A touch of second and third-itis has struck in recent days, most of the selections are running above market expectations so I'm not concerned.
7.55 Newmarket Sans Loi 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed)
Some good action this evening, notably the Scottish Stweards Cup, but much of the racing looks best watched. An exception is this sprint at Newmarket, where I find it interesting Brian Ellison, who has returned to form just lately, sends this ex-Alan McCabe inmate for his first run since early June when the stable were out of form. Shane Kelly knows the horse well, and takes the trouble to make the journey from Nottingham for the one ride. The selection has some good form at Newmarket as a two and three year old, and showed one glimpse of a revival at Ripon earlier this year. He then went off the boil for two runs but was put away suggesting there may have been some kind of problem. I find it interesting connections send him here, as a horse whose two victories came on good to firm ground. He boasts Newmarket (Rowley) form behind Es Que Love and off a mark of OR79, he is attractively handicapped. Fitness may be an issue, as may his draw in stall 12, but this does not look an insurmountable task and at 25/1 he looks decent value.
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Afternoon bets:
Two for this afternoon and possible evening bets as usual, details before 5.30pm.
1pt each-way double on today's selections @ 5/1, 5/1 generally (use a bookmaker offering guaranteed odds in multiples) - E/W place double
3.50 Haydock Imperial Legend 4pts win @ 11/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)
The crucial thing here is the booking of the excellent Paul Mulrennan. This race is loaded up with pace, even for a five furlong contest, and Imperial Legend has been known to go off like the clappers and get caught late on. More patient tactics paid real dividends with an easy victory last time, and the booking of Mulrennan, known for his rides on hold up sprinters such as Mass Rally, looks a real positive. The selection is drawn next door to Red Baron and Six Wives, and you'd have to think he'll get a good tow into the race. You'd think Dandy Nicholls will have looked at the race and will ask his jockey to sit off the leaders and come late. The selection looks progressive and had Red Baron cooked when they met a couple of runs back, only to come back late having done too much too soon. I reckon he gets revenge this afternoon.
4.35 Newbury Ruscello 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Many of these have question marks about them. the favourite's finishing efforts have looked weak, Lord Of The Shadows doesn't win often, Opera Box looks well handicapped but her win at Lingfield hasn't worked out and she has looked temperamental (has flashed tail more than once). There isn't much pace in the race, and I would suggest the usually astute William Buick will sit close to the lead or indeed on it, with Opera Box looking likely to make it. The selection's handicap mark suggests he is better on polytrack but he is one of only a few of these to have won on a turning track on good to firm ground. His run at Kempton last time in a much better race was highly encouraging, and connections are on record as saying he may have needed the run more than they thought. He should be cherry ripe today, and a mark of OR88 looks like one he should overcome. The progeny of his sire Cape Cross have a marked preference for f
Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -37.86 / year: +80.35
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