor Castle next week and looking at his pedigree there is plenty of speed there. He takes on horses who I think might come into their own over slightly longer distances and although tonight is his first visit to the racecourse, I think he is overpriced based on his pedigree and the interesting booking of the excellent Jim Crowley. He is also drawn well in stall three, and although we will only play to small stakes, I fancy him to outrun this price and perhaps shake up the favourite.

8.40 Kempton Majestic Zafeen 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

(Total 4pts for this bet)

There are lots of negatives for Majestic Zafeen: her stable aren't in great form, and they don't have a good record with horses first time out off a lay off (0-21 over ten years). That said, there are some questionable types in here at short prices (the favourite for one), and Majestic Zafeen has looked a very, very progressive filly on all weather surfaces in her career to date. She travels really well on the surface, and has a good turn of speed when required. I think she is likely the best horse in the race on this polytrack, and although the bet carries risks with it the 16/1 is far too big - I would make her a 15/2 shot. I would hope Luke Morris can tuck her in from a wide draw and get her travelling nicely. She looked physically scopey as a three year old and I expect further improvement in 2013. Whether she is fit enough to win tonight remains to be seen, but I do think she is excellent value at these odds.

Profit & loss: day: +22.40 / month: +29.90 / year: +39.56