Friday 26th July 2013

Each-way returns had to do us from the Fahey horse, but it's always annoying to lose in a photo and Gladiatrix was beaten a nose on the line at Ascot. Not to worry, it has to be expected from time to time!

Looks out for possible price alerts this evening.

One for this evening.

6.30 York Corporal Maddox 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, guaranteed, 22/1 Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 3rd

Ron Harris has made a habit of sorting out old rogues and turning them into game as a pebble winning machines, and there were positives signs from the selection's last run at Newmarket behind today's favourite Picture Dealer. He had to be rousted throughout the race to keep his position, but my feeling is he may not have handled the track and he did run on very strongly once he met rising ground, only to find himself behind a wall of horses. A stiffer finish that he'll get today might be ideal, but a chance is taken given his price because he does look very well handicapped. The hood is retained today, and the trainer's sprinters invariably go well at this venue. I would hope he doesn't get outpaced early on, if he manages to lie up with or just off the pace in a good rhythm, his finishing power could bring him right into this if they go a good gallop early. 20/1+ is too big and he may well go off bigger on the machine so we'll have the win only part of the bet at Betfair SP.

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Afternoon bets:

Two for this afternoon, details at 5.30pm of any evening bets.

2.45 Thirsk Miaplacidus 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Represents the Fahey team, who won this race in 2010 and 2012, and saddled the runner up last year. The selection made a pleasing debut at Haydock, before progressing again over the same course and distance in the maiden won by Autumn Lily. Haydock's ground can get very quick, though, and I'm not sure she really let herself down on it. Being a Shamardal, genuine good ground would suit her better and I have a feeling Thirsk's underfoot conditions, although advertised as good to firm, might be more forgiving. She looks a physically impressive filly and suggested for all the world as though a step up to seven furlongs would be in her favour last time out. She has had a small break since then, but with the ground rattling fast just lately that doesn't worry me. She is nicely drawn in 5 and looks overpriced. The Godolphin trained favourite looks plenty short enough although she should improve, and I thought Inyordreams flattered to deceive a bit last time out and showed some signs of temperament in flashing her tail under pressure.

4.50 Ascot Gladiatrix 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A very fast filly who has gone well at Sandown and should be suited by Ascot's demands. She pulled too hard last time out but her penultimate performance was probably a career best and with a good 5lb claimer booked today, she can confirm herself an improver. She is drawn well to get a tow into the race from Rylee Mooch and Rowe Park, and if the jockey can settle her early, I think she will take the beating. Although she was a bit bigger this morning, there were two non runners and 9/2 guaranteed still appeals as fair.

Profit & loss: day:-0.15 / month: -13.81 / year: +104.40

Wednesday 24th July 2013

A really nice winner last night, and positive too that we had our biggest stake for a while on - I can't remember the last time we outlayed 8pts but it wasn't recently. It was a nice reward after a quiet week and it shows our patient approach generally comes out tops in the end.

One for this afternoon, possible evening bets, details of which at 5.30pm.

2pts Each-way Double: 2.10 Lingfield Limegrove @ 2/1, 3.00 Catterick Crowdmania @ 6/5 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill, all guaranteed)

Your bookmaker won't like you for this bet but it looks the best opportunity to net some cash this afternoon. Both look long odds on to run a place at least, which nets a small profit, but with the above bookmakers paying guaranteed odds and both having a good chance of winning, the odds are in our favour. Limegrove is well weighted here and I don't fancy the favourite to give her 9lb. She is a course winner and front runner, and my feeling is she might be able to take advantage of the recent pace bias towards front runners at Lingfield. She is best in at the weights and reunited with the only jockey to win on her thus far. I'm not sure about the attitude of the favourite and he is taken on although he may improve for the surface. Crowdmania needs little explaining, he is well drawn to make all here under the master of turning tracks Franny Norton. He has the best form in the book in my view and should take the beating. An each-way double looks the call.

Profit & loss: day:-4.00 / month: -13.66 / year: +104.55

Tuesday 23rd July 2013

One bet for this evening.

8.35 Ffos Las Idle Curiosity 2pts each-way AND 4pts win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill, guaranteed, 15/2 VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed). - WON

This is an absolute donkey derby, with the favourite Imperial Legend 0/19 over the course of his career and many of these looking unlikely ever to pick up a race. Idle Curiosity to me is a standout here, although she does come with potential negatives which have to be taken into account. She has at least won a race, at Kempton in early April, and there have been signs in her recent runs that there may be improvement in her over this six furlong trip. Her effort in winning at Kempton was a fair one, but it is noticeable that despite travelling well through the race, she doesn't really quicken on the surface. Her finishing effort over seven furlongs in all her recent starts hasn't been strong, but she pulled for her head on almost every occasion and there is a real sense from both her pedigree and her run style that six furlongs might bring about further improvement. Connections tried her over the trip at Lingfield last time out, but she finished last - this is easily explained, however, by the pace bias Lingfield's all weather track is currently showing. The kickback there is quite unbelievable at the moment and if you're not out in front, you're probably not winning. Idle Curiosity started well and travelled well to a point, but got absolutely lashed with sand and was quite clearly resenting the experience, eventually allowed to come home in her own time. Her two best runs have come when turned out relatively quickly after one recent run, and they are the circumstances under which she lines up this evening. This is only her second time racing on turf, but I find it interesting the dam has thrown six siblings, with twenty four wins between them and only one of those on the all weather. It is hard to know for certain how significant that is, but it can't go down as a negative and looking at her finishing efforts on the all weather, I think there may be improvement for the surface too.

