4.30 Southwell Outbid 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 12/1
Eight runners line up here and apart from the favourite and the selection, there isn't much in the way of talent on show. However, outbid has already won a race and she is bred to appreciate fibresand, being by a sire with a reasonable 11% record and related to couple of fibresand winners, in particular Diminuto who was very good on this surface. She looked a strong filly with some scope during the winter on polytrack, and she might still have had growing to do hence she was put away. Her trainer's representatives have a 21% strike rate at this track over the last five seasons and she really appeals to me as a likely improver for the surface, especially given her strong travelling style and good draw. She comes here off the back of a break, but you'd be in clover if backing all the trainer's runners off the back of a 100+ day absence in the last ten years; he has no problem getting them ready first time up and the market underestimates them as an actual versus expected ratio of 1.28 suggests. I want to have a decent stake on here, and save most of it in the event of a place.
5.30 Southwell John Coffey 4pts win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
Michael Appleby's switchers have to be respected and this horse looks a model to improve under his care. He is well drawn today and the key is that he didn't run as badly as the formbook suggests last time he ran at Southwell. He looks a likely drifter today so make sure to take a guaranteed price. This looks a fairly winnable event and despite early money for the Mark Brisbourne horse I'm happy to take the chance Appleby has improved this from a basement mark since he acquired it, like he has with so many others.
Profit & loss: day: -4.20 / month: +23.50 / year: +33.16
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