Sunday, July 7, 2013

Friday 5th July 2013

One race of interest this evening.

7.15 Haydock 

The Smart One 3pts win @ 15/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Betbyrne.com, independents, guaranteed)
Vine De Nada 3pts win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

We're now looking for 2yos ahead of their handicap mark and both these make appeal at the prices. The Smart One has kept good company in his four starts and looks to have been crying out for a step up to six furlongs. He tried to keep tabs with Majestic Alexander and Lilbourne Lass last time out, succeeding to a point before fading. Nursery company should suit better as will the six furlongs and a mark of OR73 is very fair.

Vine De Nada was noted staying on well behind Sleeper King and Justice Day at Musselburgh last time out. That race is working out very well and if, as I suspect, the selection improves for the step up to six furlongs, he will be a threat to all off OR78. Mark Johnston's horses have been in better for just lately and the reliable Joe Fanning takes the ride.

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Afternoon bets:

Two for this afternoon and possible evening bets to be released before 5.30pm.

2.20 Sandown Naabegha 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

Appreciated five furlongs and a stiff finish when running away with a Salisbury handicap last summer on his first try reverting to five furlongs. Hasn't come to the boil yet this summer but the yard weren't in the best of form. Three recent winners from a handful of runners has changed that, and with promise to be taken from his run in a good quality Nottingham handicap last time out and Sandown's stiff finish to suit, the selection makes plenty of appeal at the prices. The rail configuration has been changed and I expect the usual low draw bias to be somewhat nullified. Needs luck in running as always at this track, but if the gaps come he looks well handicapped off OR89.

2.50 Sandown Majestic Alexander 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed)

I can't quite believe the price on this filly, who owes us nothing having landed us a 14/1 / 12/1 punt last Sunday. She was extremely impressive that day despite beating nothing, and she was running away with Neil Callan crossing the line, a sign of a filly at the peak of her powers. The fairer sex have won this race four times in the last ten years and, up against horses coming back from absences (Fine N Dandy) and post-Ascot horses (Ambiance, Survived) I think she has a leading chance. She won't be hanging around and I think she is underestimated in the market for a filly who seems to be improving with racing.


Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -6.36 / year: +113.85

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