The negatives are the stable form, they have had a good year in general but are 0-9 in July. It is not a big enough sample to put me off. Also, we're making a series of educated guesses regarding the potential improvement. The important thing here is the price - if she does improve for the race conditions, I make her an awful lot shorter than an 8/1 shot in this company. The stable send her on quite a journey this evening to a track they rarely visit, but they do have a 1/5 20% strike rate there in recent years and seem to pick and choose their visits. The booking of a jockey who could not be in better form and is improving all the time is the icing on the cake, and I think at the prices we have to have a decent chunk on. We'll stake it so we lose very little in the event of her running a place, maximising our return if she wins.

Profit & loss: day: +51.20 / month: -9.66 / year: +108.55

Monday 22nd July 2013

Just one bet for Monday.

7.20 Windsor Strategic Strike 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, BruceBetting.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Paul Cole's has his string in the best form they've been in for years, and a chance is taken on a tongue tie eliciting improvement from Strategic Strike this evening. He looked slowly progressive having won his maiden, but three consecutive runs between June and July produced nothing. However, the selection shaped better than the finishing result implied at Windsor on his penultimate run, showing a liking for fast ground and leading before weakening tamely. It is fairly apparent there are breathing difficulties hampering him, and the booking of a claiming jockey, the application of cheekpieces, and a 40/1 SP told it's own story at Lingfield last time. It might have been a wise move, because the handicapper has dropped him 5lb as a result and a mark of OR65 looks one he is already better than. A tongue tie is applied and you'd have to think he has had some sort of soft pallete procedure done in the three weeks he has been off in order to sort the breeding issue. This looks a good piece of placement and the booking of the excellent Jim Crowley, who has a 14% strike rate at the track, looks a positive. Paul Cole's three year olds also have a 14% strike rate at Windsor and the selection looks too big at anything in double figures.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -60.86 / year: +57.35

Sunday 21st July 2013

Two races of interest for today.

4.10 Redcar Escape To Glory 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

An interesting sprint. There isn't much pace on, but I'd expect Orbit The Moon, a stablemate of the selection, to make the running. Escape To Glory looks very well handicapped no off OR81 for his new trainer Michael Dods. Dods has a track record of stepping horses from other stables back in trip and making decent sprinters out of them, Mass Rally being the most recent example. Escape To Glory was stepped back to five furlongs at Carlisle last time out, and a first time tongue tie applied. He wasn't given anything like a hard time having been well outpaced, but he ran on at the finish over a trip which definitely does not suit him. To put it into context, that race was run in a time of just over a minute; he can expect to race for around eleven seconds more this afternoon over Redcar's six furlongs. His last run was the first real sign of life since joining Dods, in terms of the fact that he actually saw his race out, and it may be that the tongue tie, which is retained, did its job. He should take a tow into this race from his stablemate, and I think he is overpriced at the odds up against horses who don't find winning easy, with the exception of Al Khan who is progressive but plenty short enough at 7/2.

4.45 Curragh

Joe Eile 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Bedloe's Island 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

A really good renewal of this handicap, and it's nice to see the big field it deserves. Joe Eile travelled best of all in the Paddy Power handicap last time out, and he makes most appeal of the low drawn horses for a trainer whose horses are flying. He should get a decent tow into the race, but it is anyone's guess whether the low drawn horses will stay far side as they probably should - jockeys are impossible to predict. On recent form alone, he is too big a price and looks worthy of support.

Bedloe's Island is the O'Meara second string. He has improved this season for his new trainer and his penultimate run in a big field handicap at York puts him in with a shout here. He was not well drawn that day and did well in my view to finish as close up as he did. He is drawn in stall 18 and should get a good tow into the race from Whozthecat and friends. He possesses the best topspeed figure in this line up and I'm happy to forgive his Beverley run, turning tracks are not his thing. A first time visor is applied, Chris Hayes is booked to ride, and he is too big a price at anything around 20/1 and up.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -54.86 / year: +63.35

Saturday 20th July 2013

Just one race of interest this afternoon, evening bets will follow before 5.30pm.

3.50 Newbury

Lexington Rose 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Biography 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

An interesting renewal and a race I'm keen to play in given our success with juveniles this season so far. Lexington Rose is a point and shoot job here, she was deeply impressive last time out when making all at Musselburgh. She is well weighted and looks a fast filly who will appreciate the prevailing ground conditions. I would have made her shorter on the back of that last win.

The potential fly in the ointment is the chance of a pace burn up between Meritocracy, Lexington Rose and Orton Park, who are all drawn close to each other. Wily Richard Hughes is drawn close by in stall 23 on the Hannon second string Biography, who looks for all the world as though hold up tactics will improve him. Hughes is on record in this morning's Racing Post as saying he prefers Lilbourne Lass, thinking this trip is sharp enough for Biography, but he might have come up trumps with a good tow into the race given his potential run style. Expect Hughes to switch the horse off early doors and see if the others come back to him. He is no 20/1 shot on form and I must say I like his chances of running a place at least

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -43.86 / year: +74.35

Friday 19th July 2013

A touch of second and third-itis has struck in recent days, most of the selections are running above market expectations so I'm not concerned.

One bet for this evening.

7.55 Newmarket Sans Loi 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed)

Some good action this evening, notably the Scottish Stweards Cup, but much of the racing looks best watched. An exception is this sprint at Newmarket, where I find it interesting Brian Ellison, who has returned to form just lately, sends this ex-Alan McCabe inmate for his first run since early June when the stable were out of form. Shane Kelly knows the horse well, and takes the trouble to make the journey from Nottingham for the one ride. The selection has some good form at Newmarket as a two and three year old, and showed one glimpse of a revival at Ripon earlier this year. He then went off the boil for two runs but was put away suggesting there may have been some kind of problem. I find it interesting connections send him here, as a horse whose two victories came on good to firm ground. He boasts Newmarket (Rowley) form behind Es Que Love and off a mark of OR79, he is attractively handicapped. Fitness may be an issue, as may his draw in stall 12, but this does not look an insurmountable task and at 25/1 he looks decent value.

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Afternoon bets:

Two for this afternoon and possible evening bets as usual, details before 5.30pm.

1pt each-way double on today's selections @ 5/1, 5/1 generally (use a bookmaker offering guaranteed odds in multiples) - E/W place double

3.50 Haydock Imperial Legend 4pts win @ 11/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)

The crucial thing here is the booking of the excellent Paul Mulrennan. This race is loaded up with pace, even for a five furlong contest, and Imperial Legend has been known to go off like the clappers and get caught late on. More patient tactics paid real dividends with an easy victory last time, and the booking of Mulrennan, known for his rides on hold up sprinters such as Mass Rally, looks a real positive. The selection is drawn next door to Red Baron and Six Wives, and you'd have to think he'll get a good tow into the race. You'd think Dandy Nicholls will have looked at the race and will ask his jockey to sit off the leaders and come late. The selection looks progressive and had Red Baron cooked when they met a couple of runs back, only to come back late having done too much too soon. I reckon he gets revenge this afternoon.

4.35 Newbury Ruscello 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Many of these have question marks about them. the favourite's finishing efforts have looked weak, Lord Of The Shadows doesn't win often, Opera Box looks well handicapped but her win at Lingfield hasn't worked out and she has looked temperamental (has flashed tail more than once). There isn't much pace in the race, and I would suggest the usually astute William Buick will sit close to the lead or indeed on it, with Opera Box looking likely to make it. The selection's handicap mark suggests he is better on polytrack but he is one of only a few of these to have won on a turning track on good to firm ground. His run at Kempton last time in a much better race was highly encouraging, and connections are on record as saying he may have needed the run more than they thought. He should be cherry ripe today, and a mark of OR88 looks like one he should overcome. The progeny of his sire Cape Cross have a marked preference for f

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -37.86 / year: +80.35

Thursday 18th July 2013

Two selections for this afternoon, and possible evening bets which will be released before 5.30pm.

4.30 Hamilton Amenable 4pts win @ 6/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, Seaniemac.com, VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed).

Represents a stable who have a knack for getting sprinters with this kind of profile in good shape, and getting them winning. Amenable chased too strong a pace at Brighton last time out and paid for it at the business end of the race, and he is worth more than a precursory reading of the form reveals. The booking of Robert Winston is really eye catching here, he has only two rides at the track this afternoon, the other being on an unfancied maiden. Amenable should get a good tow into this from Chocamoca in the stall next door, and if Winston can simply sit in behind that horse and produce Amenable late I think he has the winning of the race. First time cheekpieces are applied, and the stable have made a habit of getting horses such as Fairy Wing and Al Khan winning in the same headgear. 6/1+ is too big.

4.50 Brighton Johnny Splash 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed).

Also ran in the aforementioned Brighton race in which Amenable chased a strong pace. He was another who chased the pace and ultimately weakened, and it is encouraging for both selections that he came out and ran second to The Strig over today's course and distance next time out. I remember tipping this horse second time out as a juvenile, after having showed blinding speed on his debut. Connections were unable to harness it, and he looked a lost cause and a bit difficult at one point. However, it turns out he is developing into a sound horse (runs quite often) who takes racing well and is learning his oats as a sprinter, picking up a race or two along the way. His second behind The Strig was a career best in my view, that horse is a good Brighton yardstick and is better than anything in this field on his day. As such Johnny Splash makes plenty of appeal against the favourite here, and the booking of a jockey with a 6/23 26% strike rate at this track on older horses can be regarded as a real positive.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -29.86 / year: +88.35

Wednesday 17th July 2013

It's hard to believe we didn't get a return from Between The Lines yesterday having called the race almost perfectly. He was denied a place in a photo, the first four well clear.

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released before 5.30pm.

4.00 Lingfield Much Promise 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

The trendy thing these days is not to support unraced horses in maidens, which has led in recent years to unraced horses actually being overpriced on occasion. We've used this to our advantage in recent weeks, with notable success having relied on pedigree analysis, sales details, and trainer patterns. These two Lingfield maidens stuck out for me this afternoon because I'm not over keen on any of those with experience and there are one or two interesting newcomers to consider. Champion trainer John Gosden's string have been slower to come to hand this year, but his stable have hit form in no uncertain terms in recent weeks and I find it interesting he sends two juvenile fillies to Lingfield with the stable jockey riding both, his only two engagements of the afternoon. Much Promise is really well bred as a half sister to Oaks winner Talent among others. Her sprint sire ensures there is enough speed in her pedigree that six furlongs on debut should be with in her compass in terms of speed, and I think she is overpriced in a race where I'd be against the principals Hoku and Along Again.

4.30 Lingfield Dorothy B 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Dorothy B is by a sire who gets plenty of sprinters in the Southern Hemisphere, Fastnet Rock. She cost 130,000GNS as a yearling and is entered in arguably the weaker of the two races here. Drawn well on debut, I don't think she will need to be that good to win this. Her dam's side is more of a middle distance influence, but her trainer knows the time of day and I would suggest she may have showed up well in fast work at home. She makes plenty of appeal and we'll have a moderate interest.

Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: -21.86 / year: +96.35

Tuesday 16th July 2013

Just one for this evening.

6.30 Kempton Between The Lines 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Some days you get a decent supply of 7/2 and 9/2 shots that represent good value, other days the bigger prices are the ones that should be backed. Clients can sometimes get browned off with the latter, but the fact is we don't need many of the huge priced ones to go in to keep our record with them in the black, and it's all about backing horses underestimated by the market. Between The Lines looks very much overpriced in a race with an unusual shape. I can't have any of the market leaders. Hoonose appeals most, but his trainer Pat Eddery's actual versus expected ratio with horses returning from 100 days plus is just 0.23, suggesting they tend to run far below market expectations. He is passed over. Proud Times looks a fibresand specialist to me, and looked recalcitrant on his last polytrack start, deigning to run on only when the race was over. Gunboat has no form to speak of, yet is close to favourite. There are a few, like Steely and Gladstone, who might nick this, but Gladstone's head carriage didn't look the best last time he ran on polytrack and he has disappointed since. Closely matched with him on that run is Between The Lines, ex-Sir Michael Stoute and now with Anthony Middleton. The selection ran well over twelve furlongs behind Gladstone in the race won by Attraction Ticket, and is now 2lb better off with that rival on ratings. Thomas Garner, a good 5lb claimer who mixes flat and jumps, is booked for the ride which is interesting. The most interesting fact, however, is that the horse is turned out quickly dropped in class after last week's run in a class 5 0-75 event. He weakened quickly in the final furlong that day, but went well to a point against much better horses than he meets here before weakening and being eased. Also of interest is the fact that the tongue tie he wore that day is removed. It is anyone's guess whether he resented but there is the chance Franny Norton reported it to the trainer following that run. The selection is bred to stay well, and if he breathing isn't a problem this evening (being turned out quickly suggests not), he might have a squeak at a massive price in a very poor contest.

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Afternoon bets:

A good day on Monday with some each-way money in the afternoon and Nateeja an impressive winner last night.

Just one for this afternoon, we will probably have evening bets released before 5.30pm.

2.00 Beverley Fuel Injection 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes. Coral, guaranteed)

Speculative at best, but there are firm reasons to believe Fuel Injection is overpriced as the outsider of this eight runner field. He was sent off just 10/1 for a good renewal of the Brockelsby, and showed up really well, at one point almost hitting the lead, before fading badly in the final furlong. He is from a family of fast ground lovers, and his sire has a better win percentage with runners on fast turf than soft. His run second time out at Redcar was poor, but he looked really green and unsure of how to use his stride correctly. This could be third run for a handicap mark, but it is interesting he is entered in a much stronger maiden at Ripon on Saturday and retains an entry in a classy looking sales race at the Ebor meeting in August. The stable's horses have been running better of late than at any point this year, 0/11 for July is probably deceptive from a small sample size - they had five winners from forty runners in June, as many as they'd had for the rest of the year put together. They are not noted for two year olds, and a 0-38 record with juveniles at this track over the last five seasons is offputting. However, this is a very speedily bred horse who clearly showed something at home before his Brockesby debut. It was a race that worked out well, and the likes of Picks Pinta had a break afterwards and came out to win a maiden. If the break has brought him on mentally and physically, he can outrun this 33/1 quote. The dead eight makes it a good each-way bet and stall three is a favourable draw.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -19.86 / year: +98.35

Monday 15th July 2013

A pleasing run from Beckermet this afternoon and we landed some each-way money.

One for this evening.

6.50 Wolverhampton Nateeja 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Being by Shamardal and a half sister to an all weather winner Hawaafez, Nateeja can be expected to produce her best performances on this surface. She has looked slowly progressive this year, but her two dud performances have come at tight turning tracks, one of which was at Salisbury where she lost her position on a bend, the other at Bath last time out when she didn't seem to let herself down on firm ground. Her trainer John Hills said the following:

"She rather needed reorganising around every turn which had the net effect of a jumper missing a few flights. Further will be ok and we’ll keep trying."

I don't see much wrong with her attitude, rather I think she might just be a better horse on artificial surfaces. She really saw out her race well at Kempton last November over seven furlongs, galloping willingly all the way to the line and clearly enjoying the polytrack. That quickening was never in evidence at Bath and she might just be a mare best kept to softer ground. Her aforementioned half sister's four wins came on polytrack, good turf, good to soft turf, and soft turf, so there is a logical reason to expect better this evening. I'm not sure Aloha is as good as her market position indicates, and at 4/1 a chance is taken on Nateeja finding the necessary improvement. She'll get every assistance from the saddle with Paul Hanagan booked.

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Afternoon bets:

Not a great day's racing. We have one afternoon bet, and a possible evening bet, details before 5.30pm.

3.00 Ayr Beckermet 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (generally, get guaranteed) and 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd

Ayr has been vertidrained and watered since the last meeting last weekend, and I think that might just take the sting out of the ground and slow the times up a bit, which ought to be in the favour of old boy Beckermet. The 11yo excels on slower surfaces but won on good to firm as recently as May, and as a dual course and distance winner on a very tempting mark of OR67 he is tempting at a big price. Ruth Carr's stable are in good form and the selection's previous two runs came on tracks with downhill undulations that I don't think he likes. Ayr's galloping straight and stiff finish seem to suit him perfectly and there is potential pace in here which might set the race up for him. Circuitous and Diamondhead in particular like to get on with it, and if that pair take each other on the likes of Rich Again, Oneladyowner and Beckermet might get into it late on. Oneladyowner has no experience of a stiff finish, Rich Again doesn't look quite ready yet, and a chance is taken on the old boy who is proven in the conditions at a much bigger price.

Profit & loss: day: +21.00 / month: -13.86 / year: +104.35

Saturday 13th July 2013

Two ante post selections running for us today, the analysis for both has been added below. We have one additional selection, and a chance of an evening bet - details before 5.30pm.

3.05 Ascot Mimi Luke 6pts win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac, Guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Cost $23,000 USD as a yearling, this daughter of U.S. Ranger is one of his first progeny to run. He carries the Danzig bloodline which tends to throw up plenty of Ascot winners - progeny with those bloodlines tend to enjoy fast ground and the sand based Ascot surface. Horses with the U.S.A. suffix are profitable to follow at Ascot, and I would suggest Mimi Luke might be a bit better than a mark of OR68 which she runs off this afternoon. The selection kept good company on her first three runs, very green on her debut before acquiting herself well at Windsor and Yarmouth. She was given some time off after Yarmouth, which might be a sign she is held in some regard, and reappeared over seven furlongs at Chester at the end of June. Despite not appearing to handle the tight track, she again showed a good attitude and close on the eventual winner and Royal Connection, who reopposes, doing her best work late on. I would suggest she might have needed that run, and now into Nursery company she finds herself on a workable mark and 2lb better off with the Hannon filly. She is a fine big horse, and I think she will be well suited by the demands of Ascot. Paul Hanagan is a really interesting jockey booking, and the fact that she races prominently is a positive - slow paces and small fields were a feature of Friday's racing at Ascot and the selection's tactical speed will be of benefit. I think she has a really nice attitude, the stable had their first winner since March only the other day, and at 6/1 (Royal Connection 5/2) I think she is the standout bet of the day.

Ante Post - Bunbury Cup (Saturday)

Selection: Es Que Love 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Skybet, Totesport, Betfred, William Hill) - E/W 2nd

Fits almost every trend for this race, and seems to have landed himself a decent draw in stall 19. Has winning form at the other Newmarket track and will be well suited by the demands of this race, which tends to suit tough, front running horses. Johnny Murtagh is a great jockey booking and the stable could not be in better form. I expect plenty of overnight money for this horse and I see him going off at single figure odds, perhaps close to favourite. His form from last weekend behind Prince Of Johanne looks rock solid and the step back in trip should suit him. My only worry is the quick turnaround, but the trainers' horses are so well in themselves that the selection looks an obvious call at the prices.

Newmarket 13/07/13: July Cup

Selection: Hamza 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, 14/1 generally)

The trends will mislead you into thinking you want a low draw here but I have a strong feeling the opposite will be true. The stands' side course is being utilised for this July meeting, and for the second and third days the stalls for the straight course races are on the stands side. This is the first time that the stalls have had this configuration since 2001, when Mozart made all on the rail, and the four horses drawn closest the rail filled the first four places home (in those days the stands rail was a low draw, this was reversed a couple of years ago, stall 1 is now nearest to the inside rail on the turning track for every U.K. racecourse).

Hamza likes to make all and he has come up trumps with the rail draw in that respect. He seems to enjoy Newmarket and there is little doubt he is an improving sprinter, having won his last two starts easily including one over six furlongs on Newmarket's Rowley course. He will have no problem with the dip, and it is likely he skipped Royal Ascot for this engagement given his 2/2 record over six furlongs between the two Newmarket courses. 14/1+ looks too big, and once the general betting public cotton on to the potential for a bias I expect him to be backed.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -34.86 / year: +83.35

Friday 12th July 2013

Two for this afternoon, possible evening bets will follow, details at 5.30pm. Also, please keep an eye out for price alerts for Saturday as the afternoon goes on.

3.15 Newmarket Tennessee Wildcat 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)

Has some really decent form in Ireland and his third at Fairyhouse last time came in a better looking race than this. Key to his chances this afternoon is the ground, which he wants very quick. He hasn't had ideal conditions in quite a while and it is interesting his trainer sends him over to contest this race. With the stalls on the stands side, he might be well drawn in stall 20/20 and it is interesting too that the horse has hung left under pressure in the past - he will have the benefit of a rail to run against should that occur today and, with form in stronger company in his record, he looks overpriced at the odds.

4.40 York Eltheeb 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 888 Sport, 11/1 VC Bet, Independents, guaranteed)

The apparent second string of the O'Meara stable, but P.J. McDonald is a good booking and the selection really caught my eye last time out. He travelled best of all in the Cumberland Plate and hit the front fully two furlongs too soon, and I have to suggest that it wasn't Danny Tudhope's finest moment. He also raced on the wrong side of the straight, there was a clear advantage to racing middle to stand's side that day, and he was swamped by the strong far side finishers. The O'Meara horses tend to go well at York and this fella's best form has arguably come at this track behind Franciscian. For one who travels so well, I don't expect the return to ten furlongs to be a hindrance, expect him to come there a furlong out and hopefully go close to winning.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -29.86 / year: +88.35

Thursday 11th July 2013

Two for this afternoon, a July Cup ante post selection, and possible evening bets to follow - details on those before 5.00pm.

2.10 Newmarket 

Brown Sugar 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed)

Intermath 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack, independents, guaranteed)

This doesn't look a vintage renewal to me and I'm happy to take on the favourite Sir John Hawkins who looks too short at around 9/4 based on what he has achieved. Brown Sugar is selected against him for the Hannon stable, who have a fine record in this race. The selection made a really nice debut behind Jallota, who reopposes, staying on really well once he got the hang of things having raced on the unfavoured far side of the track early doors. He was motoring at the finish and although there is an argument that Jallota  is a 20/1 shot today and is better value, I expect Brown Sugar to improve past him. He won his conditions event at Salisbury with no fuss, and the likely decent pace this afternoon will suit him (Fahey has said Canyahi will go forward, Jallota and Astaire are also likely to sit prominently).

If there is to be a shock, it could be Intermath for Dave Evans. The form of his maiden win has worked out well, and I think he is a really nice horse in the making and underestimated here. He unseated last time out, but that was no fault of his own as there were horses jumping shadows and hanging all afternoon at sunny Salisbury that day. He was well backed and travelling very well when he unshipped Tom Queally. The very fact that he is entered interests me and I think it's disrespectful to Dave Evans that this horse trades at 50/1+ on Betfair. There is 40/1 available and that's an insult to Evans' ability with both training and placing his juveniles.

2.20 Warwick Art Official 6pts win @ 2/1 (VC Bet, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 15/8 Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Runner up to Intermath at Salisbury, and jinked left towards the crowd on the run in, throwing away his chance of winning when travelling well. However, visual evidence from the replay suggests Major Crispies was already hanging in the same direction and obviously the inexperienced horses were just attracted to something in the crowd, rather than displaying signs of temperament. The form of his debut second is strong and I strongly fancy him to get off the mark this afternoon. I won't be surprised if I get stick for putting up a relatively short priced selection, but I think he should be more like 5/4fav so there's a decent perceived edge there. If there's a danger, I think it could be Henry Candy's Half Top if he improves for debut as some of the yards juveniles have, I'm not really afraid of Hill's or Gosden's, I might be wrong of course but at the prices I think this one merits a bet. There is also the chance of a drift on course which would be nice, so take a guaranteed price.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -21.86 / year: +96.35

Wednesday 10th July 2013

Two bets on a decent looking Kempton card this evening.

6.50 Kempton Thatchit 5pts win @ 10/3 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents Paul Cole whose juveniles are having a good season including at this track. The selection was a relatively expensive purchase and is by Invincible Spirit, whose progeny have a respectable 16% strike rate at Kempton. She made her debut in the conditions event won by Majestic Alexander at Windsor, which was a strong race in my view, but has been hard to rate by handicappers given the fact that Fast bombed out and there were two horses making their debuts. Majestic Alexander has run well since, and I think there is improvement to come from Thatchit at six furlongs. She is very much bred to be better on this surface, and she looks good value against the favourite whose maiden second last time I'm not so sure about, and who also has to overcome a wide draw.

7.20 Kempton Living Leader 4pts win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Has always looked a talented horse but seems lazy, a slow learner, and sometimes he struggles to lay up with the early pace. A first time visor is a applied this evening and the bet is mostly based around that - if it sharpens his focus, I actually think he could be a grade better than these horses. He was tested in much better company in a class two event on his penultimate start at Newmarket, and connections seem to be trying to find his niche - it is apparent they think a lot of him. There doesn't appear to be anything overly progressive in here and a calculated gamble is taken on the visor making a difference at the current prices.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -11.86 / year: +106.35

Tuesday 9th July 2013

Two for this evening. Slightly brief write ups due to time constraints.

6.30 Southwell She Can Jig 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Sire's progeny have a 23% strike rate at this track. This filly looked to be hating the firm ground on her last run and she very much looks the type physically and on breeding to excel on this surface. The yard are in form and she appeals against the favourite who looks plenty short enough.

9.05 Southwell Souter Point 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Sire's progeny have a 32% strike rate at this track. Ran a much better race on his first visit to this track last October than the result suggests. That was a stronger looking race than this, and the selection looks very well handicapped. The step up in trip will almost certainly suit, and a very good 7lb claimer is booked. The caveat is stall one, lets see if Connor Beasley is intelligent enough to move the horse away from the inside rail sharpish.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -2.86 / year: +117.35

Monday 8th July 2013

One for Monday evening.

7.20 Ripon Sassy Brown 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Tim Easterby has his string in decent form now after his usual slow start to the year, and his Sassy Brown showed just enough first time up to recommend her here in what looks an average fillies' maiden auction. Ripon is a track some horses act on and some don't, and an ability to handle its undulations is paramount for any horse who hopes to win there. Easterby's string do very well here, and his 16/110 15% strike rate with juveniles at the track returning a profit of +£51.71 to the pound stake is impressive. The selection is bred to make a decent two year old at six or seven furlongs, but was taken off her feet over five at Carlisle on her debut, in a race where the market leaders went off much too quick. She was allowed to come home in her own time and never hit with the whip, the benefits of which could be gained this evening. With the dead eight lining up, the current 12/1 on offer makes plenty of appeal each-way and we'll add an additional point at Betfair SP.

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Afternoon bet:

A nice winner yesterday with Foreign Rhythm obliging, and what a fine ride Vicky Davies gave the mare. As I'd suggested, she dropped the horse in which gave saved her energy for her finishing effort up the stiff Ayr climb to the line. She deserves the plaudits for being brave enough to hold her mount up.

One for this afternoon, we may also have evening bets released before 5.30pm.

2.30 Ayr Go Jamesway 5pts win @ 13/2 (William Hill, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Represents the Fahey team, whose stable have sprung back into life in recent days and their juveniles in particular. The selection was well backed on debut, sent off at 3/1, but was far too green early doors and unsure as to what was required. He picked up when the race was all over, doing his best work at the finish, and it was noticeable he has a fine raking stride and fairly devoured the ground late on. If he can lie up early today, I think that stride will come into play up the aforementioned climb to the finish at Ayr. I'm not too keen on Straits Of Malacca after a weak finishing effort first time out, and Captain Midnight looks a difficult ride. Captain Gee, John Quinn's well bred newcomer, looks a danger but on measure the selection makes plenty of appeal at 6/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +8.14 / year: +128.35

Sunday 7th July 2013

One for Sunday.

5.00 Ayr Foreign Rhythm 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Was caught wide in this race last year and had to race with no cover, but is better drawn today with the stalls on the far side. A recent run at Hamilton showed her to be in good heart and she runs off the same mark as she did in 2012. Her jockey will have to play her cards a little later but one would hope they'll look back at the recent videos and give the mare time to find her best stride and finish out the race well. Overpriced in relation to Ryedane.

Profit & loss: day: +38.50 / month: +18.14 / year: +138.35

Saturday 6th July 2013

A fantastic day's racing and three interests for us.

1.55 Beverley Crakehall Lad 2pts each-way and 1pt win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

It was interesting to see a son of Manduro, a sire not noted for two year old winners, with an entry as early as the end of May over six furlongs and well supported. It was no surprise to see Crakehall Lad outpaced, but he stayed on takingly towards the finish in what was admittedly a modest maiden. The step up to an extended seven furlongs this afternoon, with a stiff Beverley finish, looks a positive and can be expected to bring about further improvement. Robert Winston rides this track really well and takes the ride, and this race looks just as modest as the one the selection ran in at Hamilton first time out. I would expect he can get in the first three at the very least given normal improvement and he looks overpriced.

3:50 Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y

Selection: Mars 4pts win @ 11/2 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

A cracking renewal in my view, and although there is no standout proposition it makes for a great puzzle to solve and a potentially exciting contest. I'm not over keen on last year's three year olds and although the five year old Al Kazeem looks rock solid, he is taken on with the three year old Mars. Much was expected of Mars this season, but his coming of age performance came last time out for me when he broke through the RPR120+ barrier required to get competitive in a Group 1. The booking of Ryan Moore, who has been in brilliant form this season, is a major positive given his 20% strike rate at the track over the past five seasons and I think if he has the right horse at Sandown, he usually wins. Mars' running on performance behind Dawn Approach and Toronado was huge to my mind, and it looks the strongest form on offer here with the potential for improvement upped to ten furlongs. He looks too big at 11/2.

4.05 Haydock Party Ruler 5pts win @ 11/2 (VC Bet, Ladbrokes, Brucebetting.com, Betbyrne.com, Independents, guaranteed)

Tom Dascombe targets this meeting and his Party Ruler is taken to come out on top in the Nursery. The selection ran really well last time out at Chester in a maiden that has worked out very well, and his form looks a notch or two above that achieved by many of his rivals today. a caveat would be that I hope Richard Kingscote doesn't ride him too aggressively, there is a minor stamina doubt about the seven furlongs at the back of my mind and I hope he is allowed to creep into the contest rather than try to make all, 11/2 looks too big.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: -20.36 / year: +99.85

Friday 5th July 2013

One race of interest this evening.

7.15 Haydock 

The Smart One 3pts win @ 15/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Betbyrne.com, independents, guaranteed)

Vine De Nada 3pts win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

We're now looking for 2yos ahead of their handicap mark and both these make appeal at the prices. The Smart One has kept good company in his four starts and looks to have been crying out for a step up to six furlongs. He tried to keep tabs with Majestic Alexander and Lilbourne Lass last time out, succeeding to a point before fading. Nursery company should suit better as will the six furlongs and a mark of OR73 is very fair.

Vine De Nada was noted staying on well behind Sleeper King and Justice Day at Musselburgh last time out. That race is working out very well and if, as I suspect, the selection improves for the step up to six furlongs, he will be a threat to all off OR78. Mark Johnston's horses have been in better for just lately and the reliable Joe Fanning takes the ride.

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Afternoon bets:

Two for this afternoon and possible evening bets to be released before 5.30pm.

2.20 Sandown Naabegha 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Appreciated five furlongs and a stiff finish when running away with a Salisbury handicap last summer on his first try reverting to five furlongs. Hasn't come to the boil yet this summer but the yard weren't in the best of form. Three recent winners from a handful of runners has changed that, and with promise to be taken from his run in a good quality Nottingham handicap last time out and Sandown's stiff finish to suit, the selection makes plenty of appeal at the prices. The rail configuration has been changed and I expect the usual low draw bias to be somewhat nullified. Needs luck in running as always at this track, but if the gaps come he looks well handicapped off OR89.

2.50 Sandown Majestic Alexander 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed)

I can't quite believe the price on this filly, who owes us nothing having landed us a 14/1 / 12/1 punt last Sunday. She was extremely impressive that day despite beating nothing, and she was running away with Neil Callan crossing the line, a sign of a filly at the peak of her powers. The fairer sex have won this race four times in the last ten years and, up against horses coming back from absences (Fine N Dandy) and post-Ascot horses (Ambiance, Survived) I think she has a leading chance. She won't be hanging around and I think she is underestimated in the market for a filly who seems to be improving with racing.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -6.36 / year: +113.85

Thursday 4th July 2013

A winner and each-way second this afternoon, one selection for this evening.

6.35 Epsom Tamayuz Dream 4pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

The Alamo looked a fine physical specimen at Sandown, but although it was his debut I was a little worried by his head carriage in the closing stages and as such am happy to take him on. Tamayuz Dream looks a nippy type of horse who might enjoy the downhill run and Tattenham Corner. It is interesting Mark Johnston has taken the trouble to book a jockey who rides this track particularly well, including from the front. The selection made a good impression over five furlongs in a decent little maiden, showing up well before fading. He was outpaced at Beverley last time out but ran a little better than the ratings suggest. He steps up to seven furlongs this evening and there is enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest he can improve for stretching out. Of the others, Mick Channon's The Wallace Line is interesting but might need more experience, and anything around 11/2 or better on the Johnson horse looks decent value.

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Afternoon Bets:

Two for this afternoon - evening e-mail will be sent before 5.30pm.

2.10 Yarmouth Mappa Mundi 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

This is a hot maiden for the track. Mappa Mundi has been nibbled at prices of around 14/1 down this morning, but anything touching double figures still represents value and he may drift on course. The selection is a Gimcrack entry and showed enough in a good maiden on debut to be worth an interest here. I find it interesting the money has come, one has to assume the selection is working with Cool Bahamian, the stables other very good two year old, who won the other day posting an RPR of 90. This handler is shrewd, she knows when she has a good horse on her hands and I expect an improvement from the debut run. Major Crispies is my idea of the danger but I didn't like the way he drifted off a true line second time out.

2.40 Yarmouth Flora Medici 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

The Prescott stable seem to be coming into some kind of form and, in an awful contest, Flora Medici can improve enough to master Gin Time on her way to fulfilling a host of other entries in the coming days. The selection showed some promise behind Somewhat last time out but looked ill at ease on the track. I think a straight six furlongs will suit well and the drop in class can see her get off the mark. Gin Time has an entry at Southwell in a few days and my feeling is that that might be her main target.

Profit & loss: day: +6.00 / month: +6.64 / year: +126.85

Wednesday 3rd July 2013

Evening bets for a really decent Kempton card will follow before 5.30pm.

3.00 Catterick

Street Boss 1.5pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Patisserie 1.5pts each-way @ 18/1 (Bet 365, Coral, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Seven runner maidens have their advantages in that we get paid 1/4 odds on each-way bets and that might play into our hands here. I don't fancy the second favourite Regiment here at all, he might well improve out of all recognition for his first run but I wasn't really impressed by him physically and it is also worth noting Richard Fahey has gone around thirty runners without a winner by my rough calculations. Oriental Relation should win on the figures, but although there was promise on his debut, he didn't really pass horses or get involved in the finish in any way and the same can be said of his Royal Ascot run although that was in exalted company compared to this race. We've also has success just lately opposing Royal Ascot juveniles and we can play two horses each-way here and save our entire stake if one of them is placed.

Street Boos is a fine looking grey from Tim Easterby's yard, who had the second in this corresponding maiden last year. I had thought looking at his last run that he would come into his own over further, but he was restrained at the start and was forced to make ground wide without any cover, so I've marked up his performance. I'd be hopeful more aggressive tactics would be employed from stall 2 this afternoon and if he gets on the lead, he might be hard to pass.

Patisserie is ridden by a 7lb claimer who is just starting to ride winners. She is stuck out in stall 7 of 7, but she showed loads of early speed on her debut and posted a nice rating in a race that worked out quite well, and with a 5lb fillies allowance and 7lb apprentice's claim she is receiving 12lb off the two market principals and our first selection. She apparently disappointed second time out but she was running well trapped widest of all and received quite a bump a couple of furlongs out which was enough to end her chances - this has not been reported in the racing media. That too was a half decent maiden and with cheekpieces applied she looks the type who might cause a bit of a shock as a nippier, nimbler type than the principals.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +0.64 / year: +120.85

Tuesday 2nd July 2013

One for Tuesday Evening.

6.00 Bath Sakheessquirrell 3pts each-way @ 4/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

This is a really poor contest but Dave Evans' juveniles remain in fine form and the selection, despite being by a sire who isn't exactly top of my list as a stallion to follow, has improved with each run and may have bumped into a half decent two year old last time out. He has plenty of speed and looks very genuine in common with most of the yard's horses. Cathy Gannon replaces Saleem Golam which I think is a positive, and with the selection dropping back to the minimum and berthed in stall 1, I expect an aggressive ride from the front. I'm not a fan of Brunhilde or Captain Ryan, and if there is a threat it might be the Ron Harris' debutant. As it stands I'm happy to support the selection each-way, with a possible on course drift and most of our stake returned if he runs in the first three even at 7/2.

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Afternoon bets:

 Just the one for this afternoon, there's a chance of an evening bet, details either way before 5.30pm.

4.30 Hamilton Star Request 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

This is a poor older horses maiden but Star Request has enough experience at sprint distances to win for her in form trainer, with Joe Fanning a notable jockey booking. The selection is a sister to Cara's Request, who is useful over seven furlongs but didn't race until her three year old season, winning on her third start. Star Request shows up for her third start as a three year old today, and the evidence of her last run suggests the step back in trip to six furlongs will be in her favour. She was very keen last time out for most of the early stages, and her exertions told late on as she was eased. She was not disgraced despite finishing last of twelve, and the way in which she travelled suggested her future may lie over sprint distances. She won't mind any rain, in common with her sister, and with the opposition not amounting to much she looks a fair bet at 5/1.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +6.64 / year: 126.85

Monday 1st July 2013

Another nice winner this afternoon, one bet for this evening.

6.45 Fffos Llas The Dandy Yank 5pts win @ 6/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Improved and posted a decent effort on his third start behind two decent Hannon 2yos at Windsor last time out, displaying a high cruising speed in the process. I think he looks a better horse on that run than any of the market principals and my only slight concern is his weak finishing effort. However he still looked a bit green and that is forgiven, some juveniles take longer to come to hand than others. The Qatar Racing horse looks a ridiculous price based on his first effort and the selection looks good value for a stable who have had one juvenile winner here from just four runners in the last five years, and seem to be hitting form.

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Afternoon Bets:

An excellent day yesterday with a pair of good priced winners. June was our most profitable month since December 2010.

One race of interest this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released before 5.30pm.

3.15 Wolverhampton

Claim The Roses 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON 30c Rule 4

Laughing Musketeer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 22/1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed)

It looks like there are a few handicap set ups in here, Chinese Jade and May Whi in particular, as well as probably the two outsiders. With neither of the market leaders looking like superstars or anything close, the race becomes a viable each-way proposition. Ocean Storm is my idea of the likely winner, but he has had four starts already and should be taken on. Solidarity showed nothing at Sandown and passed no horses, seeming very green. I'm not a Clever Miss fan, I think her maiden form is very moderate.

Claim The Roses is a surprisingly big price for a well bred newcomer representing a yard who, although note noted for juveniles, have some quality in that department this season and have had their three two year olds to run all go well first time out, albeit without winning. Genuine Quality ran particularly well first time out behind Rasheeda with today's jockey Jimmy Fortune booked. For that reason Claim The Roses must have a chance. He is by a sire, Speightstown, whose progeny go particularly well on this surface and he cost 120,000GNS at the sales last winter. He is drawn well and looks too big at 16/1.

Laughing Musketeer represents a trainer not noted for handicap set ups, who prefers to get his horses winning maidens where possible. A 16% strike rate in two year old maidens over the past five seasons is very respectable, and I didn't think the selection was a forlorn hope after his first run. Ridden by a relatively inexperienced 7lb claimer, the selection travelled well to a point but struggled to get cover and probably wasn't enjoying the ground by the looks of things. He is by a sire with an 18% strike rate at this track and may improve with Martin Lane taking over in the saddle. 20/1+ is too big and he is also well drawn.

Profit & loss: day: +17.64 / month: +17.64 / year: +137.85